I'm looking at the WV loop right now, along with several of the models.
The first low that was moving south of east this AM is now moving north of east - and heading for Ohio. The "tail" on it is not very impressive - at all. By tomorrow morning it will be off the table as a steering influence. A clear miss for WIlma on that one.
Behind it is a trough from the canadian/US border southward towards the NV/AZ border. That trough looks pretty healthy. That's the one that was progg'd to pick up WIlma after the "chase" scenario fell apart. Now there are models saying that one will miss too.
BUT - look at the forecast for the panhandle area. The'yre forecasting Monday overnight lows in the mid 40s - a TWENTY DEGREE downward departure. That's big-big-big, and ain't happening unless we get a front through here, and with that will come the tail that has already picked Wilma up.
Three troughs by Sunday? Naw. There IS a VERY strong low south of Alaska right now that looks damn impressive, but its a long way out, and for it to get here in three days? How?
Also, ridging that was over the BOC is backing off bigtime. The center axis of that appears to be off the west coast now, and I see no reason to believe it will build back in eastward.
What I'd expect instead is what I have expected - amplification as a result of the jet and the second trough. I still think the connection may be made - probably Saturday - and the pickup will begin at that point.
With that said it appears that Cancun/Cozumel are in BIG trouble. It appears that Coz is going to get positively pasted - is there anything on the island high enough not to be under the surge? A 30' surge/wave impact is not at all unreasonable to expect from this beast. For them, it doesn't get much worse than this.
As for Florida, my general view hasn't changed - its slowed down though. If Wilma actually goes inland on the Yucatan - and it might - it will come back out much weaker. Florida is likely to get a Cat 1 or possible a 2 out of this if the Yucatan gets to rip the storm up for 24 hours or so, and I give that a 50% chance.
On the other hand, it is possible that it will stall just offshore. That would be bad for everyone - there wouldn't be much weakening from land interaction, but the windfield would expand significantly from frictional effects, and it would then end up coming at Florida as a reasonable shadow of what it is now - which would lend credence to a Cat 2 or 3 hit.
As for "where", I still think we're looking north of the projected path, and I've noticed something a bit interesting - TWC has narrowed the cone, but the NHC has not, keeping everything from roughly Cedar Key to the Keys in the "cone". I think that's very smart, because the exact shape of that trough is likely the important issue in terms of exactly what path this thing takes as it approaches the FL coast - if it does. I would personally NOT drop my guard anywhere in that area - not until it has been picked up and a path has been established.
In any event I remain concerned about phasing with the trough as it rides up and a significant storm event in the NE US. That threat is not off the table from what I see, even though several of the models seem to be insisting on it going straight out to sea after crossing the Florida coast.
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