naw man, floater 2 has been sitting there since that invest 92L was over there, back when beta was still active. that thing never developed, but two weeks later something has popped up to replace it. i agree that it looks like it may well be classified soon. it looks to have a closed low at this point though cloud motions at night can be tricky, even on ir2. there's definitely a solid mass of convection present with the disturbance, so it looks like the developmental feedback mechanism is in place. that keeps up and it'll probably make it during the day sunday. close to the islands, so they might toss together a recon flight. more likely monday, though. that's 94L. 93L is still just a broad mess near panama. a lot of convection has developed inland over columbia, and should wander out to sea into the broad low pressure in the region, while the upper air pattern has been consistently forecast to improve for this region. 94 looks to be leading the way right now, but i'd say that 93 has time on its side. both have had modest support from the models, but it's still a little surprising that one is already ramping up. HF 0520z13november
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