As of this morning, conditions have become very much more favorable for development in the SW Carib...which is not to say that anything will develop. This is not reflected in the wording of the 1130 TWO, which does at least acknowledge the possibility.
Upper level anti-cyclonic motion is combined with three good possible outflow channels, low shear, and increasing vorticity, above the area of disturbed weather from the tropical wave.
Regardless, the continuing heavy rains are causing a huge problem for the coasts of Nicaragua and Honduras, still dealing with the effects of flooding from Beta.
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Well more knowledgeable folks than myself disagree...from the aft TWD:
LARGE-SCALE CONDITIONS DON'T APPEAR TO BE VERY FAVORABLE FOR ANY SIGNIFICANT DEVELOPMENT.
Is this because of all the dry air moving in strongly from the eastern Carib (can be seen on the floater)?
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Mid-aft...please tell me I am seeing things. Looks like a LLC at about 12N between 80-82W, no assoc convection.
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