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News Talkback >> 2005 News Talkbacks

typhoon_tip
Meteorologist


Reged: Wed
Posts: 576
Re: Watching a Few Areas in The Tropics
      Thu Oct 27 2005 10:49 PM

Interesting aspect about the models... As you know, BAM (Beta and Advection Model) has three species

1 BAMS; 850mb to 700mb steering depth near the edges where vortex opens to environmental flow. Essentially better for predicting track guidance with lower tropospheric events such as depressions.
2 BAMM; 850mb to 400mb steering depth is essentially better for predicting track guidance for TS'
3 BAMD; 850mb to 200mb steering depth is essentially better for predicting track guidance for hurricanes..

One must wonder if the establishment of TS intensity will somehow negate the inclusion of BAMS in lieu of the BAMM; and so on to BAMD if hurricane status is achieved.

The interesting aspect leaps out that the LBAR does not include the Beta Effect, nor does the statistical based climatology and persistence - "cliper", and those are the ones that in the 06z, 12z and 18z runs do not want to take Beta westward. It is almost suggestive that to remove beta effects allows the in situ albeit weak tendency to be the predominant steering mechanic, which based on the observations on those three runs of the global based models indeed is a tendency for NNW/N drift. In fact, speaking of the BAM runs...in that order above (1, 2 and 3), particularly in the 12z run we note that the lowest altitude advection parameters have the deepest latitude track, and the tracks bend slightly north albeit slightly, as the model that is run considers a deeper steering field (pressure means above)

In a way, that tells me that the west track could be dubious because it is based primarily on the absence of critical values deemed negligible, which is risky out in time. The CMC for example is also in the LBAR/CLIPER camp, and I'm fairly certain it doesn't use tricky considerations having to do with the physics of tropical disturbances (like the product of the beta parameter and meridional wind speed..etc)

Forgive me though because it's been awhile since tropical meteorology and these models were new when I was there. But, sufficed to say, at 18z the GFN - or interpolated GFS? - is also showing "somewhat" more north at 18z.

If nothing else...it was interesting to see the BAMS be ~1.5 lat S of the BAMM, which was ~1.5 lat S of the BAMD in the 3 runs. Underscoring this is that these have ever deeper mean steering depth respecitively, AND, the deepest (BAMD) is at least in the direction of none Beta Effected model runs.

It's probably not too cogent to use these observations in a meaningful correction because lets face it...deep layer steering field is weak so Beta Effect becomes large when scaling the influences. However, I still believe that because Beta's wind radii is relatively small, as she intensifies she will be less susceptible to Beta Effect; we may just see lest W tug in the models in the 00z run - if not, probably afterwards...

It is all hairy, because if I am right about this basic premise and supposition thereafter, it is entirely possible that Beta will drift more N and never make the W turn; then, we have an important full latitude trough timed for beyond 100hours, for the most part unanimously agreed. That ups the stakes farther N...
Actually, it should be noted that the LBAR is trending W in time. It wouldn't be for Beta Effects however; there would have to be something else imparting the trend..

Edited by typhoon_tip (Thu Oct 27 2005 10:58 PM)

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Subject Posted by Posted on
* Tropical Storm Beta and other areas. MikeCAdministrator Thu Oct 27 2005 10:49 PM
. * * Re: Tropical Storm Beta and other areas. Beach   Fri Oct 28 2005 09:42 AM
. * * Re: Tropical Storm Beta and other areas. wulrich   Thu Oct 27 2005 05:15 PM
. * * Re: Tropical Storm Beta and other areas. Margie   Thu Oct 27 2005 05:21 PM
. * * Re: Tropical Storm Beta and other areas. Thunderbird12   Thu Oct 27 2005 05:27 PM
. * * Re: Tropical Storm Beta and other areas. Margie   Thu Oct 27 2005 06:10 PM
. * * Other areas? danielwAdministrator   Thu Oct 27 2005 08:06 PM
. * * Beta danielwAdministrator   Thu Oct 27 2005 08:16 PM
. * * Re: Beta Margie   Thu Oct 27 2005 08:40 PM
. * * Re: Beta Clark   Thu Oct 27 2005 09:08 PM
. * * Re: Beta Beaumont, TX   Thu Oct 27 2005 09:00 PM
. * * Nicaragua Population danielwAdministrator   Thu Oct 27 2005 09:40 PM
. * * ODT danielwAdministrator   Thu Oct 27 2005 08:59 PM
. * * Beta danielwAdministrator   Thu Oct 27 2005 09:06 PM
. * * Re: Beta danielwAdministrator   Thu Oct 27 2005 09:15 PM
. * * Re: Watching a Few Areas in The Tropics damejune2   Wed Oct 26 2005 04:44 PM
. * * Re: Watching a Few Areas in The Tropics Thunderbird12   Wed Oct 26 2005 05:16 PM
. * * Re: Watching a Few Areas in The Tropics rd261   Wed Oct 26 2005 05:27 PM
. * * Re: Watching a Few Areas in The Tropics Thunderbird12   Wed Oct 26 2005 05:33 PM
. * * Re: Watching a Few Areas in The Tropics Margie   Wed Oct 26 2005 06:15 PM
. * * Re: Watching a Few Areas in The Tropics typhoon_tip   Wed Oct 26 2005 06:50 PM
. * * Re: Watching a Few Areas in The Tropics danielwAdministrator   Wed Oct 26 2005 08:03 PM
. * * Re: Watching a Few Areas in The Tropics Thunderbird12   Wed Oct 26 2005 05:24 PM
. * * Re: Watching a Few Areas in The Tropics Clark   Wed Oct 26 2005 06:27 PM
. * * Re: Watching a Few Areas in The Tropics Margie   Wed Oct 26 2005 08:24 PM
. * * Evening TWD Highlights danielwAdministrator   Wed Oct 26 2005 09:15 PM
. * * Re: Watching a Few Areas in The Tropics Thunderbird12   Wed Oct 26 2005 09:11 PM
. * * Re: Watching a Few Areas in The Tropics Margie   Wed Oct 26 2005 09:23 PM
. * * Re: Watching a Few Areas in The Tropics typhoon_tip   Wed Oct 26 2005 10:20 PM
. * * Re: Watching a Few Areas in The Tropics HanKFranK   Wed Oct 26 2005 09:50 PM
. * * Re: Watching a Few Areas in The Tropics typhoon_tip   Wed Oct 26 2005 10:41 PM
. * * Re: Watching a Few Areas in The Tropics Margie   Wed Oct 26 2005 10:50 PM
. * * Re: Watching a Few Areas in The Tropics typhoon_tip   Wed Oct 26 2005 10:56 PM
. * * Re: Watching a Few Areas in The Tropics Margie   Wed Oct 26 2005 11:11 PM
. * * Re: Watching a Few Areas in The Tropics Clark   Thu Oct 27 2005 10:32 AM
. * * Re: Watching a Few Areas in The Tropics Margie   Thu Oct 27 2005 11:08 AM
. * * Re: Watching a Few Areas in The Tropics doug   Thu Oct 27 2005 12:16 PM
. * * Re: Watching a Few Areas in The Tropics Margie   Thu Oct 27 2005 12:32 PM
. * * Re: Watching a Few Areas in The Tropics HanKFranK   Thu Oct 27 2005 01:52 PM
. * * Re: Watching a Few Areas in The Tropics Margie   Thu Oct 27 2005 02:36 PM
. * * Re: Watching a Few Areas in The Tropics Littlebit   Thu Oct 27 2005 03:57 PM
. * * Re: Watching a Few Areas in The Tropics damejune2   Thu Oct 27 2005 04:46 PM
. * * Re: Watching a Few Areas in The Tropics Clark   Thu Oct 27 2005 08:59 PM
. * * Re: Watching a Few Areas in The Tropics typhoon_tip   Thu Oct 27 2005 10:49 PM
. * * Re: Watching a Few Areas in The Tropics Old Sailor   Thu Oct 27 2005 10:56 PM
. * * Re: Watching a Few Areas in The Tropics typhoon_tip   Thu Oct 27 2005 11:03 PM
. * * Re: Watching a Few Areas in The Tropics La Nimo   Thu Oct 27 2005 11:30 PM
. * * Re: Watching a Few Areas in The Tropics HanKFranK   Thu Oct 27 2005 11:58 PM
. * * Re: Watching a Few Areas in The Tropics typhoon_tip   Fri Oct 28 2005 12:06 AM
. * * Beta... danielwAdministrator   Fri Oct 28 2005 06:03 AM
. * * Re: Beta... BullitNutz   Fri Oct 28 2005 06:15 AM
. * * Re: Beta... danielwAdministrator   Fri Oct 28 2005 06:37 AM
. * * Re: Beta... meranto   Fri Oct 28 2005 07:25 AM
. * * Re: Beta... BullitNutz   Fri Oct 28 2005 07:36 AM
. * * Re: Beta... Margie   Fri Oct 28 2005 07:51 AM
. * * Re: Beta... BullitNutz   Fri Oct 28 2005 07:55 AM
. * * Re: Beta... Margie   Fri Oct 28 2005 09:20 AM
. * * Re: Beta... Thunderbird12   Fri Oct 28 2005 09:43 AM
. * * Re: Beta... typhoon_tip   Fri Oct 28 2005 11:41 AM
. * * Wilma wilma Robert   Fri Oct 28 2005 12:34 PM
. * * Re: Wilma wilma Margie   Fri Oct 28 2005 12:59 PM
. * * Re: Wilma wilma scottsvb   Fri Oct 28 2005 12:51 PM
. * * Re: Wilma wilma trinibaje   Fri Oct 28 2005 02:23 PM
. * * Re: Wilma wilma twizted sizter   Fri Oct 28 2005 02:37 PM
. * * Re: Wilma wilma craigm   Fri Oct 28 2005 02:17 PM
. * * Re: Wilma wilma emackl   Fri Oct 28 2005 01:28 PM
. * * Re: Wilma wilma Thunderbird12   Fri Oct 28 2005 02:48 PM
. * * Re: Wilma wilma twizted sizter   Fri Oct 28 2005 02:54 PM
. * * Re: Wilma wilma Margie   Fri Oct 28 2005 02:59 PM
. * * Re: Wilma wilma Thunderbird12   Fri Oct 28 2005 03:05 PM
. * * Re: Wilma wilma Margie   Fri Oct 28 2005 03:11 PM
. * * take HanKFranK   Fri Oct 28 2005 03:35 PM
. * * Devil's advocate typhoon_tip   Fri Oct 28 2005 04:34 PM
. * * Re: Devil's advocate Margie   Fri Oct 28 2005 05:16 PM
. * * Re: Devil's advocate typhoon_tip   Fri Oct 28 2005 05:25 PM
. * * Re: Devil's advocate Margie   Fri Oct 28 2005 05:34 PM
. * * Re: Devil's advocate typhoon_tip   Fri Oct 28 2005 06:01 PM
. * * Re: Devil's advocate typhoon_tip   Fri Oct 28 2005 05:47 PM
. * * Re: Devil's advocate Margie   Fri Oct 28 2005 06:29 PM
. * * More model questions Random Chaos   Fri Oct 28 2005 06:02 PM
. * * Re: More model questions typhoon_tip   Fri Oct 28 2005 06:42 PM
. * * Re: take Old Sailor   Fri Oct 28 2005 03:43 PM
. * * Re: take emackl   Fri Oct 28 2005 03:41 PM
. * * Vortex Thunderbird12   Fri Oct 28 2005 02:58 PM
. * * Re: Wilma wilma scottsvb   Fri Oct 28 2005 01:54 PM
. * * Re: Wilma wilma JMII   Fri Oct 28 2005 12:46 PM
. * * Re: Wilma wilma typhoon_tip   Fri Oct 28 2005 12:44 PM
. * * Re: Wilma wilma typhoon_tip   Fri Oct 28 2005 12:50 PM
. * * Re: Beta... damejune2   Fri Oct 28 2005 12:08 PM
. * * Re: Beta... typhoon_tip   Fri Oct 28 2005 12:24 PM
. * * Re: Beta... Steve H1   Fri Oct 28 2005 11:32 AM
. * * Re: Beta... typhoon_tip   Fri Oct 28 2005 12:12 PM
. * * Re: Beta... Margie   Fri Oct 28 2005 07:15 AM
. * * Re: Watching a Few Areas in The Tropics typhoon_tip   Thu Oct 27 2005 11:38 PM
. * * Re: Watching a Few Areas in The Tropics Ed in Va   Thu Oct 27 2005 04:50 PM
. * * Re: Watching a Few Areas in The Tropics Thunderbird12   Thu Oct 27 2005 05:21 PM
. * * Re: Watching a Few Areas in The Tropics ralphfl   Thu Oct 27 2005 05:13 PM
. * * Re: Watching a Few Areas in The Tropics bobbutts   Thu Oct 27 2005 10:14 PM
. * * Re: Watching a Few Areas in The Tropics Storm Hunter   Thu Oct 27 2005 10:48 PM
. * * Re: Watching a Few Areas in The Tropics Ned   Thu Oct 27 2005 05:58 PM
. * * Re: Watching a Few Areas in The Tropics StPeteBill   Thu Oct 27 2005 08:03 PM
. * * Re: Watching a Few Areas in The Tropics Ned   Fri Oct 28 2005 06:34 AM
. * * Re: Watching a Few Areas in The Tropics GuppieGrouper   Fri Oct 28 2005 07:10 AM
. * * Re: Watching a Few Areas in The Tropics Margie   Thu Oct 27 2005 04:19 PM
. * * Re: Watching a Few Areas in The Tropics Bloodstar   Thu Oct 27 2005 02:34 PM
. * * Re: Watching a Few Areas in The Tropics Clark   Thu Oct 27 2005 11:01 AM
. * * Re: Watching a Few Areas in The Tropics typhoon_tip   Wed Oct 26 2005 11:24 PM
. * * Re: Watching a Few Areas in The Tropics Margie   Wed Oct 26 2005 11:34 PM
. * * Re: Watching a Few Areas in The Tropics danielwAdministrator   Wed Oct 26 2005 11:41 PM
. * * Re: Watching a Few Areas in The Tropics typhoon_tip   Wed Oct 26 2005 11:48 PM
. * * Re: Watching a Few Areas in The Tropics danielwAdministrator   Wed Oct 26 2005 11:51 PM
. * * Re: Watching a Few Areas in The Tropics typhoon_tip   Wed Oct 26 2005 11:56 PM
. * * Re: Watching a Few Areas in The Tropics Margie   Thu Oct 27 2005 12:18 AM
. * * Re: Watching a Few Areas in The Tropics typhoon_tip   Thu Oct 27 2005 12:28 AM
. * * TD 26 and 91L danielwAdministrator   Thu Oct 27 2005 02:09 AM
. * * Re: TD 26 and 91L Hugh   Thu Oct 27 2005 07:00 AM
. * * Re: TD 26 danielwAdministrator   Thu Oct 27 2005 03:10 AM
. * * Tropical Storm BETA danielwAdministrator   Thu Oct 27 2005 04:57 AM
. * * Re: Tropical Storm BETA Margie   Thu Oct 27 2005 08:48 AM
. * * Re: Tropical Storm BETA Beaumont, TX   Thu Oct 27 2005 09:07 AM
. * * Re: Tropical Storm BETA Thunderbird12   Thu Oct 27 2005 09:26 AM
. * * Re: Tropical Storm BETA Hootowl   Thu Oct 27 2005 09:57 AM
. * * Re: Tropical Storm BETA doug   Thu Oct 27 2005 10:14 AM
. * * Re: Tropical Storm BETA Thunderbird12   Thu Oct 27 2005 10:43 AM
. * * Model Runs danielwAdministrator   Thu Oct 27 2005 12:08 AM
. * * Re: Model Runs typhoon_tip   Thu Oct 27 2005 12:20 AM
. * * Re: Watching a Few Areas in The Tropics danielwAdministrator   Wed Oct 26 2005 11:04 PM
. * * Re: Watching a Few Areas in The Tropics typhoon_tip   Wed Oct 26 2005 11:17 PM
. * * Re: Watching a Few Areas in The Tropics Random Chaos   Wed Oct 26 2005 11:04 PM
. * * Re: Watching a Few Areas in The Tropics typhoon_tip   Wed Oct 26 2005 11:05 PM
. * * Re: Watching a Few Areas in The Tropics Random Chaos   Wed Oct 26 2005 11:07 PM
. * * Re: Watching a Few Areas in The Tropics Random Chaos   Wed Oct 26 2005 10:20 PM
. * * Re: Watching a Few Areas in The Tropics danielwAdministrator   Wed Oct 26 2005 10:46 PM
. * * Re: Watching a Few Areas in The Tropics CoalCracker   Wed Oct 26 2005 10:45 PM
. * * Re: Watching a Few Areas in The Tropics danielwAdministrator   Wed Oct 26 2005 09:40 PM
. * * Re: Watching a Few Areas in The Tropics GuppieGrouper   Wed Oct 26 2005 09:35 PM
. * * Re: Watching a Few Areas in The Tropics Ned   Thu Oct 27 2005 05:50 PM
. * * Depression #26 Forms recmod   Wed Oct 26 2005 09:35 PM
. * * Re: Depression #26 Forms Wait'l next year! Cubs win W S - No hurricanes   Thu Oct 27 2005 11:14 AM
. * * Re: Watching a Few Areas in The Tropics typhoon_tip   Wed Oct 26 2005 05:38 PM
. * * Re: Watching a Few Areas in The Tropics JMII   Wed Oct 26 2005 05:13 PM

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