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Archives 2000s >> 2005 News Talkbacks

typhoon_tip
Meteorologist


Reged: Wed
Posts: 573
Re: Beta Moves West
      Sat Oct 29 2005 12:57 PM

Quote:

Can anyone tell me what the probabilites of Beta hitting the Bay Islands of Honduras are? We live on the eastern end of the island of Roatan, the largest of the bay islands. We got some really bad weather from Wilma and are concerned with Beta moving in now. Just wondering if we should consider evacuating as there is a flight out tomorrow morning we can get on.

It seems like most of the tracking systems still show it going into the mainland of Honduras and staying to the south of us. But the winds have already started to pick up here and have been increasing. Any help or insight would be greatly appreciated.

Thanks,
Justin




...You should "tentatively" be ok... There is some additional risk until Beta actually succeeds in making the more westward motion that is heavily anticipated by most forecast models and agencies alike..

...You should take note of your local methodogies for quick departure just in case, just to have those available, but right now it looks like you are on the lower end of the probability for being impact directly by this system.

...Current, watches are warning for hurricane Beta (NHC):

AT 11 AM EDT...1500Z...THE GOVERNMENT OF HONDURAS HAS ISSUED A
HURRICANE WARNING FOR THE NORTHEASTERN COAST OF HONDURAS FROM PUNTA
PATUCA TO CABO GRACIAS A DIOS.

A HURRICANE WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR THE ISLAND OF PROVIDENCIA.
A HURRICANE WARNING IS ALSO IN EFFECT FOR THE EASTERN COAST OF
NICARAGUA FROM BLUEFIELDS NORTHWARD TO CABO GRACIAS A DIOS NEAR THE
NICARAGUA/HONDURAS BORDER...AND ADJACENT ISLANDS.

A TROPICAL STORM WARNING AND A HURRICANE WATCH REMAIN IN EFFECT FOR
THE CARIBBEAN COAST OF NICARAGUA SOUTH OF BLUEFIELDS TO THE BORDER
WITH COSTA RICA.

A TROPICAL STORM WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR THE NORTHEASTERN COAST
OF HONDURAS FROM LIMON EASTWARD TO WEST OF PUNTA PATUCA...INCLUDING
LA CEIBA.

...It appears that by this time tomorrow, Beta will be moving WNW if not W... This motion would bring it asshore over the extreme NE Coast of Nicaragua... From there it should move primarily W and begin losing intensity. This decay won't be too fast at first becauas the coastal plain in that area is fairly flat with slow rolling none-affectual hills. However, as it moves west the terrain will become increasingly hostile and taller. Beta is a compact storm so when she does begin to lose intensity, the suspicion is that it will be very quick... However, an extreme rain and flood threat will persist for a number of days, and this may enhance normal rainfall across the Bay Islands N of the Honduras shores - that's a beautiful area by the way!!

...In a nut shell, you probably do not need to evacuate but if you have access to "official" recommendations regarding the matter, I'd suggest you use those! In the meantimes, probably will be an impactor for area well enough S of you - slim margin granted, but S nonetheless...
Good luck!

Edited by typhoon_tip (Sat Oct 29 2005 12:59 PM)

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Entire topic
Subject Posted by Posted on
* Beta Now Category 3, Landfall in Nicaragua Later Today MikeCAdministrator Sat Oct 29 2005 12:57 PM
. * * Re: intensity forecast... Chemstud2004   Sun Oct 30 2005 01:59 AM
. * * Beta 0815Z danielwAdministrator   Sun Oct 30 2005 03:55 AM
. * * Beta-Major Hurricane danielwAdministrator   Sun Oct 30 2005 04:43 AM
. * * San Andreas Island danielwAdministrator   Sun Oct 30 2005 05:51 AM
. * * Re: San Andreas Island Cycloneye11   Sun Oct 30 2005 06:26 AM
. * * Re: Beta Moves West Wait'l next year! Cubs win W S - No hurricanes   Sat Oct 29 2005 11:33 AM
. * * Re: Beta Moves West Margie   Fri Oct 28 2005 09:11 PM
. * * Re: Beta Moves West ralphfl   Fri Oct 28 2005 10:47 PM
. * * Re: Beta Moves West Random Chaos   Fri Oct 28 2005 10:55 PM
. * * Re: Beta Moves West HanKFranK   Fri Oct 28 2005 11:10 PM
. * * Re: Beta Moves West Tak   Sat Oct 29 2005 12:53 AM
. * * Re: Beta Moves West Margie   Sat Oct 29 2005 12:46 AM
. * * Re: Beta Moves West typhoon_tip   Sat Oct 29 2005 01:02 AM
. * * Re: Beta Moves West GuppieGrouper   Sat Oct 29 2005 07:56 AM
. * * Re: Beta Moves West typhoon_tip   Sat Oct 29 2005 12:37 PM
. * * Re: Beta Moves West Hugh   Sat Oct 29 2005 09:15 AM
. * * Hurricane Beta Random Chaos   Sat Oct 29 2005 08:58 AM
. * * Re: Beta Moves West GuppieGrouper   Fri Oct 28 2005 07:54 PM
. * * Re: Beta Moves West Beaumont, TX   Sat Oct 29 2005 09:53 AM
. * * Re: Beta Moves West JohnS   Sat Oct 29 2005 10:40 AM
. * * Re: Beta Moves West Margie   Sat Oct 29 2005 11:56 AM
. * * Re: Beta Moves West GuppieGrouper   Sat Oct 29 2005 11:35 AM
. * * Re: Beta Moves West Hugh   Sat Oct 29 2005 10:35 AM
. * * Re: Beta Moves West Thunderbird12   Sat Oct 29 2005 11:43 AM
. * * Re: Beta Moves West HanKFranK   Sat Oct 29 2005 12:05 PM
. * * Re: Beta Moves West roatanisland   Sat Oct 29 2005 12:16 PM
. * * Re: Beta Moves West typhoon_tip   Sat Oct 29 2005 12:57 PM
. * * Re: Beta Moves West HanKFranK   Sat Oct 29 2005 02:58 PM
. * * Re: Beta Moves West Storm Hunter   Sat Oct 29 2005 04:33 PM
. * * Re: Beta Moves West Margie   Sat Oct 29 2005 06:14 PM
. * * Re: Beta Moves West damejune2   Sat Oct 29 2005 04:40 PM
. * * Re: Beta Moves West GuppieGrouper   Sat Oct 29 2005 05:36 PM
. * * Thanks ftlaudbob   Sat Oct 29 2005 10:40 AM
. * * Re: Thanks SEFL   Sat Oct 29 2005 05:16 PM
. * * Re: Thanks jeangfl   Sun Oct 30 2005 07:55 AM
. * * Re: Thanks weatherwatcher999   Sun Oct 30 2005 08:34 AM
. * * Re: Thanks GuppieGrouper   Sun Oct 30 2005 08:44 AM
. * * Re: Thanks Ed DunhamAdministrator   Sun Oct 30 2005 08:55 AM
. * * Re: Thanks Wxwatcher2   Sun Oct 30 2005 09:01 AM
. * * Re: Thanks Tropics Guy   Sat Oct 29 2005 07:53 PM
. * * Re: Thanks CaneTrackerInSoFl   Sat Oct 29 2005 10:20 PM
. * * Re: Thanks Random Chaos   Sat Oct 29 2005 10:39 PM
. * * Re: Thanks Hurricane Fredrick 1979   Sat Oct 29 2005 11:15 PM
. * * Re: Thanks Margie   Sat Oct 29 2005 11:25 PM
. * * Beta: Category 2 Random Chaos   Sat Oct 29 2005 11:25 PM
. * * Re: Beta: Category 2 Margie   Sat Oct 29 2005 11:36 PM
. * * Final Intensity analysis Chemstud2004   Sun Oct 30 2005 01:47 AM
. * * Re: Final Intensity analysis Margie   Sun Oct 30 2005 01:54 AM
. * * Re: Beta: Category 2 HanKFranK   Sun Oct 30 2005 12:57 AM
. * * Re: Beta: Category 2 Margie   Sun Oct 30 2005 01:44 AM
. * * Re: Beta: Category 2 Annie Oakley   Sun Oct 30 2005 01:29 AM
. * * Re: Beta: Category 2 *Killed -- Sent to Graveyard* Ned   Sun Oct 30 2005 06:53 AM
. * * Beta making Landfall at 7AM EST danielwAdministrator   Sun Oct 30 2005 07:35 AM
. * * Re: Beta making Landfall at 7AM EST bobbutts   Sun Oct 30 2005 08:39 AM
. * * Re: Beta making Landfall at 7AM EST weatherwatcher999   Sun Oct 30 2005 09:39 AM
. * * Administrative Note Ed DunhamAdministrator   Sun Oct 30 2005 09:53 AM
. * * Re: Beta: Category 2 Margie   Sun Oct 30 2005 01:09 AM
. * * Re: Beta Moves West craigm   Fri Oct 28 2005 10:40 PM
. * * Re: Beta Moves West Lee-Delray   Fri Oct 28 2005 09:49 PM
. * * Re: Beta Moves West La Nimo   Fri Oct 28 2005 09:53 PM
. * * Re: Beta Moves West Lee-Delray   Fri Oct 28 2005 10:07 PM
. * * Re: Beta Moves West Marlinfan65   Fri Oct 28 2005 07:48 PM

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