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#Kirk did not live long and prosper, for now. However #98L is likely undergoing TC Genesis and may succeed. Carolinas may want to watch.
Days since last H. Landfall - US: Any 11 (Florence) , Major: 370 (Maria) Florida - Any: 380 (Irma) Major: 380 (Irma)
31.6N 44.4W
Wind: 35MPH
Pres: 1007mb
Moving:
E at 12 mph
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Archives 2000s >> 2005 News Talkbacks

HanKFranK
User


Reged: Mon
Posts: 1841
Loc: Graniteville, SC
Re: Beta Moves West
      Sat Oct 29 2005 02:58 PM

couple of comments:
1) beta's progress west, extrapolated, gives a landfall a little south of puerto cabezas around 04z or midnight eastern time. recon should shortly fix the intensity so we can get an idea of how fast it's deepening, and get a good idea of how much more it can do before making landfall. like the forecast says, cat 2 is the safest bet, though a small-core cat 3 wouldn't be surprising in the least. it has a definite hurricane signature on satellite, but by its compact size and eye being consistenly shrouded by convective blow-off the true intensity is hard to easily estimate.
2) what tip said about the beta/91L interaction. beta's circulation envelope is pressing against the slow, elongated gyre extending southeast of jamaica, but hasn't really entrained it. as beta will be ashore and weakening tomorrow, and this feature continuing to move through a moderately favorable development environment (ridging aloft, some surface convergence), it can potentially begin to assert itself.
3) potential recon for the surface low/spotty convection feature at 13/52 for halloween day. it is better defined than yesterday in spite of continued s/se shear from the upper low ahead of it. the upper low appears to be elongating and filling, which should result in an improved outflow pattern nearby.
in a nutshell, the idea of the caribbean crowding up isn't laid to rest by the finicky nature of 91L, as the original disturbance lingers and a new one approaches from the east.
HF 1858z29october

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Entire topic
Subject Posted by Posted on
* Beta Now Category 3, Landfall in Nicaragua Later Today MikeCAdministrator Sat Oct 29 2005 02:58 PM
. * * Re: intensity forecast... Chemstud2004   Sun Oct 30 2005 01:59 AM
. * * Beta 0815Z danielwAdministrator   Sun Oct 30 2005 03:55 AM
. * * Beta-Major Hurricane danielwAdministrator   Sun Oct 30 2005 04:43 AM
. * * San Andreas Island danielwAdministrator   Sun Oct 30 2005 05:51 AM
. * * Re: San Andreas Island Cycloneye11   Sun Oct 30 2005 06:26 AM
. * * Re: Beta Moves West Wait'l next year! Cubs win W S - No hurricanes   Sat Oct 29 2005 11:33 AM
. * * Re: Beta Moves West Margie   Fri Oct 28 2005 09:11 PM
. * * Re: Beta Moves West ralphfl   Fri Oct 28 2005 10:47 PM
. * * Re: Beta Moves West Random Chaos   Fri Oct 28 2005 10:55 PM
. * * Re: Beta Moves West HanKFranK   Fri Oct 28 2005 11:10 PM
. * * Re: Beta Moves West Tak   Sat Oct 29 2005 12:53 AM
. * * Re: Beta Moves West Margie   Sat Oct 29 2005 12:46 AM
. * * Re: Beta Moves West typhoon_tip   Sat Oct 29 2005 01:02 AM
. * * Re: Beta Moves West GuppieGrouper   Sat Oct 29 2005 07:56 AM
. * * Re: Beta Moves West typhoon_tip   Sat Oct 29 2005 12:37 PM
. * * Re: Beta Moves West Hugh   Sat Oct 29 2005 09:15 AM
. * * Hurricane Beta Random Chaos   Sat Oct 29 2005 08:58 AM
. * * Re: Beta Moves West GuppieGrouper   Fri Oct 28 2005 07:54 PM
. * * Re: Beta Moves West Beaumont, TX   Sat Oct 29 2005 09:53 AM
. * * Re: Beta Moves West JohnS   Sat Oct 29 2005 10:40 AM
. * * Re: Beta Moves West Margie   Sat Oct 29 2005 11:56 AM
. * * Re: Beta Moves West GuppieGrouper   Sat Oct 29 2005 11:35 AM
. * * Re: Beta Moves West Hugh   Sat Oct 29 2005 10:35 AM
. * * Re: Beta Moves West Thunderbird12   Sat Oct 29 2005 11:43 AM
. * * Re: Beta Moves West HanKFranK   Sat Oct 29 2005 12:05 PM
. * * Re: Beta Moves West roatanisland   Sat Oct 29 2005 12:16 PM
. * * Re: Beta Moves West typhoon_tip   Sat Oct 29 2005 12:57 PM
. * * Re: Beta Moves West HanKFranK   Sat Oct 29 2005 02:58 PM
. * * Re: Beta Moves West Storm Hunter   Sat Oct 29 2005 04:33 PM
. * * Re: Beta Moves West Margie   Sat Oct 29 2005 06:14 PM
. * * Re: Beta Moves West damejune2   Sat Oct 29 2005 04:40 PM
. * * Re: Beta Moves West GuppieGrouper   Sat Oct 29 2005 05:36 PM
. * * Thanks ftlaudbob   Sat Oct 29 2005 10:40 AM
. * * Re: Thanks SEFL   Sat Oct 29 2005 05:16 PM
. * * Re: Thanks jeangfl   Sun Oct 30 2005 07:55 AM
. * * Re: Thanks weatherwatcher999   Sun Oct 30 2005 08:34 AM
. * * Re: Thanks GuppieGrouper   Sun Oct 30 2005 08:44 AM
. * * Re: Thanks Ed DunhamAdministrator   Sun Oct 30 2005 08:55 AM
. * * Re: Thanks Wxwatcher2   Sun Oct 30 2005 09:01 AM
. * * Re: Thanks Tropics Guy   Sat Oct 29 2005 07:53 PM
. * * Re: Thanks CaneTrackerInSoFl   Sat Oct 29 2005 10:20 PM
. * * Re: Thanks Random Chaos   Sat Oct 29 2005 10:39 PM
. * * Re: Thanks Hurricane Fredrick 1979   Sat Oct 29 2005 11:15 PM
. * * Re: Thanks Margie   Sat Oct 29 2005 11:25 PM
. * * Beta: Category 2 Random Chaos   Sat Oct 29 2005 11:25 PM
. * * Re: Beta: Category 2 Margie   Sat Oct 29 2005 11:36 PM
. * * Final Intensity analysis Chemstud2004   Sun Oct 30 2005 01:47 AM
. * * Re: Final Intensity analysis Margie   Sun Oct 30 2005 01:54 AM
. * * Re: Beta: Category 2 HanKFranK   Sun Oct 30 2005 12:57 AM
. * * Re: Beta: Category 2 Margie   Sun Oct 30 2005 01:44 AM
. * * Re: Beta: Category 2 Annie Oakley   Sun Oct 30 2005 01:29 AM
. * * Re: Beta: Category 2 *Killed -- Sent to Graveyard* Ned   Sun Oct 30 2005 06:53 AM
. * * Beta making Landfall at 7AM EST danielwAdministrator   Sun Oct 30 2005 07:35 AM
. * * Re: Beta making Landfall at 7AM EST bobbutts   Sun Oct 30 2005 08:39 AM
. * * Re: Beta making Landfall at 7AM EST weatherwatcher999   Sun Oct 30 2005 09:39 AM
. * * Administrative Note Ed DunhamAdministrator   Sun Oct 30 2005 09:53 AM
. * * Re: Beta: Category 2 Margie   Sun Oct 30 2005 01:09 AM
. * * Re: Beta Moves West craigm   Fri Oct 28 2005 10:40 PM
. * * Re: Beta Moves West Lee-Delray   Fri Oct 28 2005 09:49 PM
. * * Re: Beta Moves West La Nimo   Fri Oct 28 2005 09:53 PM
. * * Re: Beta Moves West Lee-Delray   Fri Oct 28 2005 10:07 PM
. * * Re: Beta Moves West Marlinfan65   Fri Oct 28 2005 07:48 PM

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