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Archives >> 2005 News Talkbacks

typhoon_tip
Meteorologist


Reged: Wed
Posts: 573
Global Warming and weather events..
      Mon Nov 21 2005 08:35 PM

..The AMO is an SST index (Atlantic Multidecadal Oscillation) with a periodicity of 65-80 years, and a variance defined by an average value of about 1/2 a degree C. This is important because we have since 1990 been, as expected, on the curve toward the + side of neutral - meaning the warm phase has begun. The connection this normal and expected interval of warm SST has to the increase in hurricane frequency/intensities needs to be defined and parameterized first before any conclusions could possibly acquire veracity.

Clark is dead right when he intimates that you cannot assume the current apparent augmentation in both frequencies and intensities are due outrightly to Global Warming - though I have noticed that some media sources are taking more liberties with that assumption, as though it is becoming theory somehow by proxy or something....because for one reason among many, the current activity would likely have taken place in the absence of the last 30 years of Global numbers - or at least, the contrary has to be proven.

Further complicating the matters is that from a purely physical point of view, (and physical processes drive the atmosphere to begin with ) the gradients must be increased in coupled system to actually create the greater potential energy, and subsequent intensity, because potential energy is defined by dipolar gradient. If everyone is hot, that does not mean the gradients are sufficiently increased in the means, supplying storm intensities in general. If those gradients can be defined, this concern is compensated for, but I haven't really seen much evidence to support the gradients them selves being augmented through all of this... All the data that I have seen suggests that the Polar regions are warming just as smartly as the tropical regions, and therefore, the gradient is not any more sufficiently larger than a century ago, when both the tropics and the polar regions were cooler.. In other words, they're increasing in tandem (excuse the pun) in greater degree. Nor does there to appear to be an overwhelming gradient in the vertical in general - maybe some, but there's upper tropospheric indices as well....and around and around we go.

We turn on the television and radio every morning with our cup of joe and a donut and the first thing we hear is a Fox spun news story garnering hysteria over a 11 deaths from a freak November tornado outbreak... Fact of the matter is, there is a climatological precidents for a slight increase in tornado activity in the autumn, just prior to the seasonal flux. And....Holy Moly, a week later we have a +PNA pattern with a -6SD sub-polar vortex defining its core; it is no coincidence that we had these "freak" events last week because it was a super-duper transition period. There are other disasterous autumn twister events however, spanning decades...

Moreover, the hurricane frequency is entirely expected (intensity is an on-going debate), and fits nicely along expectation; which will likely also continue for ~ 1.5 decades (doesn't mean we're going to have 22 this or that every year...just that the atm is teleconnected to being conditioned for higher than normal activity. ) This periodicity in hurricane frequency has a time-span of about 20-30 years.

It is entirely possible that the intensity aspect of this expected frequency shift is because of compounding factors...If the AMO is increasing at its greatest rate during the next 3 decades, and in the first half of that 3 decades, we are also in the positive phase of hurricane frequencies, the latter may feed off the former... and it wouldn't have to be fore Global Warming. Just a supposition..

Now, having said all that...Yes, Global Warming is real.

Edited by typhoon_tip (Mon Nov 21 2005 08:45 PM)

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Entire topic
Subject Posted by Posted on
* Tropical Storm Gamma Forms Near Honduras Clark Mon Nov 21 2005 08:35 PM
. * * Re: Tropical Storm Gamma Forms Near Honduras Lee-Delray   Mon Nov 21 2005 08:39 AM
. * * Re: Tropical Storm Gamma Forms Near Honduras Clark   Mon Nov 21 2005 09:43 AM
. * * Re: Tropical Storm Gamma Forms Near Honduras Psyber   Mon Nov 21 2005 11:36 AM
. * * Re: Tropical Storm Gamma Forms Near Honduras Tak   Mon Nov 21 2005 12:20 PM
. * * Re: Tropical Storm Gamma Forms Near Honduras HanKFranK   Mon Nov 21 2005 12:38 PM
. * * Re: Tropical Storm Gamma Forms Near Honduras Psyber   Mon Nov 21 2005 02:31 PM
. * * Re: Tropical Storm Gamma Forms Near Honduras Clark   Mon Nov 21 2005 05:41 PM
. * * Clarifications Ed DunhamAdministrator   Mon Nov 21 2005 09:11 PM
. * * Re: Tropical Storm Gamma Forms Near Honduras Lee-Delray   Mon Nov 21 2005 05:53 PM
. * * Re: Tropical Storm Gamma Forms Near Honduras Clark   Tue Nov 22 2005 01:39 AM
. * * delta time... HanKFranK   Tue Nov 22 2005 10:35 AM
. * * Re: delta time... Margie   Tue Nov 22 2005 12:21 PM
. * * Re: Tropical Storm Gamma Forms Near Honduras typhoon_tip   Mon Nov 21 2005 07:56 PM
. * * Global Warming and weather events.. typhoon_tip   Mon Nov 21 2005 08:35 PM
. * * Re: Global Warming and weather events.. ltpat228   Mon Nov 21 2005 09:38 PM
. * * A little hint.... Doombot!   Tue Nov 22 2005 12:40 AM
. * * Re: Global Warming and weather events.. HanKFranK   Mon Nov 21 2005 09:37 PM
. * * Re: Tropical Storm Gamma Forms Near Honduras Katie   Mon Nov 21 2005 03:28 PM
. * * Re: Tropical Storm Gamma Forms Near Honduras Clark   Mon Nov 21 2005 02:13 PM
. * * Re: Tropical Storm Gamma Forms Near Honduras ftlaudbob   Mon Nov 21 2005 11:13 AM
. * * Re: Tropical Storm Gamma Forms Near Honduras Hurricane Dad   Mon Nov 21 2005 11:18 AM
. * * Re: Tropical Storm Gamma Forms Near Honduras Rabbit   Mon Nov 21 2005 11:36 AM
. * * Re: Tropical Storm Gamma Forms Near Honduras Lee-Delray   Mon Nov 21 2005 12:14 PM
. * * Re: Tropical Storm Gamma Forms Near Honduras Rabbit   Mon Nov 21 2005 10:04 AM
. * * Re: Tropical Storm Gamma Forms Near Honduras Lee-Delray   Mon Nov 21 2005 10:02 AM
. * * Re: Tropical Storm Gamma Forms Near Honduras Lee-Delray   Sun Nov 20 2005 10:17 AM
. * * 95L HanKFranK   Sun Nov 20 2005 11:54 AM
. * * Re: 95L Genesis   Sun Nov 20 2005 02:32 PM
. * * Re: 95L Lee-Delray   Sun Nov 20 2005 03:26 PM
. * * how about some predictions here?! vineyardsaker   Sun Nov 20 2005 07:32 PM
. * * Re: how about some predictions here?! Clark   Sun Nov 20 2005 08:43 PM
. * * GAMMA...Gone danielwAdministrator   Sun Nov 20 2005 10:54 PM
. * * 9 Days and counting danielwAdministrator   Sun Nov 20 2005 07:49 PM
. * * 95L and GOM Low danielwAdministrator   Sun Nov 20 2005 07:32 PM
. * * Re: Tropical Storm Gamma Forms Near Honduras Lee-Delray   Sat Nov 19 2005 09:44 PM
. * * Re: Tropical Storm Gamma Forms Near Honduras Lee-Delray   Sat Nov 19 2005 04:01 PM
. * * Re: Tropical Storm Gamma Forms Near Honduras ralphfl   Sat Nov 19 2005 05:38 PM
. * * Re: Tropical Storm Gamma Forms Near Honduras pincty   Sat Nov 19 2005 07:03 PM
. * * Tropical Storm Classification danielwAdministrator   Sat Nov 19 2005 08:27 PM
. * * Re: Tropical Storm Classification WXMAN RICHIE   Sat Nov 19 2005 08:41 PM
. * * Re: Tropical Storm Classification danielwAdministrator   Sat Nov 19 2005 08:50 PM
. * * More points to ponder danielwAdministrator   Sat Nov 19 2005 09:18 PM
. * * Re: More points to ponder Old Sailor   Sat Nov 19 2005 10:37 PM
. * * Re: Tropical Storm Gamma Forms Near Honduras ftlaudbob   Sat Nov 19 2005 04:07 PM
. * * Re: Tropical Storm Gamma Forms Near Honduras Lee-Delray   Sat Nov 19 2005 01:10 PM
. * * Re: Tropical Storm Gamma Forms Near Honduras Old Sailor   Sat Nov 19 2005 01:37 PM
. * * Re: Tropical Storm Gamma Forms Near Honduras dave foster   Sat Nov 19 2005 01:47 PM
. * * Re: Tropical Storm Gamma Forms Near Honduras Lee-Delray   Sat Nov 19 2005 11:45 AM
. * * Re: Tropical Storm Gamma Forms Near Honduras bobbutts   Sat Nov 19 2005 12:59 PM
. * * Re: Tropical Storm Gamma Forms Near Honduras MikeCAdministrator   Sat Nov 19 2005 11:37 AM
. * * Re: Tropical Storm Gamma Forms Near Honduras srsarner   Sat Nov 19 2005 09:34 AM
. * * Re: Tropical Storm Gamma Forms Near Honduras Ed DunhamAdministrator   Sat Nov 19 2005 10:01 AM
. * * Re: Tropical Storm Gamma Forms Near Honduras Clark   Sat Nov 19 2005 11:06 PM
. * * Re: Tropical Storm Gamma Forms Near Honduras Margie   Sat Nov 19 2005 04:36 PM
. * * Re: Tropical Storm Gamma Forms Near Honduras Lee-Delray   Sat Nov 19 2005 04:46 PM
. * * Bye Bye Gamma Wxwatcher2   Sat Nov 19 2005 05:09 PM
. * * Re: Bye Bye Gamma Clark   Sat Nov 19 2005 11:10 PM
. * * Re: Bye Bye Gamma Lee-Delray   Sat Nov 19 2005 05:14 PM
. * * Re: Tropical Storm Gamma forms near Honduras Katie   Fri Nov 18 2005 03:49 PM
. * * Re: Tropical Storm Gamma forms near Honduras Tropics Guy   Fri Nov 18 2005 04:00 PM
. * * Weather Station WXMAN RICHIE   Fri Nov 18 2005 03:59 PM
. * * Re: Tropical Storm Gamma forms near Honduras ralphfl   Fri Nov 18 2005 03:56 PM
. * * Re: Tropical Storm Gamma forms near Honduras Thunderbird12   Fri Nov 18 2005 04:00 PM
. * * Re: Tropical Storm Gamma forms near Honduras Margie   Fri Nov 18 2005 04:07 PM
. * * Re: Tropical Storm Gamma forms near Honduras Tak   Fri Nov 18 2005 04:21 PM
. * * Re: Tropical Storm Gamma forms near Honduras Rich B   Fri Nov 18 2005 04:33 PM
. * * Re: Tropical Storm Gamma forms near Honduras Thunderbird12   Fri Nov 18 2005 04:46 PM
. * * Re: Tropical Storm Gamma forms near Honduras Margie   Fri Nov 18 2005 04:46 PM
. * * Re: Tropical Storm Gamma forms near Honduras Rich B   Fri Nov 18 2005 05:21 PM
. * * Re: Tropical Storm Gamma forms near Honduras Margie   Fri Nov 18 2005 05:23 PM
. * * Re: Tropical Storm Gamma forms near Honduras Wxwatcher2   Fri Nov 18 2005 05:33 PM
. * * Re: Tropical Storm Gamma forms near Honduras WXMAN RICHIE   Fri Nov 18 2005 04:39 PM
. * * Re: Tropical Storm Gamma forms near Honduras Lee-Delray   Fri Nov 18 2005 04:37 PM
. * * Re: Tropical Storm Gamma forms near Honduras Tak   Fri Nov 18 2005 05:07 PM
. * * Re: Tropical Storm Gamma forms near Honduras Lee-Delray   Fri Nov 18 2005 05:12 PM
. * * Re: Tropical Storm Gamma forms near Honduras ralphfl   Fri Nov 18 2005 05:16 PM
. * * Re: Tropical Storm Gamma forms near Honduras Lysis   Fri Nov 18 2005 05:21 PM
. * * Re: Tropical Storm Gamma forms near Honduras WXMAN RICHIE   Fri Nov 18 2005 06:09 PM
. * * Re: Tropical Storm Gamma forms near Honduras Thunderbird12   Fri Nov 18 2005 06:17 PM
. * * Re: Tropical Storm Gamma forms near Honduras dave foster   Fri Nov 18 2005 06:43 PM
. * * Re: Tropical Storm Gamma forms near Honduras ralphfl   Fri Nov 18 2005 05:58 PM
. * * Re: Tropical Storm Gamma forms near Honduras ralphfl   Fri Nov 18 2005 10:30 PM
. * * Re: Tropical Storm Gamma forms near Honduras pincty   Fri Nov 18 2005 06:49 PM
. * * Re: Tropical Storm Gamma forms near Honduras Dawn   Fri Nov 18 2005 07:04 PM
. * * Re: Tropical Storm Gamma forms near Honduras ChessieStorm   Fri Nov 18 2005 11:07 PM
. * * Re: Tropical Storm Gamma forms near Honduras danielwAdministrator   Fri Nov 18 2005 11:18 PM
. * * Re: Tropical Storm Gamma forms near Honduras saluki   Sat Nov 19 2005 01:18 AM
. * * 4 AM EST Advisory...oops danielwAdministrator   Sat Nov 19 2005 04:15 AM
. * * Re: 4 AM EST Advisory...oops danielwAdministrator   Sat Nov 19 2005 04:27 AM
. * * Re: 4 AM EST Advisory...oops Hugh   Sat Nov 19 2005 09:32 AM
. * * Re: 4 AM EST Advisory...oops ralphfl   Sat Nov 19 2005 08:00 AM
. * * Re: Tropical Storm Gamma forms near Honduras pincty   Fri Nov 18 2005 07:14 PM
. * * Why I think it's heading to Tampa Bloodstar   Fri Nov 18 2005 06:36 PM
. * * Re: Why I think it's heading to Tampa Hootowl   Fri Nov 18 2005 07:03 PM
. * * Re: Why I think it's heading to Tampa Ron Basso   Fri Nov 18 2005 07:24 PM
. * * Re: Why I think it's heading to Tampa HanKFranK   Fri Nov 18 2005 07:55 PM
. * * Re: Why I think it's heading to Tampa *Killed -- Sent to Graveyard* collegemom   Fri Nov 18 2005 07:33 PM
. * * Re: Why I think it's heading to Tampa Lee-Delray   Fri Nov 18 2005 07:48 PM
. * * Re: Why I think it's heading to Tampa weatherwatcher999   Fri Nov 18 2005 08:08 PM
. * * Re: Why I think it's heading to Tampa Major7   Fri Nov 18 2005 09:49 PM
. * * Gamma danielwAdministrator   Fri Nov 18 2005 08:20 PM
. * * Area Forecast Dicussion excerpts danielwAdministrator   Fri Nov 18 2005 08:34 PM
. * * SHIPS forecast danielwAdministrator   Fri Nov 18 2005 09:02 PM
. * * Re: SHIPS forecast Lee-Delray   Fri Nov 18 2005 09:07 PM
. * * Re: SHIPS forecast laxpimpj   Fri Nov 18 2005 09:47 PM
. * * Classes and Recon danielwAdministrator   Fri Nov 18 2005 09:56 PM
. * * Re: Classes and Recon dave foster   Fri Nov 18 2005 10:09 PM
. * * Re: SHIPS forecast Hugh   Fri Nov 18 2005 09:49 PM
. * * Gamma Hugh   Fri Nov 18 2005 09:46 PM
. * * Re: Why I think it's heading to Tampa Hugh   Fri Nov 18 2005 07:03 PM
. * * Re: Tropical Storm Gamma forms near Honduras Lee-Delray   Fri Nov 18 2005 06:07 PM
. * * Re: Tropical Storm Gamma forms near Honduras Tak   Fri Nov 18 2005 05:55 PM
. * * Re: Tropical Storm Gamma rmbjoe1954   Fri Nov 18 2005 04:43 PM
. * * Re: Tropical Storm Gamma forms near Honduras Rich B   Fri Nov 18 2005 04:39 PM
. * * Re: Tropical Storm Gamma forms near Honduras Lee-Delray   Fri Nov 18 2005 04:44 PM
. * * Re: Tropical Storm Gamma forms near Honduras Lee-Delray   Fri Nov 18 2005 04:16 PM
. * * Re: Tropical Storm Gamma forms near Honduras HURRICANELONNY   Fri Nov 18 2005 03:55 PM
. * * Re: Tropical Storm Gamma forms near Honduras *DELETED* Lee-Delray   Fri Nov 18 2005 03:57 PM
. * * Re: Tropical Storm Gamma forms near Honduras ralphfl   Fri Nov 18 2005 03:59 PM
. * * Re: Tropical Storm Gamma forms near Honduras Lee-Delray   Fri Nov 18 2005 04:02 PM
. * * Re: Tropical Storm Gamma forms near Honduras ralphfl   Fri Nov 18 2005 04:05 PM
. * * Re: Tropical Storm Gamma forms near Honduras HURRICANELONNY   Fri Nov 18 2005 04:05 PM

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