This is another excerpt of the 4 AM Advisory. The words; Break, Weakness and Alley somewhat raise the threat level to me personally. I have highlighted those 3 words for emphasis~danielw
...UPPER-AIR DATA AT 00Z... ALBEIT LIMITED ACROSS THE CARIBBEAN AREA EXCEPT FOR BELIZE... INDICATE A BREAK IN THE 500 MB AND 400 MB RIDGE AXES ACROSS THE NORTHWESTERN CARIBBEAN SEA...YUCATAN CHANNEL... WESTERN CUBA AND SOUTHEASTERN GULF OF MEXICO. A WEAKNESS IN THE RIDGE TO THE NORTH OF GAMMA IS ALSO BEGINNING TO APPEAR AT THE 700 MB LEVEL. THE COMBINATION OF THE WEAKENING RIDGE ALONG 85W LONGITUDE AND THE MODERATE TO STRONG UPPER-LEVEL SOUTHERLY FLOW ACROSS THE WESTERN CARIBBEAN SHOULD OPEN AN ALLEY FOR GAMMA TO MOVE NORTHWARD THROUGH OVER THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS.
AFTER THAT... A SERIES OF SHORTWAVE TROUGHS CURRENTLY OVER THE U.S. PLAINS STATES ARE FORECAST BY ALL THE MODELS TO MERGE AND DEVELOP INTO A HIGH-AMPLITUDE TROUGH OVER THE EASTERN U.S. AND THE EASTERN GULF OF MEXICO BY 72 HOURS. THIS FEATURE IS EXPECTED TO INDUCE SOUTHWESTERLY TO WESTERLY STEERING FLOW NORTH OF 20N LATITUDE BY 60-72 HOURS... WHICH SHOULD RESULT IN GAMMA LIFTING OUT TO THE NORTHEAST ACROSS WESTERN CUBA... THE BAHAMAS... AND POSSIBLY SOUTH FLORIDA.
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