thats a meso convective system core. it probably has a little turning at the surface, but it doesn't have the organized convection of a tropical cyclone. very low latitude and marginal environmental conditions, so i doubt it will do much. stuff generally doesn't form that close to central america on the pacific side. the features of interest on the atlantic side, if they do anything, will develop very slowly... almost like geologic time. the models are divergent again about what's what and where. gfs has pretty much lost interest in an organized system in its recent runs, and now just shows a general region of disturbed weather in the caribbean. haven't seen the 12z on anything else, but nogaps was favoring a system north of panama, and the canadian has a spurious looking system in the eastern caribbean that develops quickly and charges into heavy shear. euro is still showing generalized low pressure but no tropical cyclone.. while hpc's prog shows a tropical low in the western caribbean (this is nearly 24hrs old, though). at the surface the weather near panama looks nowhere near organization, though the environmental conditions are such that something could fester there, and slowly develop once the ridging that models have been predicting in the western caribbean for days starts to pump up early next week. to the east, near 10/56 there's actually a fairly impressive blow up along a wave, under light westerly shear. the wind field is curled around but not closed off. very hostile conditions to the north... but if it hangs out at the latitude it's at and moves slowly, that will be something worth watching. the globals have been suggesting two foci (not with great consistency) at either end of the caribbean for low pressure going into next week... that eastern deal was the one i doubted and it actually looks further along than panama right now. bottom line: there's been enough model rumbling to suggest something may happen this week, joe b is clucking about it, and the synoptic pattern will at least allow disturbed weather to fester in the caribbean. whether we get a tropical cyclone (or in an insane situation two) out of all this is still 2-5 days out. i would rate the chances at this point as moderate. HF 1658z12november
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