Hi everyone.....great job on keeping us all informed.
I have 2 questions if I might.......Do you at all see Wilma curving back into the States or Canada.
Also, CNN this morning said Alpha was gone.....is that right????
That is not the vibe I'm getting off the models in the last 24 hours...
Our options with Wilma after Florida are simple:
1) She gets whipped up into the graveyard within the barotropic region of an intensifying coastal cyclogenisis along the U.S. Mid Atlantic...and "casperates" - my invented term for becoming none-consequentially invisible
2) She gets pulled up the warm conveyor belt steering field and is utterly gobbled alive by the faaaaar superior mechanical power of the extra-tropical system.
3 days ago, if you'd asked me I'd have picked option 2. The possibility that a -3.5SD anomaly, centered near S PA also responsible for generating a powerful Nor'easter (seemed like it was attempting to phase Wilma's death gasp in for a kind of pheonix phenom), was all too tastey to ignore. ...Basically, that Wilma would join the party by getting pulled up the warm conveyor belt - offering some semblence of a "Perfect Storm" type scenario - where the two would phase near the eastern tip of Long Island.. Essentially, a dooms day scenario for eastern New England up through Nova Scotia.
...Since then, the models, particularly the GFS and the those that are derived from the GFS, they have been finding least excuse to keep the two entities separate until Wilma completely deteriorates. In fact, as the models have it I would be less inclined to really think Wilma will transition into anything - more like, get abolished is what the GFS from 18z yesterday, and then 00z and 06z overnight, has been indicating... Though, as a correction and perhaps a better intuitive fit, I think a substantial amount of her mojo is going to getting leached off - kind of like a black hole sucks off plasma from a nearby stellar companion - and this will aid in intensification with all that latent heat injection.
...This is an utterly fascinating, somewhat rare scenario; even in the lesser phased result that is true.
A coastal storm of all seasons really, will be taking place overnight and Tuesday. In VT, there are Winter Storm watches posted and the FOUS numbers of the NAM are indicating better than a foot of snow as far SE as Rutland (I'd show you the grid but the cut/paste makes the data too difficult to deal with)... While that is happening, Nantuckett (Island) should be about 62F (...I can just hear those Floridian's terror over bone-chilling 62 degrees...) with winds gusting to near hurricane force... Absolutely phenomenal H850mb thermal gradient and baroclinicity bifurcating the area signals extreme lower tropospheric instability (not to mention mesoscale frontogenic forcing normally associate with cyclogenisis). This will maximize the PW values that are exceeding 2", over a 14 hour interval. Excessive rain potential exists over an area that has very low F guidance due to anomalous event earlier in the month. We have wet ground and week root systems (thank goodness the foliage is half stripped) and rivers saying "go ahead, I are yah to even spill a cup of water", and they'll be over their banks... All the while, a hurricane is passing some 200nautical miles SE of Cape? Gee whiz.
This is really turning out to be one hell of a stormy month up here in tattered and torn New England...But we'll never making much press in the matter in lieu of the bigger issues down S this year.
Anyway, at least for New England, we really don't need to have Wilma - per say - to have a potentially destructive event, though Wilma will be partially to blame for bringing her fuel up into this extra-tropical system. New England to Nova Scotia are going to have a notable Nor'easter with winds gusting to 55kts and torrents of rain anyway - there is still some wild card about how much of Wilma will be incorporated, but at this time, the full-phased hyper storm scenario is appearing less likely... That really would have been just about the only way Wilma could have had any secondary U.S. or Nova Scotia type impact, is through a hybrid type rarety; due to the fact that the large scale synoptics responsible for important East Coastal cyclogenisis had proxy and presents in the spacial-temporal arrangement of all players.
It just intrigues me that with a ridge in the Atlantic E of 65W, and such a huge negative anomaly along the App. Cordellera, that Wilma can be modeled to get thrown into cold labradore waters SE of Nova Scotia (GFS) to where it just...poof, ceases to exist... I would have thought that a more N turn would be warranted, like the model suggested 3 days ago and has stubburnly lost and refuse to negotiate in the matter.. (can you tell I'm frustrated).. Anyway, it is worth noting that a) this isn't etched in stone and b)...the NAM, which was entirely useless up until last night's 00z run, has been showing a bit more of a relationship with the Wilma and the extra-tropical, mid Atlantic cyclogenisis; much less of a "dumb-belled" looking system and a bit more singular synthesis of the two... But then again, if the NAM solution pans out, you'd expect a deeper result, too - so something is wrong there...
Basically...No Wilma in the sense of a secondary hurricane impact but definitely a very complex series of events over the next 24 to 36 hours!
Edited by typhoon_tip (Mon Oct 24 2005 11:54 AM)