Quote: Pasco Co. needs to close also...at least southern Pasco. Mondays's forecast isnt weather you want to be on the road for any reason.
Someone mentioned the front stalling, is this the cold front? What effect will this have on Wilma?
The front has actually converted to a warm front according to the latest surface maps (that is, it is now moving northward) - though I don't expect it to move very far, given the trough behind it and the ridging behind THAT.
As for influence, the issue really is one of the tilt axis. I had expected a more N-S tilt axis to be maintained. Instead the front "flattened", stalled, and reversed, essentially flattening out E-W as it backed. From an atmospheric point of view, it got "ahead" of the impulse behind it, and ran out of energy and stalled, rather than being amplified due to being "caught" from behind.
Until Wilma moves around the edge of that flattened section of the gradient, it cannot move northward beyond that point.
The trough coming down out of the midsection will catch the (now stalled) boundary, amplify the front and likely convert it back to a cold front (that is, drive it south once again), and impart a more N-S tilt. However, the timing on this is such that it is extremely unlikely to get there until after Wilma is either onshore or very close to it.
This is why the southward path appears to be verifying. The timing of the arrival of that second impulse of energy will be critical though for two things - the relatively degree of enhancement of tornadic storm risk near the front, and, ultimately, when or if Wilma takes a more poieward bearing as it proceeds.
That second impiulse looks very strong, with a vigorous high behind it. If it produces a negatively-tilted trough in the NE US (entirely possible) then Wilma would be sucked north or even WEST of north after exiting Florida while riding up in the westerlies. This is could produce a severe weather event in the Northeast US. Yesterday it looked like this would not verify (although the GFDL has been hammering at it for days to one degree or another) but today it looks like it might.
As the approach will be at more of a right angle to the coastline than was true for Charlie, small errors will not translate into huge differences in landfall point. I do not see the scenario developing that I had expected in the timeframe required to bend Wilma more northward, which is a strongly-tilted frontal boundary off roughly Cedar Key - instead we've got a flat (E-W) boundary just north of the Tampa area.
As such the path looks good at least at entry to the state. Exactly when she begins to turn more northward is still up in the air, which is why inland warnings are justified across a large part of the peninsula, instead of confining them to areas south of Lake O. In addition, the timing of that turn is tremendously important for the NE US in a couple of days.
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