What I find a little interesting is that the 18Z GFS now shows cyclogenesis occuring in the NE GOM off the panhandle and then deepening as a cold core system inland up the Appalachians. This is quite a signicant departure from earlier model runs that had the tropical system absorbed into a coastal Atlantic low which would develop off the FL east coast and become a nor easter. If this pans out, this tells me that the shortwave trough diving down to the south on Monday will be more toward the central GOM rather than eastern GOM - which, may allow whatever evolves from Gamma to move more northward in the eastern GOM rather than eastward across the southern tip. Of course, with the shear predicted and cooler GOM temps, the system would likely transition (if it maintained itself) into a hybrid subtropical storm with all of the bad weather lopsided on its eastern side. Just one model run but the orientation of the trough and its speed will obviously influence Gamma's path. Latest dynamic model runs are focusing on a Wilma path though so this GFS run may be out to lunch.
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