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News Talkback >> 2005 News Talkbacks

typhoon_tip
Meteorologist


Reged: Wed
Posts: 576
Re: Beta Moves West
      Sat Oct 29 2005 01:02 AM

Hi Margie...for what it's worth, here is our last interchange on that disturbance

Quote:

That's not what I'm wanting to know.

I read the TWD and this is what it had to say (they tend to mainly be observational):

A MIDDLE TO UPPER LEVEL LOW CENTER IS NEAR 10N57W. CYCLONIC FLOW AROUND THIS LOW CENTER COVERS THE CARIBBEAN SEA AND INLAND SECTIONS OF NORTHEASTERN SOUTH AMERICA...AND THE ATLANTIC OCEAN FROM 4N TO AT LEAST 20N AND POSSIBLY A BIT MORE TO THE NORTH BETWEEN 50W AND 65W. ISOLATED TO WIDELY SCATTERED MODERATE SHOWERS AND LOCALLY STRONG THUNDERSTORMS FROM 5N TO 12N BETWEEN 52W AND 63W. THE CARIBBEAN SEA FROM I9N52W TO 9N63W.

It just appears to me that it is barreling into the Caribbean and already pulling some moisture from the tropical wave+91L. I want to know the implications of how it could interact with the tropical wave and the high that is over the central Caribbean. Remember there is no vorticity currently at all with the tropical wave.

BTW on the NRL site, they have switched the image of 91L to the other tropical wave in the central Caribbean, so I'm guessing that 91L has been mostly absorbed there, but NRL is still going to refer to it as 91L?





Quote:


Oh...I see... well, in that case.. not sure what the implications will be but in the hierarchy of atmospheric phenomenon, believe it or not, .the u/a low will always win... If it barrels along and tumbles into the western caribbean, it would be shredding the convective elements and absorbing them into the circulation core of the u/a vortex, as well as damping out the more typical upper level wave structure in the atmosphere - speaking in terms of the central Caribbean wave that is....

As for Beta, with more stowed momentum and development she'd fight off the impending shear quite a bit but would eventually subcumb by being attenuated until it was too weak to fight any more and it too would get gobbled alive; that is, should the unlikely occur with the u/a low, that it would careen smartly into Beta's vicinity...

...the models do not really show this feature too well and so it is unclear if/what/when/how it will interact with any activity further down the line. However, with a deep layer subtropical ridge N and NW tending to gain amplitude, it would probably tend this feature on a continued W or perhaps slightly WNW heading.. It would interesting really, because it would likely then have to slow down near the Puerto Rico to Cuban Archipelago area and spin for awhile - if not spin down.




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Entire topic
Subject Posted by Posted on
* Beta Now Category 3, Landfall in Nicaragua Later Today MikeCAdministrator Sat Oct 29 2005 01:02 AM
. * * Re: intensity forecast... Chemstud2004   Sun Oct 30 2005 01:59 AM
. * * Beta 0815Z danielwAdministrator   Sun Oct 30 2005 03:55 AM
. * * Beta-Major Hurricane danielwAdministrator   Sun Oct 30 2005 04:43 AM
. * * San Andreas Island danielwAdministrator   Sun Oct 30 2005 05:51 AM
. * * Re: San Andreas Island Cycloneye11   Sun Oct 30 2005 06:26 AM
. * * Re: Beta Moves West Wait'l next year! Cubs win W S - No hurricanes   Sat Oct 29 2005 11:33 AM
. * * Re: Beta Moves West Margie   Fri Oct 28 2005 09:11 PM
. * * Re: Beta Moves West ralphfl   Fri Oct 28 2005 10:47 PM
. * * Re: Beta Moves West Random Chaos   Fri Oct 28 2005 10:55 PM
. * * Re: Beta Moves West HanKFranK   Fri Oct 28 2005 11:10 PM
. * * Re: Beta Moves West Tak   Sat Oct 29 2005 12:53 AM
. * * Re: Beta Moves West Margie   Sat Oct 29 2005 12:46 AM
. * * Re: Beta Moves West typhoon_tip   Sat Oct 29 2005 01:02 AM
. * * Re: Beta Moves West GuppieGrouper   Sat Oct 29 2005 07:56 AM
. * * Re: Beta Moves West typhoon_tip   Sat Oct 29 2005 12:37 PM
. * * Re: Beta Moves West Hugh   Sat Oct 29 2005 09:15 AM
. * * Hurricane Beta Random Chaos   Sat Oct 29 2005 08:58 AM
. * * Re: Beta Moves West GuppieGrouper   Fri Oct 28 2005 07:54 PM
. * * Re: Beta Moves West Beaumont, TX   Sat Oct 29 2005 09:53 AM
. * * Re: Beta Moves West JohnS   Sat Oct 29 2005 10:40 AM
. * * Re: Beta Moves West Margie   Sat Oct 29 2005 11:56 AM
. * * Re: Beta Moves West GuppieGrouper   Sat Oct 29 2005 11:35 AM
. * * Re: Beta Moves West Hugh   Sat Oct 29 2005 10:35 AM
. * * Re: Beta Moves West Thunderbird12   Sat Oct 29 2005 11:43 AM
. * * Re: Beta Moves West HanKFranK   Sat Oct 29 2005 12:05 PM
. * * Re: Beta Moves West roatanisland   Sat Oct 29 2005 12:16 PM
. * * Re: Beta Moves West typhoon_tip   Sat Oct 29 2005 12:57 PM
. * * Re: Beta Moves West HanKFranK   Sat Oct 29 2005 02:58 PM
. * * Re: Beta Moves West Storm Hunter   Sat Oct 29 2005 04:33 PM
. * * Re: Beta Moves West Margie   Sat Oct 29 2005 06:14 PM
. * * Re: Beta Moves West damejune2   Sat Oct 29 2005 04:40 PM
. * * Re: Beta Moves West GuppieGrouper   Sat Oct 29 2005 05:36 PM
. * * Thanks ftlaudbob   Sat Oct 29 2005 10:40 AM
. * * Re: Thanks SEFL   Sat Oct 29 2005 05:16 PM
. * * Re: Thanks jeangfl   Sun Oct 30 2005 07:55 AM
. * * Re: Thanks weatherwatcher999   Sun Oct 30 2005 08:34 AM
. * * Re: Thanks GuppieGrouper   Sun Oct 30 2005 08:44 AM
. * * Re: Thanks Ed DunhamAdministrator   Sun Oct 30 2005 08:55 AM
. * * Re: Thanks Wxwatcher2   Sun Oct 30 2005 09:01 AM
. * * Re: Thanks Tropics Guy   Sat Oct 29 2005 07:53 PM
. * * Re: Thanks CaneTrackerInSoFl   Sat Oct 29 2005 10:20 PM
. * * Re: Thanks Random Chaos   Sat Oct 29 2005 10:39 PM
. * * Re: Thanks Hurricane Fredrick 1979   Sat Oct 29 2005 11:15 PM
. * * Re: Thanks Margie   Sat Oct 29 2005 11:25 PM
. * * Beta: Category 2 Random Chaos   Sat Oct 29 2005 11:25 PM
. * * Re: Beta: Category 2 Margie   Sat Oct 29 2005 11:36 PM
. * * Final Intensity analysis Chemstud2004   Sun Oct 30 2005 01:47 AM
. * * Re: Final Intensity analysis Margie   Sun Oct 30 2005 01:54 AM
. * * Re: Beta: Category 2 HanKFranK   Sun Oct 30 2005 12:57 AM
. * * Re: Beta: Category 2 Margie   Sun Oct 30 2005 01:44 AM
. * * Re: Beta: Category 2 Annie Oakley   Sun Oct 30 2005 01:29 AM
. * * Re: Beta: Category 2 *Killed -- Sent to Graveyard* Ned   Sun Oct 30 2005 06:53 AM
. * * Beta making Landfall at 7AM EST danielwAdministrator   Sun Oct 30 2005 07:35 AM
. * * Re: Beta making Landfall at 7AM EST bobbutts   Sun Oct 30 2005 08:39 AM
. * * Re: Beta making Landfall at 7AM EST weatherwatcher999   Sun Oct 30 2005 09:39 AM
. * * Administrative Note Ed DunhamAdministrator   Sun Oct 30 2005 09:53 AM
. * * Re: Beta: Category 2 Margie   Sun Oct 30 2005 01:09 AM
. * * Re: Beta Moves West craigm   Fri Oct 28 2005 10:40 PM
. * * Re: Beta Moves West Lee-Delray   Fri Oct 28 2005 09:49 PM
. * * Re: Beta Moves West La Nimo   Fri Oct 28 2005 09:53 PM
. * * Re: Beta Moves West Lee-Delray   Fri Oct 28 2005 10:07 PM
. * * Re: Beta Moves West Marlinfan65   Fri Oct 28 2005 07:48 PM

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