Monday 10PM Update The tropical wave (Invest 92L) that was south of Puerto Rico this morning has moved rapidly west northwest during the day and has been drawn into the northern circulation of an upper level low currently in the central Caribbean Sea south of Haiti. The opportunity for development has decreased significantly as the tropics begin to transform into a wintertime pattern. Activity is finally quieting down.
Monday 11AM Update Tropical Depression Beta has dissipated over extreme southwestern Honduras, while Invest 92L is still an active wave, now well south of Puerto Rico in the western Caribbean Sea. Most model runs have not been updated on 92L in quite some time - but they probably should be. The wave continues to move westward through the Caribbean Sea and convection is again on the increase.
Original Post Hurricane Beta made landfall shortly after 30/12Z along the east central coast of Nicaragua as a Category II hurricane with maximum sustained winds of 105mph. Beta was a small but powerful hurricane with a small eye - it did reach Category III during the night, but weakened just prior to landfall. Current movement is to the southwest at about 10mph and rapid weakening is expected over the high terrain of Nicaragua. A remnant low could emerge into the Pacific off the west central Nicaraguan coast as Beta continues on a southwest to westsouthwest course over the next couple of days. Heavy rainfall and flash flooding likely over Nicaragua and Honduras. Landfall was near 12.9N 83.6W.
Active stationary wave over Jamaica with a weak circulation over western Jamaica should bring more heavy rainfall to that country. The wave exists in an area of moderate wind shear so future development seems unlikely.
Active tropical wave near 15.5N 56W at 30/12Z (Invest 92L) moving to the west and west northwest toward the northern Caribbean Islands. The wave will be moving into an area of lighter shear and has potential for additional development over the next 2 or 3 days. The next name on the list is 'Gamma'.
The zonal jet has extended southward to 23N thanks to the anticipated development of a strong Mississippi Valley upper trough in a couple of days. This set-up should offer some near term protection to the U.S. - keeping any future systems offshore and out to sea. Note that the westerlies over the central Gulf of Mexico are stronger than the westerlies over central Hudson Bay.
23 Named Storms (and still counting) 13 Hurricanes 7 Major Hurricanes 3 Cat V's
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