TD 27 Active in the SE Caribbean--here we go

The area of disturbed weather in the southeastern Caribbean sea has developed into a tropical cyclone, based on radar and surface reports from the Windward Islands.

Caribbean Weather Reports

The system is forecast to move generally westward, and the NHC is suggesting that it expects a hurricane later in the week. For the near term it is under considerable shear, though an anticyclone is forecast to develop aloft in the path of the system by midweek. There is always the chance that it will crash ahead into shear and rid us of tropical worries; that appears an unlikely scenario at this point. Next name on the list is Gamma.

Models are not terribly convergent on it's future, though the ones that have been correctly forecasting this system's development show a significant hurricane reaching the western Caribbean later in the week. Some of the dynamic models favor a track further south, near the coast of South America.

Storm 27 Model Plots

In the long range, the synoptic pattern would tend to favor one of three things--a speeding track into Central America, a sharp recurvature across Cuba, or a potential stall/meander scenario later in the week.
There are a couple of other areas of interest--they are real longshots. Modeling is showing the potential for low pressure further east of 27, though none show more than broad, weak lows. There is still low pressure near Panama in some model runs as well. This area is persisting even though convection became scarce there today. There is also a deep layer low forecast to dive southwest over the central Atlantic during the coming days. GFS shows way too much shear over it for any development, but it may have the profile distorted. It will penetrate into the tropics, if nothing else.
There don't appear to be any U.S. threats, but any system in the Caribbean is a worry for plenty of people. This is not a fish-storm scenario as some tend to call it, unless it acts really weird (check Marco in 1996 for a proxy Caribbean fish-storm).

http://www.weather.unisys.com/hurricane/atlantic/1996/MARCO/track.gif

The forecast track may end up resembling Joan of 1988, for those of you into climo-history.

http://www.weather.unisys.com/hurricane/atlantic/1988/JOAN/track.gif

Or for an alternate scenario, try:

http://www.weather.unisys.com/hurricane/atlantic/1932/10/track.gif

It's late season, and only the real hurricane buffs are still around--so feel free to post away.
-HF

TD #27 (from Skeetobite)

Click for full size:

Animated Model Graphic Skeetobite
South Florida Water Management District Animated model plot of TD#27 - Static Image
cimss TD#27 Page

Edited by MikeC (Mon Nov 14 2005 07:19 AM)

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