near florida... that's a baroclinic profile. sheared environment along an old frontal boundary, set to merge with an oncoming front... naw, i wouldn't expect any tropical development out of it. may take over as the primary low as the shortwave picks it up, become a noreaster type system well offshore. some of the modeling is showing a piece of the front it leaves tailing in and east of the bahamas, with an inverted trough moving along it to it from the east and inducing another surface low at the end of the week out to sea. probably will be too much shear around for it to do anything, in spite of warm ocean waters below. the SOI downward pulse we've had hasn't translated to backing in the tropics yet. this late in the year it usually results in a monsoon trough-type feature in the sw caribbean across into the pacific, rather than the further westward feature that tends to form in the summer (esp in el nino years). not impossible that the western caribbean will remain a center of focus. active monsoon trough off africa as well, but waves are entering a rough zone in the central atlantic. itcz is depressed over the atlantic but far enough north that anything nearing the caribbean should be over water. the region from east of the islands to the western caribbean will remain the focal area for anything else that tries to start up in the current pattern. until some blocking events or nao negative setting up, don't expect much in the way of subtropical hybrids. based on the circulation profile of the basin though, doesn't look like we're finished yet. october was exceptionally active (six storms, four hurricanes, two major)... with a similar pattern to late october holding i don't see why november won't try to cough up another storm or two. then again it could be that my ability to sense inactivity is fried by the tremendous activity we've had this season and doesn't work anymore. sometimes an active october is followed by a quiet november (1995), or an active one (2001). HF 2242z01november
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