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News Talkback >> 2005 News Talkbacks

scottsvb
Weather Master


Reged: Mon
Posts: 1184
Loc: fl
Re: Wilma wilma
      Fri Oct 28 2005 12:51 PM

Reason the storm surge wasnt as great as Jeanne or Francais was due to it coming form the SW. Im sure you knew that though and were just stating the point. Also everyone that I talked to also said the same about the impact of Wilma over the 2 last year that went near PB and South Florida.
Beta shows great outflow this afternoon and is a strong TS but Im not sure its a hurricane yet as the center appears to be on the northern edge of the convention. Not exactly sure why this is,,,maybe due to the fact there are lower pressures its ENE with the disturbance over the central carribean making it want to tug that way. In general with Beta wanting to go NE towards the weakness and a ridge building over central amercia, its in a tug of war pretty much.
Anyways the models are coming more in line with a agreement (although I havnt seen the GFDL) on taking Beta NW over the next 2-3 days and making landfall near Nic-Hond boarder then bringing it into the NW carribean near 18N and 85W sometime sunday night. A strong trough is forecasted to build (simular to last weekend) over the central US and into the gulf...Anything there should push it towards Florida or across Cuba towards the bahamas during the middle of next week....The CMC model is usually off like the LBAR on the globals but does have consistancy. The Ukmet ( which did the best with Wilma) also has been consistant on a track NW then N towards the gulf and now even the GFS shows (after weakning on landfall) emerging into the NW Carribean then NE towards SW Florida.
First off we would want to see more consistancy and consolidation into the models for the next couple runs and also the exact near term movement will have an affect on strength and direction inthe long run.
With this trough digging into the SE gulf right now.. I dont see much of a west turn into the Nicaragua coastline but I do think it will come very close or if not make landfall near the SE tip of Honduras. Then a movement (quicker then Wilma) N towards the Gulf or Cuba during Monday.
Some might say about Wilma turning up the NW carribean waters and the trough this week cooling off the Gulf.....yes it did have some affect but it wont weaken the system anymore then it is......I do suspect shear to develop over the Gulf with the trough but then again it will be moving (if at all there ) with the flow.
Overall anything could happen in the near term with Beta so we dont know whats going to happen more then we did 12 hrs ago.....Next 24-48hrs will determine if this is a threat to Florida.

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Entire topic
Subject Posted by Posted on
* Tropical Storm Beta and other areas. MikeCAdministrator Fri Oct 28 2005 12:51 PM
. * * Re: Tropical Storm Beta and other areas. Beach   Fri Oct 28 2005 09:42 AM
. * * Re: Tropical Storm Beta and other areas. wulrich   Thu Oct 27 2005 05:15 PM
. * * Re: Tropical Storm Beta and other areas. Margie   Thu Oct 27 2005 05:21 PM
. * * Re: Tropical Storm Beta and other areas. Thunderbird12   Thu Oct 27 2005 05:27 PM
. * * Re: Tropical Storm Beta and other areas. Margie   Thu Oct 27 2005 06:10 PM
. * * Other areas? danielwAdministrator   Thu Oct 27 2005 08:06 PM
. * * Beta danielwAdministrator   Thu Oct 27 2005 08:16 PM
. * * Re: Beta Margie   Thu Oct 27 2005 08:40 PM
. * * Re: Beta Clark   Thu Oct 27 2005 09:08 PM
. * * Re: Beta Beaumont, TX   Thu Oct 27 2005 09:00 PM
. * * Nicaragua Population danielwAdministrator   Thu Oct 27 2005 09:40 PM
. * * ODT danielwAdministrator   Thu Oct 27 2005 08:59 PM
. * * Beta danielwAdministrator   Thu Oct 27 2005 09:06 PM
. * * Re: Beta danielwAdministrator   Thu Oct 27 2005 09:15 PM
. * * Re: Watching a Few Areas in The Tropics damejune2   Wed Oct 26 2005 04:44 PM
. * * Re: Watching a Few Areas in The Tropics Thunderbird12   Wed Oct 26 2005 05:16 PM
. * * Re: Watching a Few Areas in The Tropics rd261   Wed Oct 26 2005 05:27 PM
. * * Re: Watching a Few Areas in The Tropics Thunderbird12   Wed Oct 26 2005 05:33 PM
. * * Re: Watching a Few Areas in The Tropics Margie   Wed Oct 26 2005 06:15 PM
. * * Re: Watching a Few Areas in The Tropics typhoon_tip   Wed Oct 26 2005 06:50 PM
. * * Re: Watching a Few Areas in The Tropics danielwAdministrator   Wed Oct 26 2005 08:03 PM
. * * Re: Watching a Few Areas in The Tropics Thunderbird12   Wed Oct 26 2005 05:24 PM
. * * Re: Watching a Few Areas in The Tropics Clark   Wed Oct 26 2005 06:27 PM
. * * Re: Watching a Few Areas in The Tropics Margie   Wed Oct 26 2005 08:24 PM
. * * Evening TWD Highlights danielwAdministrator   Wed Oct 26 2005 09:15 PM
. * * Re: Watching a Few Areas in The Tropics Thunderbird12   Wed Oct 26 2005 09:11 PM
. * * Re: Watching a Few Areas in The Tropics Margie   Wed Oct 26 2005 09:23 PM
. * * Re: Watching a Few Areas in The Tropics typhoon_tip   Wed Oct 26 2005 10:20 PM
. * * Re: Watching a Few Areas in The Tropics HanKFranK   Wed Oct 26 2005 09:50 PM
. * * Re: Watching a Few Areas in The Tropics typhoon_tip   Wed Oct 26 2005 10:41 PM
. * * Re: Watching a Few Areas in The Tropics Margie   Wed Oct 26 2005 10:50 PM
. * * Re: Watching a Few Areas in The Tropics typhoon_tip   Wed Oct 26 2005 10:56 PM
. * * Re: Watching a Few Areas in The Tropics Margie   Wed Oct 26 2005 11:11 PM
. * * Re: Watching a Few Areas in The Tropics Clark   Thu Oct 27 2005 10:32 AM
. * * Re: Watching a Few Areas in The Tropics Margie   Thu Oct 27 2005 11:08 AM
. * * Re: Watching a Few Areas in The Tropics doug   Thu Oct 27 2005 12:16 PM
. * * Re: Watching a Few Areas in The Tropics Margie   Thu Oct 27 2005 12:32 PM
. * * Re: Watching a Few Areas in The Tropics HanKFranK   Thu Oct 27 2005 01:52 PM
. * * Re: Watching a Few Areas in The Tropics Margie   Thu Oct 27 2005 02:36 PM
. * * Re: Watching a Few Areas in The Tropics Littlebit   Thu Oct 27 2005 03:57 PM
. * * Re: Watching a Few Areas in The Tropics damejune2   Thu Oct 27 2005 04:46 PM
. * * Re: Watching a Few Areas in The Tropics Clark   Thu Oct 27 2005 08:59 PM
. * * Re: Watching a Few Areas in The Tropics typhoon_tip   Thu Oct 27 2005 10:49 PM
. * * Re: Watching a Few Areas in The Tropics Old Sailor   Thu Oct 27 2005 10:56 PM
. * * Re: Watching a Few Areas in The Tropics typhoon_tip   Thu Oct 27 2005 11:03 PM
. * * Re: Watching a Few Areas in The Tropics La Nimo   Thu Oct 27 2005 11:30 PM
. * * Re: Watching a Few Areas in The Tropics HanKFranK   Thu Oct 27 2005 11:58 PM
. * * Re: Watching a Few Areas in The Tropics typhoon_tip   Fri Oct 28 2005 12:06 AM
. * * Beta... danielwAdministrator   Fri Oct 28 2005 06:03 AM
. * * Re: Beta... BullitNutz   Fri Oct 28 2005 06:15 AM
. * * Re: Beta... danielwAdministrator   Fri Oct 28 2005 06:37 AM
. * * Re: Beta... meranto   Fri Oct 28 2005 07:25 AM
. * * Re: Beta... BullitNutz   Fri Oct 28 2005 07:36 AM
. * * Re: Beta... Margie   Fri Oct 28 2005 07:51 AM
. * * Re: Beta... BullitNutz   Fri Oct 28 2005 07:55 AM
. * * Re: Beta... Margie   Fri Oct 28 2005 09:20 AM
. * * Re: Beta... Thunderbird12   Fri Oct 28 2005 09:43 AM
. * * Re: Beta... typhoon_tip   Fri Oct 28 2005 11:41 AM
. * * Wilma wilma Robert   Fri Oct 28 2005 12:34 PM
. * * Re: Wilma wilma Margie   Fri Oct 28 2005 12:59 PM
. * * Re: Wilma wilma scottsvb   Fri Oct 28 2005 12:51 PM
. * * Re: Wilma wilma trinibaje   Fri Oct 28 2005 02:23 PM
. * * Re: Wilma wilma twizted sizter   Fri Oct 28 2005 02:37 PM
. * * Re: Wilma wilma craigm   Fri Oct 28 2005 02:17 PM
. * * Re: Wilma wilma emackl   Fri Oct 28 2005 01:28 PM
. * * Re: Wilma wilma Thunderbird12   Fri Oct 28 2005 02:48 PM
. * * Re: Wilma wilma twizted sizter   Fri Oct 28 2005 02:54 PM
. * * Re: Wilma wilma Margie   Fri Oct 28 2005 02:59 PM
. * * Re: Wilma wilma Thunderbird12   Fri Oct 28 2005 03:05 PM
. * * Re: Wilma wilma Margie   Fri Oct 28 2005 03:11 PM
. * * take HanKFranK   Fri Oct 28 2005 03:35 PM
. * * Devil's advocate typhoon_tip   Fri Oct 28 2005 04:34 PM
. * * Re: Devil's advocate Margie   Fri Oct 28 2005 05:16 PM
. * * Re: Devil's advocate typhoon_tip   Fri Oct 28 2005 05:25 PM
. * * Re: Devil's advocate Margie   Fri Oct 28 2005 05:34 PM
. * * Re: Devil's advocate typhoon_tip   Fri Oct 28 2005 06:01 PM
. * * Re: Devil's advocate typhoon_tip   Fri Oct 28 2005 05:47 PM
. * * Re: Devil's advocate Margie   Fri Oct 28 2005 06:29 PM
. * * More model questions Random Chaos   Fri Oct 28 2005 06:02 PM
. * * Re: More model questions typhoon_tip   Fri Oct 28 2005 06:42 PM
. * * Re: take Old Sailor   Fri Oct 28 2005 03:43 PM
. * * Re: take emackl   Fri Oct 28 2005 03:41 PM
. * * Vortex Thunderbird12   Fri Oct 28 2005 02:58 PM
. * * Re: Wilma wilma scottsvb   Fri Oct 28 2005 01:54 PM
. * * Re: Wilma wilma JMII   Fri Oct 28 2005 12:46 PM
. * * Re: Wilma wilma typhoon_tip   Fri Oct 28 2005 12:44 PM
. * * Re: Wilma wilma typhoon_tip   Fri Oct 28 2005 12:50 PM
. * * Re: Beta... damejune2   Fri Oct 28 2005 12:08 PM
. * * Re: Beta... typhoon_tip   Fri Oct 28 2005 12:24 PM
. * * Re: Beta... Steve H1   Fri Oct 28 2005 11:32 AM
. * * Re: Beta... typhoon_tip   Fri Oct 28 2005 12:12 PM
. * * Re: Beta... Margie   Fri Oct 28 2005 07:15 AM
. * * Re: Watching a Few Areas in The Tropics typhoon_tip   Thu Oct 27 2005 11:38 PM
. * * Re: Watching a Few Areas in The Tropics Ed in Va   Thu Oct 27 2005 04:50 PM
. * * Re: Watching a Few Areas in The Tropics Thunderbird12   Thu Oct 27 2005 05:21 PM
. * * Re: Watching a Few Areas in The Tropics ralphfl   Thu Oct 27 2005 05:13 PM
. * * Re: Watching a Few Areas in The Tropics bobbutts   Thu Oct 27 2005 10:14 PM
. * * Re: Watching a Few Areas in The Tropics Storm Hunter   Thu Oct 27 2005 10:48 PM
. * * Re: Watching a Few Areas in The Tropics Ned   Thu Oct 27 2005 05:58 PM
. * * Re: Watching a Few Areas in The Tropics StPeteBill   Thu Oct 27 2005 08:03 PM
. * * Re: Watching a Few Areas in The Tropics Ned   Fri Oct 28 2005 06:34 AM
. * * Re: Watching a Few Areas in The Tropics GuppieGrouper   Fri Oct 28 2005 07:10 AM
. * * Re: Watching a Few Areas in The Tropics Margie   Thu Oct 27 2005 04:19 PM
. * * Re: Watching a Few Areas in The Tropics Bloodstar   Thu Oct 27 2005 02:34 PM
. * * Re: Watching a Few Areas in The Tropics Clark   Thu Oct 27 2005 11:01 AM
. * * Re: Watching a Few Areas in The Tropics typhoon_tip   Wed Oct 26 2005 11:24 PM
. * * Re: Watching a Few Areas in The Tropics Margie   Wed Oct 26 2005 11:34 PM
. * * Re: Watching a Few Areas in The Tropics danielwAdministrator   Wed Oct 26 2005 11:41 PM
. * * Re: Watching a Few Areas in The Tropics typhoon_tip   Wed Oct 26 2005 11:48 PM
. * * Re: Watching a Few Areas in The Tropics danielwAdministrator   Wed Oct 26 2005 11:51 PM
. * * Re: Watching a Few Areas in The Tropics typhoon_tip   Wed Oct 26 2005 11:56 PM
. * * Re: Watching a Few Areas in The Tropics Margie   Thu Oct 27 2005 12:18 AM
. * * Re: Watching a Few Areas in The Tropics typhoon_tip   Thu Oct 27 2005 12:28 AM
. * * TD 26 and 91L danielwAdministrator   Thu Oct 27 2005 02:09 AM
. * * Re: TD 26 and 91L Hugh   Thu Oct 27 2005 07:00 AM
. * * Re: TD 26 danielwAdministrator   Thu Oct 27 2005 03:10 AM
. * * Tropical Storm BETA danielwAdministrator   Thu Oct 27 2005 04:57 AM
. * * Re: Tropical Storm BETA Margie   Thu Oct 27 2005 08:48 AM
. * * Re: Tropical Storm BETA Beaumont, TX   Thu Oct 27 2005 09:07 AM
. * * Re: Tropical Storm BETA Thunderbird12   Thu Oct 27 2005 09:26 AM
. * * Re: Tropical Storm BETA Hootowl   Thu Oct 27 2005 09:57 AM
. * * Re: Tropical Storm BETA doug   Thu Oct 27 2005 10:14 AM
. * * Re: Tropical Storm BETA Thunderbird12   Thu Oct 27 2005 10:43 AM
. * * Model Runs danielwAdministrator   Thu Oct 27 2005 12:08 AM
. * * Re: Model Runs typhoon_tip   Thu Oct 27 2005 12:20 AM
. * * Re: Watching a Few Areas in The Tropics danielwAdministrator   Wed Oct 26 2005 11:04 PM
. * * Re: Watching a Few Areas in The Tropics typhoon_tip   Wed Oct 26 2005 11:17 PM
. * * Re: Watching a Few Areas in The Tropics Random Chaos   Wed Oct 26 2005 11:04 PM
. * * Re: Watching a Few Areas in The Tropics typhoon_tip   Wed Oct 26 2005 11:05 PM
. * * Re: Watching a Few Areas in The Tropics Random Chaos   Wed Oct 26 2005 11:07 PM
. * * Re: Watching a Few Areas in The Tropics Random Chaos   Wed Oct 26 2005 10:20 PM
. * * Re: Watching a Few Areas in The Tropics danielwAdministrator   Wed Oct 26 2005 10:46 PM
. * * Re: Watching a Few Areas in The Tropics CoalCracker   Wed Oct 26 2005 10:45 PM
. * * Re: Watching a Few Areas in The Tropics danielwAdministrator   Wed Oct 26 2005 09:40 PM
. * * Re: Watching a Few Areas in The Tropics GuppieGrouper   Wed Oct 26 2005 09:35 PM
. * * Re: Watching a Few Areas in The Tropics Ned   Thu Oct 27 2005 05:50 PM
. * * Depression #26 Forms recmod   Wed Oct 26 2005 09:35 PM
. * * Re: Depression #26 Forms Wait'l next year! Cubs win W S - No hurricanes   Thu Oct 27 2005 11:14 AM
. * * Re: Watching a Few Areas in The Tropics typhoon_tip   Wed Oct 26 2005 05:38 PM
. * * Re: Watching a Few Areas in The Tropics JMII   Wed Oct 26 2005 05:13 PM

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