east altlantic hybrid type system is revving up this morning. it has a comma signature but a convective core, so the nrl folks put an invest out on it. nothing out of ssd yet. it's sort of pick-your-model with it right now... euro has it washing out in about a week, while gfs has it loitering out there under the nao-negative block for two weeks. it's lifting off right now in a baroclinic zone, but should be blocked and forced south next week. potential analog track may be peter of 2003. it's way the heck out there, though, so just a potential padding of the numbers, if it can develop tropical characteristics over marginal waters, from a non-tropical profile. gamma has had all of its convection sheared away, and is meandering ahead of an oncoming frontal zone. it may be classified as a nonconvective low before the front gets to it. should wash out into a vorticity zone in the western caribbean in the next couple of days. the rain-noreaster in the gulf is already forming, and should sweep up the east coast without taking gamma. looks like the 2005 threat is down to whatever can spin up a meager existence in the caribbean, and whatever else can linger in the central or eastern atlantic until it gets a tropical profile. we're essentially done, with the threat gamma was thought to pose friday having evaporated. HF 1654z20november
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