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Azores #96L fails to complete transition into a Sub-Tropical Storm. Elsewhere, weak low pressure in Caribbean may linger into next week.
Days since last H. Landfall - US: Any 41 (Nate) , Major: 59 (Maria) Florida - Any: 69 (Irma) Major: 69 (Irma)
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Archives >> 2005 Storm Forum

tpratch
Moderator


Reged: Fri
Posts: 337
Loc: Maryland
Forecasts
      Fri Oct 21 2005 09:57 PM

Is the Cancun radar truly off the air now?

Also, as much as I usually respect the opinions of the mods here, why say that only the NHC's forecast is worth something because they are professionals? Aside from the raw data and a few super ensembles, what do they truly have that we don't? A few extra pieces of paper (and taxpayer money)?

Now it does irk me when mets on TV go their own way or lambast the NHC - especially when it's largely to get viewers and improve ratings through sensationalism (witness every GOM storm's coverage by Tampa TV "keep your eye as another storm is set to remove Tampa from the map").

Anyway, call me jaded, but I think sometimes even the NHC can get too focused on the here and now and each model run and forget to look at the big picture completely. The rely too much on models rather than reading what the models are seeing and using the models ONLY for guidance. Other than the insight, the NHC's forecast tracks are usually either right in the middle of all of the models, or right down the middle of the models whose results aren't thrown out.

3 days ago, based on conditions, the models, etc, I called for a Venice to Volusia-Indian River County (basically Brevard) path. I'm not going to jump up and down and say oooh oooh, it's going to verify, but based on the recent NHC adjustments, I wouldn't be surprised in the slightest if it did. It was perhaps a forecast ahead of its time, but in spite of the model's 3/4/5 days points jumping around (1500 miles from one run to another?) - they latched onto something very early when they were almost all in agreement. Their timing (to be frank) may have sucked, but they were showing a fantastic consensus and only trending slightly north.

Sure, those items in the atmosphere causing the original forecast points are gone and new features are in their places, but the song (and dance) remain the same.

I know that the forecast lounge was created to keep the wishcasting and silly guesses quiet during a landfall march, but in doing so, some of the heart of this board went missing. I've seen very valid comments (someone offered an opinion to keep your eyes right on the not-quite-yet Wilma as it could become a Cat 5 - they even listed (I believe) the conditions that would be responsible) get graveyarded and I've seen out-of-line conversation kept on.

I'm not saying permitting landfall forecasts in the news threads is the solution, nor am I saying the forecast lounge is the problem. Somewhere this place morphed from being a discussion board to a board where you either agree with the NHC, are a met, or are asked to keep a lid on it. The discussion aspect during the "long march" is gone, and something went away with it. I wish I could put my finger on it, but I can't.

Yes, I am very guilty of being extraordinarily off-topic for this thread, but as my topic is this board and its function itself, I'd appreciate a little bit of view time for all. Granted, replies shouldn't be given here since they'll only further push this thread off topic, but to be honest, at the pace Wilma is moving, we have nothing but time

Perhaps this post (once deemed to have used up its allowance) can be replaced by a link to a thread with its contents?

Cheers and thanks for your indulgence,
--Tom

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Entire topic
Subject Posted by Posted on
* Forecasts tpratch Fri Oct 21 2005 09:57 PM
. * * Re: Forecasts Bev   Fri Oct 21 2005 10:14 PM
. * * Re: Forecasts MikeCAdministrator   Fri Oct 21 2005 10:27 PM
. * * Re: Forecasts Bev   Fri Oct 21 2005 10:39 PM
. * * Re: Forecasts tpratch   Fri Oct 21 2005 10:39 PM
. * * Re: Forecasts MikeCAdministrator   Fri Oct 21 2005 10:40 PM
. * * Re: Forecasts Mayor of Moronia   Fri Oct 21 2005 11:18 PM
. * * Re: Forecasts weatherwatcher2   Fri Oct 21 2005 11:06 PM
. * * Re: Forecasts Elaine H   Fri Oct 21 2005 11:07 PM
. * * Re: Forecasts weatherwatcher2   Fri Oct 21 2005 11:09 PM
. * * Re: Forecasts Elaine H   Fri Oct 21 2005 11:04 PM
. * * Re: Forecasts tpratch   Fri Oct 21 2005 10:22 PM
. * * Re: Forecasts Bev   Fri Oct 21 2005 10:25 PM
. * * Re: Forecasts MikeCAdministrator   Fri Oct 21 2005 10:05 PM
. * * Re: Forecasts tpratch   Fri Oct 21 2005 10:13 PM

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