in about a week a couple of the models are picking up on some potential activity in the caribbean. the strongly zonal pattern, with rather universal westerlies in the atlantic right now should kink up some, as a strong sharp trough passing off the east coast at the end of the week should modify the currently strong zonal flow. cmc is showing a frontal-tail low near the ne caribbean around the weekend, while gfs sees an upper ridge with a slowed low level easterly jet in the western caribbean in a week to 10 days. at this point just watching for persistence in runs, as they're far out. pattern wouldn't support more than caribbean impact from either feature, as it would take one hell of an amplified pattern or a very anomalous and strong northward-displaced subtropical ridge to get a tropical cyclone to the united states this time of year. by the way, it's been mentioned already... but the tornado deaths this year were at a very low 10 until sunday morning's F3 outside of evansville, IN. 23 people, one of which was 8 months pregnant, died in the tornado. there isn't much of a silver lining in 2005. just waiting for the inevitable blizzard. HF 0641z08november
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