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Wet & Windy Gulf of Mexico as Old #98L Remains a Player. Also Watching Invest 99L in Western Caribbean Sea.
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Archives >> 2005 News Talkbacks

danielwAdministrator
Moderator


Reged: Wed
Posts: 3460
Loc: Hattiesburg,MS (31.3N 89.3W)
Area Forecast Dicussion excerpts
      Fri Nov 18 2005 08:34 PM

From:
NWS Key West AFD-430pm EST Friday Nov 18th
.FORECAST...
THE NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER FORECAST FOR TROPICAL STORM GAMMA IS FOR SOME INTENSIFICATION INTO A STRONGER TROPICAL STORM...WHILE BEING EVENTUALLY STEERED TOWARD WEST CUBA AND THE FLORIDA STRAITS BY THE LARGE SCALE UPPER TROUGH FORECAST BY GLOBAL MODELS TO SET UP OVER THE EASTERN UNITED STATES. AS A RESULT OF THIS FORECAST...THE KEYS PUBLIC AND COASTAL WATERS FORECASTS WERE MODIFIED TO INCLUDE
THE IMPACTS OF A PASSAGE OF A TROPICAL STORM NEAR THE REGION DURING MONDAY...WITH EFFECTS STARTING FOR THE WESTERN STRAITS AND MAYBE LOWER KEYS VERY LATE SUNDAY NIGHT. CONFIDENCE OF COURSE IS LOW IN THE TRACK FOR A NEWLY-HATCHED SYSTEM WHICH IS NOT WELL ORGANIZED.

NWS Miami-241pm EST Friday Nov 18th
THERE IS A POSSIBLE FLY IN THE OINTMENT
DEVELOPING WITH THE TROPICAL SYSTEM REDEVELOPING OVER THE NW CARIBBEAN.
AT THE PRESENT TIME, THIS SYSTEM WILL AT LEAST MOVE THROUGH THE FLORIDA STRAITS
OR THE SOUTHERN TIP OF FLORIDA MONDAY
FOLLOWED BY A COLD FRONT MONDAY EVENING. THERE IS A POSSIBILITY THAT THE COLD FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH SOUTH FLORIDA BEFORE THE SYSTEM GETS NEAR SOUTH FLORIDA. THEN THE SYSTEM WILL PASS WELL TO THE SOUTH.

NWS Melbourne 215pm EST Friday November 18th
SAT NIGHT...LATEST GFS INDICATING INVERTED TROUGH DEVELOPING OVER THE EASTERN GULF IN ADVANCE OF THE VIGOROUS TROUGH ALOFT DIGGING THROUGH THE SOUTHERN PLAINS. ONSHORE FLOW FORECAST TO DECREASE AS
THE SURFACE TROUGH DEVELOPS BUT MOISTURE VALUES ARE EXPECTED TO BE
ON THE INCREASE. MODEL POPS ARE 30-40 PERCENT SO HAVE INCREASED RAIN CHANCES
TO SCATTERED.

SUN-MON...MODEL TREND HAS BEEN FOR A SURFACE LOW TO FORM OVER THE EASTERN GULF AND LIFT NORTHEAST...RATHER THAN A MORE CLASSICAL LOW FORMATION ALONG THE EAST COAST. MODELS HAVE BEEN SHOWING
THE UPPER TROUGH DIGGING INTO THE GULF A LITTLE FURTHER WEST. THIS MAY BE AT LEAST PARTLY IN RESPONSE TO THE TROPICAL ENTITY AND ASSOCIATED UPPER LEVEL ANTICYCLONE OVER THE NORTHWEST CARIBBEAN. FORECAST CONFIDENCE IS STILL LOW DUE TO THIS SYSTEM. IT SHOULD BE POINTED OUT THAT UPPER LEVEL WINDS ARE PROGGED TO BE VERY STRONG...70 KNOTS OR GREATER ACROSS THE PENINSULA...SO IT LOOKS LIKE THE SYSTEM WOULD HAVE A DIFFICULT TIME MAKING A LOT OF NORTHWARD PROGRESS WITHOUT BEING STRONGLY SHEARED.

NWS Tampa 137pm EST Friday November 18th
.SHORT TERM (TONIGHT-SUN)...HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE SE U.S. WILL SLIDE EAST THRU THE PERIOD. THE WRN SHORTWAVE MENTIONED ABOVE WILL COMBINE WITH THE TROPICAL DISTURBANCE TO OUR SOUTH TO INDUCE AN
INVERTED TROF OVER THE ERN GULF BEGINNING SUNDAY. SFC FLOW OVER THE CWA WILL VEER THRU THE PERIOD FROM NNE TONIGHT TO SE BY SUN.
THE INCREASING MOISTURE WILL ALLOW FOR A BETTER CHANCE OF RAIN EACH DAY. GUIDANCE POPS JUMP TO THE LIKELY CATEGORY BY SUN.
PREVIOUS FORECAST BEGAN TO INCREASE POPS...AND WILL CONTINUE THAT TREND BUT STAY AT HIGH END SCT FOR NOW.
(a newer AFD exists...830pm EST, but there are no Tropical mentions.~danielw)

Full AFDs use links:
http://www.srh.noaa.gov/productview.php?pil=AFDEYW&max=51
http://www.srh.noaa.gov/productview.php?pil=AFDMFL&max=51
http://www.srh.noaa.gov/productview.php?pil=AFDMLB&max=51
http://www.srh.noaa.gov/productview.php?pil=AFDTBW&version=1&max=51

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Entire topic
Subject Posted by Posted on
* Tropical Storm Gamma Forms Near Honduras Clark Fri Nov 18 2005 08:34 PM
. * * Re: Tropical Storm Gamma Forms Near Honduras Lee-Delray   Mon Nov 21 2005 08:39 AM
. * * Re: Tropical Storm Gamma Forms Near Honduras Clark   Mon Nov 21 2005 09:43 AM
. * * Re: Tropical Storm Gamma Forms Near Honduras Psyber   Mon Nov 21 2005 11:36 AM
. * * Re: Tropical Storm Gamma Forms Near Honduras Tak   Mon Nov 21 2005 12:20 PM
. * * Re: Tropical Storm Gamma Forms Near Honduras HanKFranK   Mon Nov 21 2005 12:38 PM
. * * Re: Tropical Storm Gamma Forms Near Honduras Psyber   Mon Nov 21 2005 02:31 PM
. * * Re: Tropical Storm Gamma Forms Near Honduras Clark   Mon Nov 21 2005 05:41 PM
. * * Clarifications Ed DunhamAdministrator   Mon Nov 21 2005 09:11 PM
. * * Re: Tropical Storm Gamma Forms Near Honduras Lee-Delray   Mon Nov 21 2005 05:53 PM
. * * Re: Tropical Storm Gamma Forms Near Honduras Clark   Tue Nov 22 2005 01:39 AM
. * * delta time... HanKFranK   Tue Nov 22 2005 10:35 AM
. * * Re: delta time... Margie   Tue Nov 22 2005 12:21 PM
. * * Re: Tropical Storm Gamma Forms Near Honduras typhoon_tip   Mon Nov 21 2005 07:56 PM
. * * Global Warming and weather events.. typhoon_tip   Mon Nov 21 2005 08:35 PM
. * * Re: Global Warming and weather events.. ltpat228   Mon Nov 21 2005 09:38 PM
. * * A little hint.... Doombot!   Tue Nov 22 2005 12:40 AM
. * * Re: Global Warming and weather events.. HanKFranK   Mon Nov 21 2005 09:37 PM
. * * Re: Tropical Storm Gamma Forms Near Honduras Katie   Mon Nov 21 2005 03:28 PM
. * * Re: Tropical Storm Gamma Forms Near Honduras Clark   Mon Nov 21 2005 02:13 PM
. * * Re: Tropical Storm Gamma Forms Near Honduras ftlaudbob   Mon Nov 21 2005 11:13 AM
. * * Re: Tropical Storm Gamma Forms Near Honduras Hurricane Dad   Mon Nov 21 2005 11:18 AM
. * * Re: Tropical Storm Gamma Forms Near Honduras Rabbit   Mon Nov 21 2005 11:36 AM
. * * Re: Tropical Storm Gamma Forms Near Honduras Lee-Delray   Mon Nov 21 2005 12:14 PM
. * * Re: Tropical Storm Gamma Forms Near Honduras Rabbit   Mon Nov 21 2005 10:04 AM
. * * Re: Tropical Storm Gamma Forms Near Honduras Lee-Delray   Mon Nov 21 2005 10:02 AM
. * * Re: Tropical Storm Gamma Forms Near Honduras Lee-Delray   Sun Nov 20 2005 10:17 AM
. * * 95L HanKFranK   Sun Nov 20 2005 11:54 AM
. * * Re: 95L Genesis   Sun Nov 20 2005 02:32 PM
. * * Re: 95L Lee-Delray   Sun Nov 20 2005 03:26 PM
. * * how about some predictions here?! vineyardsaker   Sun Nov 20 2005 07:32 PM
. * * Re: how about some predictions here?! Clark   Sun Nov 20 2005 08:43 PM
. * * GAMMA...Gone danielwAdministrator   Sun Nov 20 2005 10:54 PM
. * * 9 Days and counting danielwAdministrator   Sun Nov 20 2005 07:49 PM
. * * 95L and GOM Low danielwAdministrator   Sun Nov 20 2005 07:32 PM
. * * Re: Tropical Storm Gamma Forms Near Honduras Lee-Delray   Sat Nov 19 2005 09:44 PM
. * * Re: Tropical Storm Gamma Forms Near Honduras Lee-Delray   Sat Nov 19 2005 04:01 PM
. * * Re: Tropical Storm Gamma Forms Near Honduras ralphfl   Sat Nov 19 2005 05:38 PM
. * * Re: Tropical Storm Gamma Forms Near Honduras pincty   Sat Nov 19 2005 07:03 PM
. * * Tropical Storm Classification danielwAdministrator   Sat Nov 19 2005 08:27 PM
. * * Re: Tropical Storm Classification WXMAN RICHIE   Sat Nov 19 2005 08:41 PM
. * * Re: Tropical Storm Classification danielwAdministrator   Sat Nov 19 2005 08:50 PM
. * * More points to ponder danielwAdministrator   Sat Nov 19 2005 09:18 PM
. * * Re: More points to ponder Old Sailor   Sat Nov 19 2005 10:37 PM
. * * Re: Tropical Storm Gamma Forms Near Honduras ftlaudbob   Sat Nov 19 2005 04:07 PM
. * * Re: Tropical Storm Gamma Forms Near Honduras Lee-Delray   Sat Nov 19 2005 01:10 PM
. * * Re: Tropical Storm Gamma Forms Near Honduras Old Sailor   Sat Nov 19 2005 01:37 PM
. * * Re: Tropical Storm Gamma Forms Near Honduras dave foster   Sat Nov 19 2005 01:47 PM
. * * Re: Tropical Storm Gamma Forms Near Honduras Lee-Delray   Sat Nov 19 2005 11:45 AM
. * * Re: Tropical Storm Gamma Forms Near Honduras bobbutts   Sat Nov 19 2005 12:59 PM
. * * Re: Tropical Storm Gamma Forms Near Honduras MikeCAdministrator   Sat Nov 19 2005 11:37 AM
. * * Re: Tropical Storm Gamma Forms Near Honduras srsarner   Sat Nov 19 2005 09:34 AM
. * * Re: Tropical Storm Gamma Forms Near Honduras Ed DunhamAdministrator   Sat Nov 19 2005 10:01 AM
. * * Re: Tropical Storm Gamma Forms Near Honduras Clark   Sat Nov 19 2005 11:06 PM
. * * Re: Tropical Storm Gamma Forms Near Honduras Margie   Sat Nov 19 2005 04:36 PM
. * * Re: Tropical Storm Gamma Forms Near Honduras Lee-Delray   Sat Nov 19 2005 04:46 PM
. * * Bye Bye Gamma Wxwatcher2   Sat Nov 19 2005 05:09 PM
. * * Re: Bye Bye Gamma Clark   Sat Nov 19 2005 11:10 PM
. * * Re: Bye Bye Gamma Lee-Delray   Sat Nov 19 2005 05:14 PM
. * * Re: Tropical Storm Gamma forms near Honduras Katie   Fri Nov 18 2005 03:49 PM
. * * Re: Tropical Storm Gamma forms near Honduras Tropics Guy   Fri Nov 18 2005 04:00 PM
. * * Weather Station WXMAN RICHIE   Fri Nov 18 2005 03:59 PM
. * * Re: Tropical Storm Gamma forms near Honduras ralphfl   Fri Nov 18 2005 03:56 PM
. * * Re: Tropical Storm Gamma forms near Honduras Thunderbird12   Fri Nov 18 2005 04:00 PM
. * * Re: Tropical Storm Gamma forms near Honduras Margie   Fri Nov 18 2005 04:07 PM
. * * Re: Tropical Storm Gamma forms near Honduras Tak   Fri Nov 18 2005 04:21 PM
. * * Re: Tropical Storm Gamma forms near Honduras Rich B   Fri Nov 18 2005 04:33 PM
. * * Re: Tropical Storm Gamma forms near Honduras Thunderbird12   Fri Nov 18 2005 04:46 PM
. * * Re: Tropical Storm Gamma forms near Honduras Margie   Fri Nov 18 2005 04:46 PM
. * * Re: Tropical Storm Gamma forms near Honduras Rich B   Fri Nov 18 2005 05:21 PM
. * * Re: Tropical Storm Gamma forms near Honduras Margie   Fri Nov 18 2005 05:23 PM
. * * Re: Tropical Storm Gamma forms near Honduras Wxwatcher2   Fri Nov 18 2005 05:33 PM
. * * Re: Tropical Storm Gamma forms near Honduras WXMAN RICHIE   Fri Nov 18 2005 04:39 PM
. * * Re: Tropical Storm Gamma forms near Honduras Lee-Delray   Fri Nov 18 2005 04:37 PM
. * * Re: Tropical Storm Gamma forms near Honduras Tak   Fri Nov 18 2005 05:07 PM
. * * Re: Tropical Storm Gamma forms near Honduras Lee-Delray   Fri Nov 18 2005 05:12 PM
. * * Re: Tropical Storm Gamma forms near Honduras ralphfl   Fri Nov 18 2005 05:16 PM
. * * Re: Tropical Storm Gamma forms near Honduras Lysis   Fri Nov 18 2005 05:21 PM
. * * Re: Tropical Storm Gamma forms near Honduras WXMAN RICHIE   Fri Nov 18 2005 06:09 PM
. * * Re: Tropical Storm Gamma forms near Honduras Thunderbird12   Fri Nov 18 2005 06:17 PM
. * * Re: Tropical Storm Gamma forms near Honduras dave foster   Fri Nov 18 2005 06:43 PM
. * * Re: Tropical Storm Gamma forms near Honduras ralphfl   Fri Nov 18 2005 05:58 PM
. * * Re: Tropical Storm Gamma forms near Honduras ralphfl   Fri Nov 18 2005 10:30 PM
. * * Re: Tropical Storm Gamma forms near Honduras pincty   Fri Nov 18 2005 06:49 PM
. * * Re: Tropical Storm Gamma forms near Honduras Dawn   Fri Nov 18 2005 07:04 PM
. * * Re: Tropical Storm Gamma forms near Honduras ChessieStorm   Fri Nov 18 2005 11:07 PM
. * * Re: Tropical Storm Gamma forms near Honduras danielwAdministrator   Fri Nov 18 2005 11:18 PM
. * * Re: Tropical Storm Gamma forms near Honduras saluki   Sat Nov 19 2005 01:18 AM
. * * 4 AM EST Advisory...oops danielwAdministrator   Sat Nov 19 2005 04:15 AM
. * * Re: 4 AM EST Advisory...oops danielwAdministrator   Sat Nov 19 2005 04:27 AM
. * * Re: 4 AM EST Advisory...oops Hugh   Sat Nov 19 2005 09:32 AM
. * * Re: 4 AM EST Advisory...oops ralphfl   Sat Nov 19 2005 08:00 AM
. * * Re: Tropical Storm Gamma forms near Honduras pincty   Fri Nov 18 2005 07:14 PM
. * * Why I think it's heading to Tampa Bloodstar   Fri Nov 18 2005 06:36 PM
. * * Re: Why I think it's heading to Tampa Hootowl   Fri Nov 18 2005 07:03 PM
. * * Re: Why I think it's heading to Tampa Ron Basso   Fri Nov 18 2005 07:24 PM
. * * Re: Why I think it's heading to Tampa HanKFranK   Fri Nov 18 2005 07:55 PM
. * * Re: Why I think it's heading to Tampa *Killed -- Sent to Graveyard* collegemom   Fri Nov 18 2005 07:33 PM
. * * Re: Why I think it's heading to Tampa Lee-Delray   Fri Nov 18 2005 07:48 PM
. * * Re: Why I think it's heading to Tampa weatherwatcher999   Fri Nov 18 2005 08:08 PM
. * * Re: Why I think it's heading to Tampa Major7   Fri Nov 18 2005 09:49 PM
. * * Gamma danielwAdministrator   Fri Nov 18 2005 08:20 PM
. * * Area Forecast Dicussion excerpts danielwAdministrator   Fri Nov 18 2005 08:34 PM
. * * SHIPS forecast danielwAdministrator   Fri Nov 18 2005 09:02 PM
. * * Re: SHIPS forecast Lee-Delray   Fri Nov 18 2005 09:07 PM
. * * Re: SHIPS forecast laxpimpj   Fri Nov 18 2005 09:47 PM
. * * Classes and Recon danielwAdministrator   Fri Nov 18 2005 09:56 PM
. * * Re: Classes and Recon dave foster   Fri Nov 18 2005 10:09 PM
. * * Re: SHIPS forecast Hugh   Fri Nov 18 2005 09:49 PM
. * * Gamma Hugh   Fri Nov 18 2005 09:46 PM
. * * Re: Why I think it's heading to Tampa Hugh   Fri Nov 18 2005 07:03 PM
. * * Re: Tropical Storm Gamma forms near Honduras Lee-Delray   Fri Nov 18 2005 06:07 PM
. * * Re: Tropical Storm Gamma forms near Honduras Tak   Fri Nov 18 2005 05:55 PM
. * * Re: Tropical Storm Gamma rmbjoe1954   Fri Nov 18 2005 04:43 PM
. * * Re: Tropical Storm Gamma forms near Honduras Rich B   Fri Nov 18 2005 04:39 PM
. * * Re: Tropical Storm Gamma forms near Honduras Lee-Delray   Fri Nov 18 2005 04:44 PM
. * * Re: Tropical Storm Gamma forms near Honduras Lee-Delray   Fri Nov 18 2005 04:16 PM
. * * Re: Tropical Storm Gamma forms near Honduras HURRICANELONNY   Fri Nov 18 2005 03:55 PM
. * * Re: Tropical Storm Gamma forms near Honduras *DELETED* Lee-Delray   Fri Nov 18 2005 03:57 PM
. * * Re: Tropical Storm Gamma forms near Honduras ralphfl   Fri Nov 18 2005 03:59 PM
. * * Re: Tropical Storm Gamma forms near Honduras Lee-Delray   Fri Nov 18 2005 04:02 PM
. * * Re: Tropical Storm Gamma forms near Honduras ralphfl   Fri Nov 18 2005 04:05 PM
. * * Re: Tropical Storm Gamma forms near Honduras HURRICANELONNY   Fri Nov 18 2005 04:05 PM

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