No wishcasting is to say its going to Tampa when all Models and the NHC say something different.
Only the GFDL has it making it to Florida as a storm and im not sold on this storm.....When the Met on TV says that a squall Line coming down with a front Monday concerns him more i tend to go along with him since he has been good all season.
with the shear and the water temps and the broad center i don't see this doing much PER the other Models besides the gfdl and NOT wishcasting as that term is saved for the guys who yell Tampa when they have nothing to support it.
In this case we have stuff to support it.
You're trolling Ralph, but I'll bite.
I think it's going to hit Tampa as a 75mph Hurricane monday Evening. Why do I think that you ask?
1) I think the front in question will help steer the storm up and over florida.
2) I think the shear will not keep the storm from continuing a slow development. (notice several storms have continued to inensify in spite of significant shear this season)
3) as the storm starts accelerating towards the NE, The relative shear will lessen, giving the storm an opportunity to maintain or increase it's strength (see Wilma for a great example of that).
4) the models don't have enough information to make a good judgement yet, So I'll stick with climatology.
Climatology is not the worst thing to use when forecasting, as you can pick out general trends that models will not pick up early in a storms carrer. Modelling becomes useful once the storm is established, but models aren't perfect.
-------------------- M. S. Earth and Atmospheric Sciences, Georgia Tech - May 2018.
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