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News Talkback >> 2005 News Talkbacks

Chemstud2004
Registered User


Reged: Sun
Posts: 2
Loc: Durham, NC
Final Intensity analysis
      Sun Oct 30 2005 01:47 AM

I've been a visitor on this site for 3 years now and this is by far the best site for discussion and learning about these marvels of nature.

That being said I thought I'd finally put in my 2 cents about Beta. (My first post so please don't be too harsh )

We will likely never know its intensity as it pushes onshore...we should have an idea of its minimum intensity but clearly do not have the technology even at that time to accurately predict the actual intensity without reconnaisance data. Even so I'd like your thoughts on the following without making this sound like a Wishcast:

What we know....

1) pressure near 979 mb at 4pm Saturday from recon reading and flight level winds not quite reading the estimated 90MPH advisory value.

2) Small eye feature developing according to recon at that time improving in structure over previous 12-24 hours.

What we can guess at...

1) A pinhole-type eye structure has finally formed and consolidated itself on IR and Dvorak imagery over the past 6 hours surrounded by -80 to -85C cloud tops. The few storms that form such a feature average between a 4-8 mb/hr drop in pressure until steady-state dynamics take over (Gilbert, Wilma). Beta probably has 6 more hours of significant/explosive deepening in store, at least until frictional effects take over, but with a very small radius of maximum wind, the core should not weaken until essentially onshore or unless it stalls.

2) Unlike the abovementioned monster storms that bottom out....Beta will unfortunately make landfall near or at its most intense wind/pressure.....I would make a comaprison to Iris, which also had a 5-6 mile eye prior to landfall in SW Belize with rapid intensification to Cat 4 status and a tiny inner core structure.

3) Winds may not catch up to pressure intially and up until now because of the rapid organization/deepening but I'm afraid it will by landfall...

4) The winds could be stronger than expected near the eye for its pressure due to the tighter than average pressure gradient for its pressure (again due to the tiny wind core)....this means that Cat 4 winds could be supported by pressures as "high" as 940-950 (Charlie and Iris were about 945mb at 145mph). Also, Wilma deepened by more than 80 mb in just 12 hours with a similar eye structure, albeit better outflow channels so who knows how strong Beta is or may get.

Best guess:

Without an anemometer and a barometer at the Nicaraguan coastline, if the strengthening trend continues, a rough estimate of intensity may be:

Current pressure/wind: 940-955mb (my guess is near 950 mb) with max wind to 110 knots (winds still catching up)

Landfall pressure/wind: 915-945mb (my guess is near 935 mb) with max wind to 130 knots (should be able to catch up with pressure drop by then)

Love to hear your thoughts....I'm just an analytical chemist using the lifehistory of storms over the past 23 years to generate an intensity forecast....it is truly a rare event in this day and age to NOT know such a realtime scenario with a landfalling major (assumed) hurricane in the Atlantic basin since no new recon missions will likely be scheduled for this storm ( no need for the 2pm recon on sunday since landfall will have occurred by then).

In any event my prayers will go out to the families affected by this tragedy. While land area affected won't obviously be as large as Mitch, the localized devastation could be easily as bad.

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Entire topic
Subject Posted by Posted on
* Beta Now Category 3, Landfall in Nicaragua Later Today MikeCAdministrator Sun Oct 30 2005 01:47 AM
. * * Re: intensity forecast... Chemstud2004   Sun Oct 30 2005 01:59 AM
. * * Beta 0815Z danielwAdministrator   Sun Oct 30 2005 03:55 AM
. * * Beta-Major Hurricane danielwAdministrator   Sun Oct 30 2005 04:43 AM
. * * San Andreas Island danielwAdministrator   Sun Oct 30 2005 05:51 AM
. * * Re: San Andreas Island Cycloneye11   Sun Oct 30 2005 06:26 AM
. * * Re: Beta Moves West Wait'l next year! Cubs win W S - No hurricanes   Sat Oct 29 2005 11:33 AM
. * * Re: Beta Moves West Margie   Fri Oct 28 2005 09:11 PM
. * * Re: Beta Moves West ralphfl   Fri Oct 28 2005 10:47 PM
. * * Re: Beta Moves West Random Chaos   Fri Oct 28 2005 10:55 PM
. * * Re: Beta Moves West HanKFranK   Fri Oct 28 2005 11:10 PM
. * * Re: Beta Moves West Tak   Sat Oct 29 2005 12:53 AM
. * * Re: Beta Moves West Margie   Sat Oct 29 2005 12:46 AM
. * * Re: Beta Moves West typhoon_tip   Sat Oct 29 2005 01:02 AM
. * * Re: Beta Moves West GuppieGrouper   Sat Oct 29 2005 07:56 AM
. * * Re: Beta Moves West typhoon_tip   Sat Oct 29 2005 12:37 PM
. * * Re: Beta Moves West Hugh   Sat Oct 29 2005 09:15 AM
. * * Hurricane Beta Random Chaos   Sat Oct 29 2005 08:58 AM
. * * Re: Beta Moves West GuppieGrouper   Fri Oct 28 2005 07:54 PM
. * * Re: Beta Moves West Beaumont, TX   Sat Oct 29 2005 09:53 AM
. * * Re: Beta Moves West JohnS   Sat Oct 29 2005 10:40 AM
. * * Re: Beta Moves West Margie   Sat Oct 29 2005 11:56 AM
. * * Re: Beta Moves West GuppieGrouper   Sat Oct 29 2005 11:35 AM
. * * Re: Beta Moves West Hugh   Sat Oct 29 2005 10:35 AM
. * * Re: Beta Moves West Thunderbird12   Sat Oct 29 2005 11:43 AM
. * * Re: Beta Moves West HanKFranK   Sat Oct 29 2005 12:05 PM
. * * Re: Beta Moves West roatanisland   Sat Oct 29 2005 12:16 PM
. * * Re: Beta Moves West typhoon_tip   Sat Oct 29 2005 12:57 PM
. * * Re: Beta Moves West HanKFranK   Sat Oct 29 2005 02:58 PM
. * * Re: Beta Moves West Storm Hunter   Sat Oct 29 2005 04:33 PM
. * * Re: Beta Moves West Margie   Sat Oct 29 2005 06:14 PM
. * * Re: Beta Moves West damejune2   Sat Oct 29 2005 04:40 PM
. * * Re: Beta Moves West GuppieGrouper   Sat Oct 29 2005 05:36 PM
. * * Thanks ftlaudbob   Sat Oct 29 2005 10:40 AM
. * * Re: Thanks SEFL   Sat Oct 29 2005 05:16 PM
. * * Re: Thanks jeangfl   Sun Oct 30 2005 07:55 AM
. * * Re: Thanks weatherwatcher999   Sun Oct 30 2005 08:34 AM
. * * Re: Thanks GuppieGrouper   Sun Oct 30 2005 08:44 AM
. * * Re: Thanks Ed DunhamAdministrator   Sun Oct 30 2005 08:55 AM
. * * Re: Thanks Wxwatcher2   Sun Oct 30 2005 09:01 AM
. * * Re: Thanks Tropics Guy   Sat Oct 29 2005 07:53 PM
. * * Re: Thanks CaneTrackerInSoFl   Sat Oct 29 2005 10:20 PM
. * * Re: Thanks Random Chaos   Sat Oct 29 2005 10:39 PM
. * * Re: Thanks Hurricane Fredrick 1979   Sat Oct 29 2005 11:15 PM
. * * Re: Thanks Margie   Sat Oct 29 2005 11:25 PM
. * * Beta: Category 2 Random Chaos   Sat Oct 29 2005 11:25 PM
. * * Re: Beta: Category 2 Margie   Sat Oct 29 2005 11:36 PM
. * * Final Intensity analysis Chemstud2004   Sun Oct 30 2005 01:47 AM
. * * Re: Final Intensity analysis Margie   Sun Oct 30 2005 01:54 AM
. * * Re: Beta: Category 2 HanKFranK   Sun Oct 30 2005 12:57 AM
. * * Re: Beta: Category 2 Margie   Sun Oct 30 2005 01:44 AM
. * * Re: Beta: Category 2 Annie Oakley   Sun Oct 30 2005 01:29 AM
. * * Re: Beta: Category 2 *Killed -- Sent to Graveyard* Ned   Sun Oct 30 2005 06:53 AM
. * * Beta making Landfall at 7AM EST danielwAdministrator   Sun Oct 30 2005 07:35 AM
. * * Re: Beta making Landfall at 7AM EST bobbutts   Sun Oct 30 2005 08:39 AM
. * * Re: Beta making Landfall at 7AM EST weatherwatcher999   Sun Oct 30 2005 09:39 AM
. * * Administrative Note Ed DunhamAdministrator   Sun Oct 30 2005 09:53 AM
. * * Re: Beta: Category 2 Margie   Sun Oct 30 2005 01:09 AM
. * * Re: Beta Moves West craigm   Fri Oct 28 2005 10:40 PM
. * * Re: Beta Moves West Lee-Delray   Fri Oct 28 2005 09:49 PM
. * * Re: Beta Moves West La Nimo   Fri Oct 28 2005 09:53 PM
. * * Re: Beta Moves West Lee-Delray   Fri Oct 28 2005 10:07 PM
. * * Re: Beta Moves West Marlinfan65   Fri Oct 28 2005 07:48 PM

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