Excerpts from the 5 AM EDT Discussion. SATELLITE INTENSITY ESTIMATES ARE UNANIMOUSLY 35 KT...AND THEY ARE ONLY THAT LOW DUE TO DVORAK CONSTRAINTS. THE CONVECTIVE PATTERN APPEARS TO CORRESPOND TO AN EVEN STRONGER SYSTEM...BUT THE WINDS HAVE PROBABLY NOT YET CAUGHT UP TO THE CLOUD SIGNATURE. THE DEPRESSION IS UPGRADED TO A TROPICAL STORM WITH 35 KT WINDS... MAKING BETA THE RECORD-SETTING 23RD TROPICAL STORM OF THE 2005 SEASON.emphasis added~danielw
MOST OF THE MODELS FORECAST ENOUGH RIDGING TO DEVELOP IN PLACE OF THE SHORTWAVE TROUGH OVER THE SOUTHERN GULF TO EVENTUALLY TURN BETA WESTWARD INTO NICARAGUA...BUT THERE IS SUBSTANTIAL DISAGREEMENT ON WHEN THAT TURN WILL OCCUR. OVERALL THE MODELS HAVE SLOWED DOWN COMPARED TO THE PREVIOUS CYCLE... AND NONE OF THEM BRING THE CENTER ONSHORE IN LESS THAN 48 HOURS. THE OFFICIAL FORECAST IS KEPT ALONG THE SAME PATH OF THE PREVIOUS ADVISORY... BUT SLOWED DOWN TO NUDGE TOWARD THE GUIDANCE.
FURTHER... SINCE THE 36 HOUR FORECAST IS NEAR HURRICANE STRENGTH... IT IS CERTAINLY POSSIBLE THAT HURRICANE CONDITIONS COULD OCCUR WITHIN 36 HOURS IN THE AREAS ALREADY UNDER A TROPICAL STORM WARNING. HOWEVER...WE HAVE NOT YET BEEN ABLE TO CONTACT NICARAGUA REGARDING THE ISSUANCE OF A HURRICANE WATCH IN ADDITION TO THE TROPICAL STORM WARNING.
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