I'm surprised this wasn't a td or ts earlier in the day-the satellite images revealed very high cloud tops and it actually looked like an inland ts (ex. tammy). The latest sat. images (look at ir4) are really showing it trying to spin up, with higher tops, etc.
Looks like GFDL has went without the group in the latest model run... it's gotta make landfall somewhere... whether it belize, the yucatan, cuba, florida, or the bahamas. I don't think it will strengthen to a hurricane-the SST's aren't as warm in the GOM, plus shear, and the cold front....
btw, does anyone think the track looks like a wilma?
Tough forecast on this one. My take is a short landfall in the yucatan, near miss on west cuba, and extreme southern florida, then it zooms off to no man's land.
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