Looking at the water vapor loop right now... I see something kind of interesting. Depending upon where the new eye settles in when the ERC is completed, we could see WIlma go from a 2nm pinhole eye at its maxima yesterday, to a huge eye later today. The storm appears right now to have extremely cold cloud tops in the outer bands of a doughnut-like structure, with an inner rim, and then a doughnut hole inside that inner rim. As thge doughnut hole (deep convection where the eye used to be) collapses, we could see the new eye take over there, and encompass the entire area... which would then be followed by a contraction of the then-large eye. The cyclic rotation of the LLC within this "doughnut" structure continues even this morning.
What does not continue - what has never developed, in fact - is the northward movement. In fact, most of the models I find now show landfall over the Yucatan. I find that VERY unsettling, because it is a sign to me that the first trough may indeed miss Wilma, and a second trough may be required to push the storm out of the GOM. Where that second trough sets up and where it ultimately deposits Wilma, I just don't know. The models say south Florida, but I still don't have confidence in that much of a right hook.
Eloise (1975) - Elena and several other near misses (1985) - Erin & Opal (1995) - Ivan (2004)
You cannot start new topics
You cannot reply to topics
HTML is disabled
UBBCode is enabled
Thread views: 37346
Note: This is NOT an official page. It is run by weather hobbyists and should not be used as a replacement for official sources.
CFHC's main servers are currently located at Hostdime.com in Orlando, FL.
Image Server Network thanks to Mike Potts and Amazon Web Services. If you have static file hosting space that allows dns aliasing contact us to help out! Some Maps Provided by:
Great thanks to all who donated and everyone who uses the site as well.
Site designed for 800x600+ resolution
When in doubt, take the word of the National Hurricane Center