TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 805 PM EDT WED OCT 26 2005 edited~danielw
A BROAD AREA OF LOW PRESSURE IS IN THE SW CARIBBEAN WITH A 1008 MB LOW ANALYZED NEAR 10N81W NOT ASSOCIATED WITH THE NEARBY STATIONARY FRONT. PRESSURES ARE BEGINNING TO FALL IN THE AREA AND SATELLITE PICTURES INDICATE CURVED BANDS ARE BECOMING BETTER-DEFINED... ALL HALLMARKS OF DEVELOPMENT. TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION IS POSSIBLE WITHIN 36 HOURS. THIS SYSTEM SHOULD DRIFT NW WITH LIGHT STEERING FOR THE NEXT FEW DAYS. SCATTERED MODERATE TO ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION IS NEAR THE CENTER FROM 9N-11N BETWEEN 80W-82W. SIMILAR CONVECTION IS FURTHER N FROM 12N-15N BETWEEN 78W-82W.
E-CENTRAL ATLC WAVE TROPICAL WAVE IS ALONG 36W S OF 15N WITH A 1008 MB LOW ON THE WAVE AXIS NEAR 9N...MOVING W 10-15 KT. SATELLITE PICTURES INDICATE A LOW HAS FORMED ON THE WAVE BUT VERY STRONG WLY SHEAR SHOULD SUPPRESS DEVELOPMENT. THIS SHEAR IS ALSO ALLOWING PLENTY OF SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION TO FORM NEAR THE WAVE...FROM 4N-10N BETWEEN 34W-38W.
W ATLC WAVE IS ALONG 57W S OF 17N MOVING W 10-15 KT WITH A 1008 MB LOW ALONG THE WAVE AXIS NEAR 12N. IT IS UNCERTAIN WHETHER THE LOW IS CLOSED AT THE SURFACE BUT IT APPEARS THAT THERE IS A WELL-DEFINED LOW-LEVEL ROTATION WITH A PRESSURE MINIMUM AS REPORTED BY A NEARBY BUOY. UPPER WINDS HAVE BECOME A LITTLE MORE FAVORABLE FOR TROPICAL DEVELOPMENT AND SOME OF THE COMPUTER MODELS HINT THAT SOMETHING COULD TRY TO FORM.
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