Quote: TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 530 PM EDT WED OCT 26 2005
FOR THE NORTH ATLANTIC...CARIBBEAN SEA AND THE GULF OF MEXICO...
RECENT SATELLITE IMAGES AND SURFACE OBSERVATIONS INDICATE THAT A TROPICAL DEPRESSION COULD BE FORMING IN THE EXTREME SOUTHWESTERN CARIBBEAN SEA ABOUT 140 MILES EAST OF THE COAST OF COSTA RICA. IF THIS DEVELOPING TREND CONTINUES ADVISORIES COULD BE INITIATED AT ANY TIME. HOWEVER...EVEN IF TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION DOES NOT OCCUR...THIS DISTURBANCE IS EXPECTED TO MOVE SLOWLY TOWARD THE WEST OR NORTHWEST BRINGING TORRENTIAL RAINS AND SQUALLS TO PORTIONS OF CENTRAL AMERICA...PRIMARILY OVER COSTA RICA...NICARAGUA AND HONDURAS. THESE RAINS COULD CAUSE LIFE-THREATENING FLASH FLOODS AND MUDSLIDES. INTERESTS IN THE SOUTHWESTERN CARIBBEAN SHOULD MONITOR THE PROGRESS OF THIS SYSTEM.
SQUALLY WEATHER ASSOCIATED WITH A TROPICAL WAVE WILL LIKELY SPREAD OVER THE LESSER ANTILLES TONIGHT AND THURSDAY. THERE ARE NO SIGNS OF TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION AT THIS TIME HOWEVER...PUPER-LEVEL WINDS ARE GRADUALLY BECOMING A LITTLE MORE FAVORABLE FOR DEVELOPMENT AS THE WAVE MOVES WESTWARD OVER THE EASTERN CARIBBEAN SEA.
frankly....i've seen them initiate advisories on even more paltry looking features in the past... since none of this was based on recon fixes, one may be thus inclined to question the reality of this situation... my personal belief is that this is a depression now.. it has a closed circulation, obvious banding on sat in several channels, and convective elements near the core - whether cyclical in nature or not. it also has a registerably lower pressure than the surrounding environment - though the favorability for development is not (as far as I know) an official criteria but heck....might as well through it in there that it has very good outflow signatures...
...i dunno...maybe someone just needs more time off...
of course...in their defense they do reserve the right to initiate advisories "..AT ANYTIME"...
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