That last fact about comparing the recent TS's to all of the major hurricanes in the past ten years, and this whole new "era" of increased TC activity has been pitiful as far as US *hurricane* landfalls go.
At the same time (this is focusing on 2003), I do believe that we will see a differene in storm formation locations in 2003. 2001/2002, a strong Azores High squashed most waves that came off of Africa. Eventually the high weakened, but troughiness was beginning to increase off of the East Coast. That shut the Cape Verde areas down from having an effect on the US. In fact 2002 was dead as far as Cape Verde activity goes. So, we've really only had 1 down year, 2002.
With the NAO and AO being negative this winter, I'd expect that the Azores High would weaken some. Right now it is very strong, but the high has a habit of reversing it's state during the early summer of the following year, or so it seems. This being, you'd expect that the Cape Verde area will finally produce some storms starting around August 20th instead of September 10th. That is ususally too late to have a major East Coast landfalling year.
Also, take a look at the tracks in Gray's forecast. (1952, 1958, 1964, 1970, 1984) and notice something about the East Coast landfalls.
1952: 1 (FLA brush, landfall along Georgia/SC border)
1958: (2 NC coastal brushes)
1964: (2 FLA hits)
1970: (no EC hits, I should mention this is when the downturn began)
1984: (1 EC hit, 1 EC brush, 1 got fairly close to EC)
It seems to me that all of these years have a very specific bias toward Florida/SC/NC hits and brushes. I'm not sure I've ever seen such a strong trend towards to the EC in any of yearly analogs. Also, I'd expect 1970 and 1984 to be pulled in April or June, these years didn't have an Active ATC whereas 2003's ATC should be in "hyperdrive", typical of the busy seasons we've had since 1995. I should also note a couple of these years had strong Caribbean and Gulf of Mexico storms, but the East Coast bias of the storms really stood out to me.
Next year's seaosn should be different, more like 1996, 1998, and 1999 I feel (also capitalizing on 2000's failures). Although it is just to early to know what will happen with any certain, I can see changes comming.
Also, Super Typhoon Pongsona hit the Mariana Islands yesterday, winds of 135 knots at landfall. Guam sustained extensive amounts of damage, and Bush declared Guam a "major disaster area". Not good news.
Also, 5 day forecast (118 hours?) look like a distinct possiblity for 2003...should be interesting how the news media and general public respond if there are any threats shown next years beyond 36 hours.
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Re: Gray's 2003 season forecast it out!
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