Don't look now, but Kyle is a TS again with winds of 45 knots. A little bit later this morning he should make landfall in SC. Look for some gusty winds and heavy rains in that area. This is by no means a life-threatening or damaging storm, but residents in the areas I mentioned above may want to keep an eye on the weather just in case.
There is a tropical wave SW of the Cape Verde Islands that has some strong convection and organization this morning. I expect this to be short lived as very intense westerlys are just ahead of the system. This one's gonna get chewed to shreads.
The SW Caribbean is where Floridians need to keep an eye out later this weekend and all of next week. All of the models (AVN, NOGAPS, UKMET) bring a broad area NW and N out of the SW Caribbean by the mid-part of next week. My thoughts on this: A TD develops by Monday morning while moving slowly towards the NW. The TD organizes into TS Marco later on Monday while still moving NW. Marco has little change in intensity on the early part of Tuesday but begins to rapidly organize into a hurricane by Tuesday night and Wednesday. Begins to move north over western Cuba by Thursday and turns NNE making landfall somewhere between Tampa and Naples by Friday. Of course, something has to develop first, but once a low pressure forms down there it will only be a matter of time.
I'll be leaving later today with my family for our trip. The weather up in the mountains looks to be clear but pretty chilly. 60's for highs and 40's for lows...that's pretty cold for central Floridians. Interesting to know we could be facing a tropical cyclone, maybe a strong one, just around the time we get home. If we get word some big storm is coming out of the Caribbean we'll be back in a hurry....but we are just going to enjoy vacation and see what happens.
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