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Chill falls over the Atlantic as the official season heads towards close
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News Talkback >> 2005 News Talkbacks

typhoon_tip
Meteorologist


Reged: Wed
Posts: 576
Re: Beta...
      Fri Oct 28 2005 12:12 PM

Quote:

I believe it is becoming increasingly possible that the area of disturbed weather moving through the central Caribbean now may take the ball and run into the NW Caribbean and develop, whether as its own entity or merged system with TS Beta, and become a threat north of 20N. The trough moving across the lower Mississippi valley is digging quite far south into the western GOM and seems to be in a position to pull this disturbed area and TS Beta north/north-northwestward. Beta is beginning to move a bit further north at 4 knts, and is north of the model init positions. Don't know what may come of all this, and only the Canadien makes trouble for the CONUS, but it seems that a further north solution is quite possible. If its far enuf north, it could get into the Yucatan Channel as shown in the 12z NAM. Remember yesterday the models were too strong with the ridging in the SE US, and this allowed TS Beta to come further north. If the flow remains progressive (as shown by a number of models) then anything in the NW Caribbean early next week should find a seam in the ridge to make a northward run. On the other hand, if TS Beta makes the sharp left into Nicaragua, the disturbed area may develop on its own and move to the NW. Third, Beta may hold out long enuf before making the left turn to disrupt any development of the Central Caribbean disturbance, dissipate over Nic/Hon, and allow the remnant disturbance to dissipate in the westerlies. This may be last call (we Hope) for the 2005 season, as the longer range shows (GFS) less favorable conditions north of 20N, as the westerlies bring on Fall to the east. We'll watch and see, but the Caribbean still could be trouble for the CONUS next week. Hopefully this will shut the door on what has been historic and tragic hurricane season. Cheers!!




Careful ...last night I attempted to even hint at a N adjustment and I used a kind of tactical analysis of the BAM clusters (the biggest W motion cheerleaders of the band-wagon for days now...) and only HankFrank defended me - D'oh. Which is good, he's pretty damn bright about this stuff... Anyway, the short and skinny was that the BAMS is a llv intended use, which incorporates beta effects along with the advection field (hense the name)... The BAMM does the same, but for a deeper layer: mid-level through H850. Finally, the BAMD does so for upper level down to H850...

My issues were basically that...
a) Beta drift is more effectual on systems with bigger circumvellate (vorticity and torsional analysis is too complex so just state it as so...) and the storm "Beta" is a small circulation - though is growing in time.
b) I have a problem with relying on one camp (with Beta Effects) vs another without, alone, because obviously both apply vectors in this situation... Maybe that makes the argument a wash?

Anyway, it was just intended as an alternate way of analyzing this, and by coicidence, the worst forming model, LBAR was the biggest cheer-leader for a N pull (save the CMC for this context). Eh, not lending a much confidence... Now, hearing/seeing the NAM (the 2nd worst model for tropical events!) being N is....unfortunatley not doing much more to change the opinion... Maybe, finally, another more trustworth run will shift... Let's see: Nope... Again, only the LBAR and the CLIPER (12z) say N... Funny, they are verifying better on these positions this morning... And of course, the 00z CMC refuses to back off from striking Florida in a few days.. Yet, I suppose if we have to throw another entity (75W) into the fray....nothing is going to be correct!!

Still...Like HankFrank said and I agree... I can't get over the fact that after this trough lifts out that is currently over E N/A, heights should rebound near the Gulf somewhat, larger, lesser....

Oh, you want more headaches? Ok, well, a larger ridge response would impart a 'blocky' type regime and supply the (finally, phew) the W motion that everyone is just dying to see happen... While lesser would probably be negligibe in effecting anything but a slower motion. And, either form when looking at the global ensembles is very dern close to equally probablisitically weighted toward an occurrence. So, when you give mention to yesterdays models, some of those ensembles were actually weaker than the ridge that was verifying, so yes and no, but moreover, it has to be an uncertainty how this spatial evolution really plays a role in effecting storm (or storm"s") motion.

Anyway, I do agree on the interesting feature near 75W... Very interesting events down there to watch today!!

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Entire topic
Subject Posted by Posted on
* Tropical Storm Beta and other areas. MikeCAdministrator Fri Oct 28 2005 12:12 PM
. * * Re: Tropical Storm Beta and other areas. Beach   Fri Oct 28 2005 09:42 AM
. * * Re: Tropical Storm Beta and other areas. wulrich   Thu Oct 27 2005 05:15 PM
. * * Re: Tropical Storm Beta and other areas. Margie   Thu Oct 27 2005 05:21 PM
. * * Re: Tropical Storm Beta and other areas. Thunderbird12   Thu Oct 27 2005 05:27 PM
. * * Re: Tropical Storm Beta and other areas. Margie   Thu Oct 27 2005 06:10 PM
. * * Other areas? danielwAdministrator   Thu Oct 27 2005 08:06 PM
. * * Beta danielwAdministrator   Thu Oct 27 2005 08:16 PM
. * * Re: Beta Margie   Thu Oct 27 2005 08:40 PM
. * * Re: Beta Clark   Thu Oct 27 2005 09:08 PM
. * * Re: Beta Beaumont, TX   Thu Oct 27 2005 09:00 PM
. * * Nicaragua Population danielwAdministrator   Thu Oct 27 2005 09:40 PM
. * * ODT danielwAdministrator   Thu Oct 27 2005 08:59 PM
. * * Beta danielwAdministrator   Thu Oct 27 2005 09:06 PM
. * * Re: Beta danielwAdministrator   Thu Oct 27 2005 09:15 PM
. * * Re: Watching a Few Areas in The Tropics damejune2   Wed Oct 26 2005 04:44 PM
. * * Re: Watching a Few Areas in The Tropics Thunderbird12   Wed Oct 26 2005 05:16 PM
. * * Re: Watching a Few Areas in The Tropics rd261   Wed Oct 26 2005 05:27 PM
. * * Re: Watching a Few Areas in The Tropics Thunderbird12   Wed Oct 26 2005 05:33 PM
. * * Re: Watching a Few Areas in The Tropics Margie   Wed Oct 26 2005 06:15 PM
. * * Re: Watching a Few Areas in The Tropics typhoon_tip   Wed Oct 26 2005 06:50 PM
. * * Re: Watching a Few Areas in The Tropics danielwAdministrator   Wed Oct 26 2005 08:03 PM
. * * Re: Watching a Few Areas in The Tropics Thunderbird12   Wed Oct 26 2005 05:24 PM
. * * Re: Watching a Few Areas in The Tropics Clark   Wed Oct 26 2005 06:27 PM
. * * Re: Watching a Few Areas in The Tropics Margie   Wed Oct 26 2005 08:24 PM
. * * Evening TWD Highlights danielwAdministrator   Wed Oct 26 2005 09:15 PM
. * * Re: Watching a Few Areas in The Tropics Thunderbird12   Wed Oct 26 2005 09:11 PM
. * * Re: Watching a Few Areas in The Tropics Margie   Wed Oct 26 2005 09:23 PM
. * * Re: Watching a Few Areas in The Tropics typhoon_tip   Wed Oct 26 2005 10:20 PM
. * * Re: Watching a Few Areas in The Tropics HanKFranK   Wed Oct 26 2005 09:50 PM
. * * Re: Watching a Few Areas in The Tropics typhoon_tip   Wed Oct 26 2005 10:41 PM
. * * Re: Watching a Few Areas in The Tropics Margie   Wed Oct 26 2005 10:50 PM
. * * Re: Watching a Few Areas in The Tropics typhoon_tip   Wed Oct 26 2005 10:56 PM
. * * Re: Watching a Few Areas in The Tropics Margie   Wed Oct 26 2005 11:11 PM
. * * Re: Watching a Few Areas in The Tropics Clark   Thu Oct 27 2005 10:32 AM
. * * Re: Watching a Few Areas in The Tropics Margie   Thu Oct 27 2005 11:08 AM
. * * Re: Watching a Few Areas in The Tropics doug   Thu Oct 27 2005 12:16 PM
. * * Re: Watching a Few Areas in The Tropics Margie   Thu Oct 27 2005 12:32 PM
. * * Re: Watching a Few Areas in The Tropics HanKFranK   Thu Oct 27 2005 01:52 PM
. * * Re: Watching a Few Areas in The Tropics Margie   Thu Oct 27 2005 02:36 PM
. * * Re: Watching a Few Areas in The Tropics Littlebit   Thu Oct 27 2005 03:57 PM
. * * Re: Watching a Few Areas in The Tropics damejune2   Thu Oct 27 2005 04:46 PM
. * * Re: Watching a Few Areas in The Tropics Clark   Thu Oct 27 2005 08:59 PM
. * * Re: Watching a Few Areas in The Tropics typhoon_tip   Thu Oct 27 2005 10:49 PM
. * * Re: Watching a Few Areas in The Tropics Old Sailor   Thu Oct 27 2005 10:56 PM
. * * Re: Watching a Few Areas in The Tropics typhoon_tip   Thu Oct 27 2005 11:03 PM
. * * Re: Watching a Few Areas in The Tropics La Nimo   Thu Oct 27 2005 11:30 PM
. * * Re: Watching a Few Areas in The Tropics HanKFranK   Thu Oct 27 2005 11:58 PM
. * * Re: Watching a Few Areas in The Tropics typhoon_tip   Fri Oct 28 2005 12:06 AM
. * * Beta... danielwAdministrator   Fri Oct 28 2005 06:03 AM
. * * Re: Beta... BullitNutz   Fri Oct 28 2005 06:15 AM
. * * Re: Beta... danielwAdministrator   Fri Oct 28 2005 06:37 AM
. * * Re: Beta... meranto   Fri Oct 28 2005 07:25 AM
. * * Re: Beta... BullitNutz   Fri Oct 28 2005 07:36 AM
. * * Re: Beta... Margie   Fri Oct 28 2005 07:51 AM
. * * Re: Beta... BullitNutz   Fri Oct 28 2005 07:55 AM
. * * Re: Beta... Margie   Fri Oct 28 2005 09:20 AM
. * * Re: Beta... Thunderbird12   Fri Oct 28 2005 09:43 AM
. * * Re: Beta... typhoon_tip   Fri Oct 28 2005 11:41 AM
. * * Wilma wilma Robert   Fri Oct 28 2005 12:34 PM
. * * Re: Wilma wilma Margie   Fri Oct 28 2005 12:59 PM
. * * Re: Wilma wilma scottsvb   Fri Oct 28 2005 12:51 PM
. * * Re: Wilma wilma trinibaje   Fri Oct 28 2005 02:23 PM
. * * Re: Wilma wilma twizted sizter   Fri Oct 28 2005 02:37 PM
. * * Re: Wilma wilma craigm   Fri Oct 28 2005 02:17 PM
. * * Re: Wilma wilma emackl   Fri Oct 28 2005 01:28 PM
. * * Re: Wilma wilma Thunderbird12   Fri Oct 28 2005 02:48 PM
. * * Re: Wilma wilma twizted sizter   Fri Oct 28 2005 02:54 PM
. * * Re: Wilma wilma Margie   Fri Oct 28 2005 02:59 PM
. * * Re: Wilma wilma Thunderbird12   Fri Oct 28 2005 03:05 PM
. * * Re: Wilma wilma Margie   Fri Oct 28 2005 03:11 PM
. * * take HanKFranK   Fri Oct 28 2005 03:35 PM
. * * Devil's advocate typhoon_tip   Fri Oct 28 2005 04:34 PM
. * * Re: Devil's advocate Margie   Fri Oct 28 2005 05:16 PM
. * * Re: Devil's advocate typhoon_tip   Fri Oct 28 2005 05:25 PM
. * * Re: Devil's advocate Margie   Fri Oct 28 2005 05:34 PM
. * * Re: Devil's advocate typhoon_tip   Fri Oct 28 2005 06:01 PM
. * * Re: Devil's advocate typhoon_tip   Fri Oct 28 2005 05:47 PM
. * * Re: Devil's advocate Margie   Fri Oct 28 2005 06:29 PM
. * * More model questions Random Chaos   Fri Oct 28 2005 06:02 PM
. * * Re: More model questions typhoon_tip   Fri Oct 28 2005 06:42 PM
. * * Re: take Old Sailor   Fri Oct 28 2005 03:43 PM
. * * Re: take emackl   Fri Oct 28 2005 03:41 PM
. * * Vortex Thunderbird12   Fri Oct 28 2005 02:58 PM
. * * Re: Wilma wilma scottsvb   Fri Oct 28 2005 01:54 PM
. * * Re: Wilma wilma JMII   Fri Oct 28 2005 12:46 PM
. * * Re: Wilma wilma typhoon_tip   Fri Oct 28 2005 12:44 PM
. * * Re: Wilma wilma typhoon_tip   Fri Oct 28 2005 12:50 PM
. * * Re: Beta... damejune2   Fri Oct 28 2005 12:08 PM
. * * Re: Beta... typhoon_tip   Fri Oct 28 2005 12:24 PM
. * * Re: Beta... Steve H1   Fri Oct 28 2005 11:32 AM
. * * Re: Beta... typhoon_tip   Fri Oct 28 2005 12:12 PM
. * * Re: Beta... Margie   Fri Oct 28 2005 07:15 AM
. * * Re: Watching a Few Areas in The Tropics typhoon_tip   Thu Oct 27 2005 11:38 PM
. * * Re: Watching a Few Areas in The Tropics Ed in Va   Thu Oct 27 2005 04:50 PM
. * * Re: Watching a Few Areas in The Tropics Thunderbird12   Thu Oct 27 2005 05:21 PM
. * * Re: Watching a Few Areas in The Tropics ralphfl   Thu Oct 27 2005 05:13 PM
. * * Re: Watching a Few Areas in The Tropics bobbutts   Thu Oct 27 2005 10:14 PM
. * * Re: Watching a Few Areas in The Tropics Storm Hunter   Thu Oct 27 2005 10:48 PM
. * * Re: Watching a Few Areas in The Tropics Ned   Thu Oct 27 2005 05:58 PM
. * * Re: Watching a Few Areas in The Tropics StPeteBill   Thu Oct 27 2005 08:03 PM
. * * Re: Watching a Few Areas in The Tropics Ned   Fri Oct 28 2005 06:34 AM
. * * Re: Watching a Few Areas in The Tropics GuppieGrouper   Fri Oct 28 2005 07:10 AM
. * * Re: Watching a Few Areas in The Tropics Margie   Thu Oct 27 2005 04:19 PM
. * * Re: Watching a Few Areas in The Tropics Bloodstar   Thu Oct 27 2005 02:34 PM
. * * Re: Watching a Few Areas in The Tropics Clark   Thu Oct 27 2005 11:01 AM
. * * Re: Watching a Few Areas in The Tropics typhoon_tip   Wed Oct 26 2005 11:24 PM
. * * Re: Watching a Few Areas in The Tropics Margie   Wed Oct 26 2005 11:34 PM
. * * Re: Watching a Few Areas in The Tropics danielwAdministrator   Wed Oct 26 2005 11:41 PM
. * * Re: Watching a Few Areas in The Tropics typhoon_tip   Wed Oct 26 2005 11:48 PM
. * * Re: Watching a Few Areas in The Tropics danielwAdministrator   Wed Oct 26 2005 11:51 PM
. * * Re: Watching a Few Areas in The Tropics typhoon_tip   Wed Oct 26 2005 11:56 PM
. * * Re: Watching a Few Areas in The Tropics Margie   Thu Oct 27 2005 12:18 AM
. * * Re: Watching a Few Areas in The Tropics typhoon_tip   Thu Oct 27 2005 12:28 AM
. * * TD 26 and 91L danielwAdministrator   Thu Oct 27 2005 02:09 AM
. * * Re: TD 26 and 91L Hugh   Thu Oct 27 2005 07:00 AM
. * * Re: TD 26 danielwAdministrator   Thu Oct 27 2005 03:10 AM
. * * Tropical Storm BETA danielwAdministrator   Thu Oct 27 2005 04:57 AM
. * * Re: Tropical Storm BETA Margie   Thu Oct 27 2005 08:48 AM
. * * Re: Tropical Storm BETA Beaumont, TX   Thu Oct 27 2005 09:07 AM
. * * Re: Tropical Storm BETA Thunderbird12   Thu Oct 27 2005 09:26 AM
. * * Re: Tropical Storm BETA Hootowl   Thu Oct 27 2005 09:57 AM
. * * Re: Tropical Storm BETA doug   Thu Oct 27 2005 10:14 AM
. * * Re: Tropical Storm BETA Thunderbird12   Thu Oct 27 2005 10:43 AM
. * * Model Runs danielwAdministrator   Thu Oct 27 2005 12:08 AM
. * * Re: Model Runs typhoon_tip   Thu Oct 27 2005 12:20 AM
. * * Re: Watching a Few Areas in The Tropics danielwAdministrator   Wed Oct 26 2005 11:04 PM
. * * Re: Watching a Few Areas in The Tropics typhoon_tip   Wed Oct 26 2005 11:17 PM
. * * Re: Watching a Few Areas in The Tropics Random Chaos   Wed Oct 26 2005 11:04 PM
. * * Re: Watching a Few Areas in The Tropics typhoon_tip   Wed Oct 26 2005 11:05 PM
. * * Re: Watching a Few Areas in The Tropics Random Chaos   Wed Oct 26 2005 11:07 PM
. * * Re: Watching a Few Areas in The Tropics Random Chaos   Wed Oct 26 2005 10:20 PM
. * * Re: Watching a Few Areas in The Tropics danielwAdministrator   Wed Oct 26 2005 10:46 PM
. * * Re: Watching a Few Areas in The Tropics CoalCracker   Wed Oct 26 2005 10:45 PM
. * * Re: Watching a Few Areas in The Tropics danielwAdministrator   Wed Oct 26 2005 09:40 PM
. * * Re: Watching a Few Areas in The Tropics GuppieGrouper   Wed Oct 26 2005 09:35 PM
. * * Re: Watching a Few Areas in The Tropics Ned   Thu Oct 27 2005 05:50 PM
. * * Depression #26 Forms recmod   Wed Oct 26 2005 09:35 PM
. * * Re: Depression #26 Forms Wait'l next year! Cubs win W S - No hurricanes   Thu Oct 27 2005 11:14 AM
. * * Re: Watching a Few Areas in The Tropics typhoon_tip   Wed Oct 26 2005 05:38 PM
. * * Re: Watching a Few Areas in The Tropics JMII   Wed Oct 26 2005 05:13 PM

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