well, i'm one to talk since i didn't think this thing would ever get that far west... but by virtue of it deteriorating and reforming north of honduras the opportunity for it to nip at the u.s. is there. start of the week i was totally against that possibility, but there it is with a forecast track up to florida in a couple of days. ok, here's the best i can do for now. the system is under some shear as the upper high sheltering it has been displaced to the east. the shear ought to keep it in check unless it starts moving with the shear... i.e., the deep layer flow starts pushing it. like nhc guys are saying, that should happen when the ridging blocking it in the lower troposphere starts to wear down. thing is, we aren't in the late summer or anything.. this is late autumn. the shortwave headed to get it will be trucking, and unless the storm is far enough north/deep enough to catch it and take off.. it'll just get kicked ene and slowly decay under the base of the deep trough forecast in the east next week. the official forecast follows that it will catch that shortwave like the gfdl says and come up like a rocket. under that situation the intensity isn't unreasonable.. as these fast movers tend to have a translational component ramping the winds on one semicircle, and slacking them on the other. i.e., this will only be an event if you are east of the center path. some of the other globals have the nontropical low forecast to come up ahead of or entrain gamma tracking inland now, further west. under such a scenario the storm could come further west and do the dreaded thing that ralph believes will never ever happen... get the tampa bay area. i'm not entirely convinced it will even get the chance to come up... if it's clocking 60-65mph winds tomorrow that'll be more of a likelihood.. but right now it looks like a moderate tropical storm at worst, that may rapidly wash out if it isn't phasing with the storm and the post-trough axis shear gets it. for now i'll tentatively put the system coming up, but further east and weaker than the official. perhaps a glance of southeast florida. i'm thinking the timetable will be a little staggered and that the intensity will be on the low side. this is sort of a compromise between the aggressive gfdl runs earlier today and the not-so-enthused runs of other globals who sort of feed it into the coastal storm set to harrass the east next week. last time we had a u.s. hit in november was mitch in 1998. gordon '94 before that... kate and keith back in the 80s. if it does hit florida, it'll be the latest hit since keith on november 23, 1988. HF 0055z19november
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