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Archives >> 2005 News Talkbacks

HanKFranK
User


Reged: Mon
Posts: 1841
Loc: Graniteville, SC
Re: Why I think it's heading to Tampa
      Fri Nov 18 2005 07:55 PM

well, i'm one to talk since i didn't think this thing would ever get that far west... but by virtue of it deteriorating and reforming north of honduras the opportunity for it to nip at the u.s. is there. start of the week i was totally against that possibility, but there it is with a forecast track up to florida in a couple of days.
ok, here's the best i can do for now. the system is under some shear as the upper high sheltering it has been displaced to the east. the shear ought to keep it in check unless it starts moving with the shear... i.e., the deep layer flow starts pushing it. like nhc guys are saying, that should happen when the ridging blocking it in the lower troposphere starts to wear down. thing is, we aren't in the late summer or anything.. this is late autumn. the shortwave headed to get it will be trucking, and unless the storm is far enough north/deep enough to catch it and take off.. it'll just get kicked ene and slowly decay under the base of the deep trough forecast in the east next week. the official forecast follows that it will catch that shortwave like the gfdl says and come up like a rocket. under that situation the intensity isn't unreasonable.. as these fast movers tend to have a translational component ramping the winds on one semicircle, and slacking them on the other. i.e., this will only be an event if you are east of the center path.
some of the other globals have the nontropical low forecast to come up ahead of or entrain gamma tracking inland now, further west. under such a scenario the storm could come further west and do the dreaded thing that ralph believes will never ever happen... get the tampa bay area. i'm not entirely convinced it will even get the chance to come up... if it's clocking 60-65mph winds tomorrow that'll be more of a likelihood.. but right now it looks like a moderate tropical storm at worst, that may rapidly wash out if it isn't phasing with the storm and the post-trough axis shear gets it.
for now i'll tentatively put the system coming up, but further east and weaker than the official. perhaps a glance of southeast florida. i'm thinking the timetable will be a little staggered and that the intensity will be on the low side. this is sort of a compromise between the aggressive gfdl runs earlier today and the not-so-enthused runs of other globals who sort of feed it into the coastal storm set to harrass the east next week.
last time we had a u.s. hit in november was mitch in 1998. gordon '94 before that... kate and keith back in the 80s. if it does hit florida, it'll be the latest hit since keith on november 23, 1988.
HF 0055z19november

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Entire topic
Subject Posted by Posted on
* Tropical Storm Gamma Forms Near Honduras Clark Fri Nov 18 2005 07:55 PM
. * * Re: Tropical Storm Gamma Forms Near Honduras Lee-Delray   Mon Nov 21 2005 08:39 AM
. * * Re: Tropical Storm Gamma Forms Near Honduras Clark   Mon Nov 21 2005 09:43 AM
. * * Re: Tropical Storm Gamma Forms Near Honduras Psyber   Mon Nov 21 2005 11:36 AM
. * * Re: Tropical Storm Gamma Forms Near Honduras Tak   Mon Nov 21 2005 12:20 PM
. * * Re: Tropical Storm Gamma Forms Near Honduras HanKFranK   Mon Nov 21 2005 12:38 PM
. * * Re: Tropical Storm Gamma Forms Near Honduras Psyber   Mon Nov 21 2005 02:31 PM
. * * Re: Tropical Storm Gamma Forms Near Honduras Clark   Mon Nov 21 2005 05:41 PM
. * * Clarifications Ed DunhamAdministrator   Mon Nov 21 2005 09:11 PM
. * * Re: Tropical Storm Gamma Forms Near Honduras Lee-Delray   Mon Nov 21 2005 05:53 PM
. * * Re: Tropical Storm Gamma Forms Near Honduras Clark   Tue Nov 22 2005 01:39 AM
. * * delta time... HanKFranK   Tue Nov 22 2005 10:35 AM
. * * Re: delta time... Margie   Tue Nov 22 2005 12:21 PM
. * * Re: Tropical Storm Gamma Forms Near Honduras typhoon_tip   Mon Nov 21 2005 07:56 PM
. * * Global Warming and weather events.. typhoon_tip   Mon Nov 21 2005 08:35 PM
. * * Re: Global Warming and weather events.. ltpat228   Mon Nov 21 2005 09:38 PM
. * * A little hint.... Doombot!   Tue Nov 22 2005 12:40 AM
. * * Re: Global Warming and weather events.. HanKFranK   Mon Nov 21 2005 09:37 PM
. * * Re: Tropical Storm Gamma Forms Near Honduras Katie   Mon Nov 21 2005 03:28 PM
. * * Re: Tropical Storm Gamma Forms Near Honduras Clark   Mon Nov 21 2005 02:13 PM
. * * Re: Tropical Storm Gamma Forms Near Honduras ftlaudbob   Mon Nov 21 2005 11:13 AM
. * * Re: Tropical Storm Gamma Forms Near Honduras Hurricane Dad   Mon Nov 21 2005 11:18 AM
. * * Re: Tropical Storm Gamma Forms Near Honduras Rabbit   Mon Nov 21 2005 11:36 AM
. * * Re: Tropical Storm Gamma Forms Near Honduras Lee-Delray   Mon Nov 21 2005 12:14 PM
. * * Re: Tropical Storm Gamma Forms Near Honduras Rabbit   Mon Nov 21 2005 10:04 AM
. * * Re: Tropical Storm Gamma Forms Near Honduras Lee-Delray   Mon Nov 21 2005 10:02 AM
. * * Re: Tropical Storm Gamma Forms Near Honduras Lee-Delray   Sun Nov 20 2005 10:17 AM
. * * 95L HanKFranK   Sun Nov 20 2005 11:54 AM
. * * Re: 95L Genesis   Sun Nov 20 2005 02:32 PM
. * * Re: 95L Lee-Delray   Sun Nov 20 2005 03:26 PM
. * * how about some predictions here?! vineyardsaker   Sun Nov 20 2005 07:32 PM
. * * Re: how about some predictions here?! Clark   Sun Nov 20 2005 08:43 PM
. * * GAMMA...Gone danielwAdministrator   Sun Nov 20 2005 10:54 PM
. * * 9 Days and counting danielwAdministrator   Sun Nov 20 2005 07:49 PM
. * * 95L and GOM Low danielwAdministrator   Sun Nov 20 2005 07:32 PM
. * * Re: Tropical Storm Gamma Forms Near Honduras Lee-Delray   Sat Nov 19 2005 09:44 PM
. * * Re: Tropical Storm Gamma Forms Near Honduras Lee-Delray   Sat Nov 19 2005 04:01 PM
. * * Re: Tropical Storm Gamma Forms Near Honduras ralphfl   Sat Nov 19 2005 05:38 PM
. * * Re: Tropical Storm Gamma Forms Near Honduras pincty   Sat Nov 19 2005 07:03 PM
. * * Tropical Storm Classification danielwAdministrator   Sat Nov 19 2005 08:27 PM
. * * Re: Tropical Storm Classification WXMAN RICHIE   Sat Nov 19 2005 08:41 PM
. * * Re: Tropical Storm Classification danielwAdministrator   Sat Nov 19 2005 08:50 PM
. * * More points to ponder danielwAdministrator   Sat Nov 19 2005 09:18 PM
. * * Re: More points to ponder Old Sailor   Sat Nov 19 2005 10:37 PM
. * * Re: Tropical Storm Gamma Forms Near Honduras ftlaudbob   Sat Nov 19 2005 04:07 PM
. * * Re: Tropical Storm Gamma Forms Near Honduras Lee-Delray   Sat Nov 19 2005 01:10 PM
. * * Re: Tropical Storm Gamma Forms Near Honduras Old Sailor   Sat Nov 19 2005 01:37 PM
. * * Re: Tropical Storm Gamma Forms Near Honduras dave foster   Sat Nov 19 2005 01:47 PM
. * * Re: Tropical Storm Gamma Forms Near Honduras Lee-Delray   Sat Nov 19 2005 11:45 AM
. * * Re: Tropical Storm Gamma Forms Near Honduras bobbutts   Sat Nov 19 2005 12:59 PM
. * * Re: Tropical Storm Gamma Forms Near Honduras MikeCAdministrator   Sat Nov 19 2005 11:37 AM
. * * Re: Tropical Storm Gamma Forms Near Honduras srsarner   Sat Nov 19 2005 09:34 AM
. * * Re: Tropical Storm Gamma Forms Near Honduras Ed DunhamAdministrator   Sat Nov 19 2005 10:01 AM
. * * Re: Tropical Storm Gamma Forms Near Honduras Clark   Sat Nov 19 2005 11:06 PM
. * * Re: Tropical Storm Gamma Forms Near Honduras Margie   Sat Nov 19 2005 04:36 PM
. * * Re: Tropical Storm Gamma Forms Near Honduras Lee-Delray   Sat Nov 19 2005 04:46 PM
. * * Bye Bye Gamma Wxwatcher2   Sat Nov 19 2005 05:09 PM
. * * Re: Bye Bye Gamma Clark   Sat Nov 19 2005 11:10 PM
. * * Re: Bye Bye Gamma Lee-Delray   Sat Nov 19 2005 05:14 PM
. * * Re: Tropical Storm Gamma forms near Honduras Katie   Fri Nov 18 2005 03:49 PM
. * * Re: Tropical Storm Gamma forms near Honduras Tropics Guy   Fri Nov 18 2005 04:00 PM
. * * Weather Station WXMAN RICHIE   Fri Nov 18 2005 03:59 PM
. * * Re: Tropical Storm Gamma forms near Honduras ralphfl   Fri Nov 18 2005 03:56 PM
. * * Re: Tropical Storm Gamma forms near Honduras Thunderbird12   Fri Nov 18 2005 04:00 PM
. * * Re: Tropical Storm Gamma forms near Honduras Margie   Fri Nov 18 2005 04:07 PM
. * * Re: Tropical Storm Gamma forms near Honduras Tak   Fri Nov 18 2005 04:21 PM
. * * Re: Tropical Storm Gamma forms near Honduras Rich B   Fri Nov 18 2005 04:33 PM
. * * Re: Tropical Storm Gamma forms near Honduras Thunderbird12   Fri Nov 18 2005 04:46 PM
. * * Re: Tropical Storm Gamma forms near Honduras Margie   Fri Nov 18 2005 04:46 PM
. * * Re: Tropical Storm Gamma forms near Honduras Rich B   Fri Nov 18 2005 05:21 PM
. * * Re: Tropical Storm Gamma forms near Honduras Margie   Fri Nov 18 2005 05:23 PM
. * * Re: Tropical Storm Gamma forms near Honduras Wxwatcher2   Fri Nov 18 2005 05:33 PM
. * * Re: Tropical Storm Gamma forms near Honduras WXMAN RICHIE   Fri Nov 18 2005 04:39 PM
. * * Re: Tropical Storm Gamma forms near Honduras Lee-Delray   Fri Nov 18 2005 04:37 PM
. * * Re: Tropical Storm Gamma forms near Honduras Tak   Fri Nov 18 2005 05:07 PM
. * * Re: Tropical Storm Gamma forms near Honduras Lee-Delray   Fri Nov 18 2005 05:12 PM
. * * Re: Tropical Storm Gamma forms near Honduras ralphfl   Fri Nov 18 2005 05:16 PM
. * * Re: Tropical Storm Gamma forms near Honduras Lysis   Fri Nov 18 2005 05:21 PM
. * * Re: Tropical Storm Gamma forms near Honduras WXMAN RICHIE   Fri Nov 18 2005 06:09 PM
. * * Re: Tropical Storm Gamma forms near Honduras Thunderbird12   Fri Nov 18 2005 06:17 PM
. * * Re: Tropical Storm Gamma forms near Honduras dave foster   Fri Nov 18 2005 06:43 PM
. * * Re: Tropical Storm Gamma forms near Honduras ralphfl   Fri Nov 18 2005 05:58 PM
. * * Re: Tropical Storm Gamma forms near Honduras ralphfl   Fri Nov 18 2005 10:30 PM
. * * Re: Tropical Storm Gamma forms near Honduras pincty   Fri Nov 18 2005 06:49 PM
. * * Re: Tropical Storm Gamma forms near Honduras Dawn   Fri Nov 18 2005 07:04 PM
. * * Re: Tropical Storm Gamma forms near Honduras ChessieStorm   Fri Nov 18 2005 11:07 PM
. * * Re: Tropical Storm Gamma forms near Honduras danielwAdministrator   Fri Nov 18 2005 11:18 PM
. * * Re: Tropical Storm Gamma forms near Honduras saluki   Sat Nov 19 2005 01:18 AM
. * * 4 AM EST Advisory...oops danielwAdministrator   Sat Nov 19 2005 04:15 AM
. * * Re: 4 AM EST Advisory...oops danielwAdministrator   Sat Nov 19 2005 04:27 AM
. * * Re: 4 AM EST Advisory...oops Hugh   Sat Nov 19 2005 09:32 AM
. * * Re: 4 AM EST Advisory...oops ralphfl   Sat Nov 19 2005 08:00 AM
. * * Re: Tropical Storm Gamma forms near Honduras pincty   Fri Nov 18 2005 07:14 PM
. * * Why I think it's heading to Tampa Bloodstar   Fri Nov 18 2005 06:36 PM
. * * Re: Why I think it's heading to Tampa Hootowl   Fri Nov 18 2005 07:03 PM
. * * Re: Why I think it's heading to Tampa Ron Basso   Fri Nov 18 2005 07:24 PM
. * * Re: Why I think it's heading to Tampa HanKFranK   Fri Nov 18 2005 07:55 PM
. * * Re: Why I think it's heading to Tampa *Killed -- Sent to Graveyard* collegemom   Fri Nov 18 2005 07:33 PM
. * * Re: Why I think it's heading to Tampa Lee-Delray   Fri Nov 18 2005 07:48 PM
. * * Re: Why I think it's heading to Tampa weatherwatcher999   Fri Nov 18 2005 08:08 PM
. * * Re: Why I think it's heading to Tampa Major7   Fri Nov 18 2005 09:49 PM
. * * Gamma danielwAdministrator   Fri Nov 18 2005 08:20 PM
. * * Area Forecast Dicussion excerpts danielwAdministrator   Fri Nov 18 2005 08:34 PM
. * * SHIPS forecast danielwAdministrator   Fri Nov 18 2005 09:02 PM
. * * Re: SHIPS forecast Lee-Delray   Fri Nov 18 2005 09:07 PM
. * * Re: SHIPS forecast laxpimpj   Fri Nov 18 2005 09:47 PM
. * * Classes and Recon danielwAdministrator   Fri Nov 18 2005 09:56 PM
. * * Re: Classes and Recon dave foster   Fri Nov 18 2005 10:09 PM
. * * Re: SHIPS forecast Hugh   Fri Nov 18 2005 09:49 PM
. * * Gamma Hugh   Fri Nov 18 2005 09:46 PM
. * * Re: Why I think it's heading to Tampa Hugh   Fri Nov 18 2005 07:03 PM
. * * Re: Tropical Storm Gamma forms near Honduras Lee-Delray   Fri Nov 18 2005 06:07 PM
. * * Re: Tropical Storm Gamma forms near Honduras Tak   Fri Nov 18 2005 05:55 PM
. * * Re: Tropical Storm Gamma rmbjoe1954   Fri Nov 18 2005 04:43 PM
. * * Re: Tropical Storm Gamma forms near Honduras Rich B   Fri Nov 18 2005 04:39 PM
. * * Re: Tropical Storm Gamma forms near Honduras Lee-Delray   Fri Nov 18 2005 04:44 PM
. * * Re: Tropical Storm Gamma forms near Honduras Lee-Delray   Fri Nov 18 2005 04:16 PM
. * * Re: Tropical Storm Gamma forms near Honduras HURRICANELONNY   Fri Nov 18 2005 03:55 PM
. * * Re: Tropical Storm Gamma forms near Honduras *DELETED* Lee-Delray   Fri Nov 18 2005 03:57 PM
. * * Re: Tropical Storm Gamma forms near Honduras ralphfl   Fri Nov 18 2005 03:59 PM
. * * Re: Tropical Storm Gamma forms near Honduras Lee-Delray   Fri Nov 18 2005 04:02 PM
. * * Re: Tropical Storm Gamma forms near Honduras ralphfl   Fri Nov 18 2005 04:05 PM
. * * Re: Tropical Storm Gamma forms near Honduras HURRICANELONNY   Fri Nov 18 2005 04:05 PM

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