Current Radar or Satellite Image

Flhurricane.com - Central Florida Hurricane CenterHurricanes Without the Hype! Since 1995


Tracking a Caribbean Wave and keeping an eye on the potential for new Caribbean Gyre/Trough development next week
Days since last H. Landfall - US: Any 15 (Nate) , Major: 33 (Maria) Florida - Any: 43 (Irma) Major: 43 (Irma)
None
COMMUNICATION
STORM DATA
CONTENT
FOLLOW US
ADS
Login to remove ads

 


Archives >> 2005 News Talkbacks

Clark
Meteorologist


Reged: Wed
Posts: 1710
Re: Tropical Storm Gamma Forms Near Honduras
      Tue Nov 22 2005 01:39 AM

typhoon_tip and HF pretty much hit the nail on the head regarding 95L out there and subtropical vs. tropical cyclones, so I'll only add a few tidbits.

You can get a lower-level warm core (like you see in a tropical system) when you have convection firing near the center of a cold-core system. More often than not, this convection is a response to the process of gathering heat and moisture from the ocean's surface going, which can lead to the development of this lower-level warm core. (Note that convection does not directly provide the heating for this, though!) If it goes on for long enough given other favorable conditions, you can get a subtropical cyclone out of it.

If the convection persists, the inner core gets going (maximum winds move inward toward the center of the storm rather than found well removed from it), and underlying conditions are still favorable, you can get an upward growth of this warm core into the upper levels. This is what brings about "tropical transition" and the development of a tropical cyclone.

(If any of this is too technical/scientific, please send me a message and I'll try to clarify.)

The identification of subtropical cyclones and tropical cyclones growing out of extratropical systems has really taken off in the past few years, largely in response to having someone at the NHC really keen on those hybrid-type of storms (Jack Beven) and at least partially in response to the cyclone phase space (http://moe.met.fsu.edu/cyclonephase/) that helps identify those storms with a fair degree of accuracy. You'll probably see some subtropical phase added to Vince in the final report and, if this develops, probably here too.

The satellite appearance of 95L continues to improve, with convection trying to wrap around the southeast side of the storm (and, more importantly, persist). QuikSCAT wind fields suggest a rather broad wind field, albeit one with maximum winds relatively close to the center of circulation. Not all of the 00z model guidance is in, but the available guidance (Canadian and UKMET) show that the system is completing tropical transition now and has had a shallow warm core for some time now. This agrees well with what the other models were showing in terms of forecast evolution earlier today. (Note that this discussion follows from the diagrams at http://moe.met.fsu.edu/cyclonephase/.) I imagine the NHC is waiting for a little bit more separation from the trough to the north of the storm before pulling the trigger on this one; it's likely only a matter of time before they do so. It'll probably start as a subtropical storm before becoming a tropical storm -- Delta -- shortly thereafter. We'll see what actually pans out over the next day or two.

Post Extras Print Post   Remind Me!     Notify Moderator


Entire topic
Subject Posted by Posted on
* Tropical Storm Gamma Forms Near Honduras Clark Tue Nov 22 2005 01:39 AM
. * * Re: Tropical Storm Gamma Forms Near Honduras Lee-Delray   Mon Nov 21 2005 08:39 AM
. * * Re: Tropical Storm Gamma Forms Near Honduras Clark   Mon Nov 21 2005 09:43 AM
. * * Re: Tropical Storm Gamma Forms Near Honduras Psyber   Mon Nov 21 2005 11:36 AM
. * * Re: Tropical Storm Gamma Forms Near Honduras Tak   Mon Nov 21 2005 12:20 PM
. * * Re: Tropical Storm Gamma Forms Near Honduras HanKFranK   Mon Nov 21 2005 12:38 PM
. * * Re: Tropical Storm Gamma Forms Near Honduras Psyber   Mon Nov 21 2005 02:31 PM
. * * Re: Tropical Storm Gamma Forms Near Honduras Clark   Mon Nov 21 2005 05:41 PM
. * * Clarifications Ed DunhamAdministrator   Mon Nov 21 2005 09:11 PM
. * * Re: Tropical Storm Gamma Forms Near Honduras Lee-Delray   Mon Nov 21 2005 05:53 PM
. * * Re: Tropical Storm Gamma Forms Near Honduras Clark   Tue Nov 22 2005 01:39 AM
. * * delta time... HanKFranK   Tue Nov 22 2005 10:35 AM
. * * Re: delta time... Margie   Tue Nov 22 2005 12:21 PM
. * * Re: Tropical Storm Gamma Forms Near Honduras typhoon_tip   Mon Nov 21 2005 07:56 PM
. * * Global Warming and weather events.. typhoon_tip   Mon Nov 21 2005 08:35 PM
. * * Re: Global Warming and weather events.. ltpat228   Mon Nov 21 2005 09:38 PM
. * * A little hint.... Doombot!   Tue Nov 22 2005 12:40 AM
. * * Re: Global Warming and weather events.. HanKFranK   Mon Nov 21 2005 09:37 PM
. * * Re: Tropical Storm Gamma Forms Near Honduras Katie   Mon Nov 21 2005 03:28 PM
. * * Re: Tropical Storm Gamma Forms Near Honduras Clark   Mon Nov 21 2005 02:13 PM
. * * Re: Tropical Storm Gamma Forms Near Honduras ftlaudbob   Mon Nov 21 2005 11:13 AM
. * * Re: Tropical Storm Gamma Forms Near Honduras Hurricane Dad   Mon Nov 21 2005 11:18 AM
. * * Re: Tropical Storm Gamma Forms Near Honduras Rabbit   Mon Nov 21 2005 11:36 AM
. * * Re: Tropical Storm Gamma Forms Near Honduras Lee-Delray   Mon Nov 21 2005 12:14 PM
. * * Re: Tropical Storm Gamma Forms Near Honduras Rabbit   Mon Nov 21 2005 10:04 AM
. * * Re: Tropical Storm Gamma Forms Near Honduras Lee-Delray   Mon Nov 21 2005 10:02 AM
. * * Re: Tropical Storm Gamma Forms Near Honduras Lee-Delray   Sun Nov 20 2005 10:17 AM
. * * 95L HanKFranK   Sun Nov 20 2005 11:54 AM
. * * Re: 95L Genesis   Sun Nov 20 2005 02:32 PM
. * * Re: 95L Lee-Delray   Sun Nov 20 2005 03:26 PM
. * * how about some predictions here?! vineyardsaker   Sun Nov 20 2005 07:32 PM
. * * Re: how about some predictions here?! Clark   Sun Nov 20 2005 08:43 PM
. * * GAMMA...Gone danielwAdministrator   Sun Nov 20 2005 10:54 PM
. * * 9 Days and counting danielwAdministrator   Sun Nov 20 2005 07:49 PM
. * * 95L and GOM Low danielwAdministrator   Sun Nov 20 2005 07:32 PM
. * * Re: Tropical Storm Gamma Forms Near Honduras Lee-Delray   Sat Nov 19 2005 09:44 PM
. * * Re: Tropical Storm Gamma Forms Near Honduras Lee-Delray   Sat Nov 19 2005 04:01 PM
. * * Re: Tropical Storm Gamma Forms Near Honduras ralphfl   Sat Nov 19 2005 05:38 PM
. * * Re: Tropical Storm Gamma Forms Near Honduras pincty   Sat Nov 19 2005 07:03 PM
. * * Tropical Storm Classification danielwAdministrator   Sat Nov 19 2005 08:27 PM
. * * Re: Tropical Storm Classification WXMAN RICHIE   Sat Nov 19 2005 08:41 PM
. * * Re: Tropical Storm Classification danielwAdministrator   Sat Nov 19 2005 08:50 PM
. * * More points to ponder danielwAdministrator   Sat Nov 19 2005 09:18 PM
. * * Re: More points to ponder Old Sailor   Sat Nov 19 2005 10:37 PM
. * * Re: Tropical Storm Gamma Forms Near Honduras ftlaudbob   Sat Nov 19 2005 04:07 PM
. * * Re: Tropical Storm Gamma Forms Near Honduras Lee-Delray   Sat Nov 19 2005 01:10 PM
. * * Re: Tropical Storm Gamma Forms Near Honduras Old Sailor   Sat Nov 19 2005 01:37 PM
. * * Re: Tropical Storm Gamma Forms Near Honduras dave foster   Sat Nov 19 2005 01:47 PM
. * * Re: Tropical Storm Gamma Forms Near Honduras Lee-Delray   Sat Nov 19 2005 11:45 AM
. * * Re: Tropical Storm Gamma Forms Near Honduras bobbutts   Sat Nov 19 2005 12:59 PM
. * * Re: Tropical Storm Gamma Forms Near Honduras MikeCAdministrator   Sat Nov 19 2005 11:37 AM
. * * Re: Tropical Storm Gamma Forms Near Honduras srsarner   Sat Nov 19 2005 09:34 AM
. * * Re: Tropical Storm Gamma Forms Near Honduras Ed DunhamAdministrator   Sat Nov 19 2005 10:01 AM
. * * Re: Tropical Storm Gamma Forms Near Honduras Clark   Sat Nov 19 2005 11:06 PM
. * * Re: Tropical Storm Gamma Forms Near Honduras Margie   Sat Nov 19 2005 04:36 PM
. * * Re: Tropical Storm Gamma Forms Near Honduras Lee-Delray   Sat Nov 19 2005 04:46 PM
. * * Bye Bye Gamma Wxwatcher2   Sat Nov 19 2005 05:09 PM
. * * Re: Bye Bye Gamma Clark   Sat Nov 19 2005 11:10 PM
. * * Re: Bye Bye Gamma Lee-Delray   Sat Nov 19 2005 05:14 PM
. * * Re: Tropical Storm Gamma forms near Honduras Katie   Fri Nov 18 2005 03:49 PM
. * * Re: Tropical Storm Gamma forms near Honduras Tropics Guy   Fri Nov 18 2005 04:00 PM
. * * Weather Station WXMAN RICHIE   Fri Nov 18 2005 03:59 PM
. * * Re: Tropical Storm Gamma forms near Honduras ralphfl   Fri Nov 18 2005 03:56 PM
. * * Re: Tropical Storm Gamma forms near Honduras Thunderbird12   Fri Nov 18 2005 04:00 PM
. * * Re: Tropical Storm Gamma forms near Honduras Margie   Fri Nov 18 2005 04:07 PM
. * * Re: Tropical Storm Gamma forms near Honduras Tak   Fri Nov 18 2005 04:21 PM
. * * Re: Tropical Storm Gamma forms near Honduras Rich B   Fri Nov 18 2005 04:33 PM
. * * Re: Tropical Storm Gamma forms near Honduras Thunderbird12   Fri Nov 18 2005 04:46 PM
. * * Re: Tropical Storm Gamma forms near Honduras Margie   Fri Nov 18 2005 04:46 PM
. * * Re: Tropical Storm Gamma forms near Honduras Rich B   Fri Nov 18 2005 05:21 PM
. * * Re: Tropical Storm Gamma forms near Honduras Margie   Fri Nov 18 2005 05:23 PM
. * * Re: Tropical Storm Gamma forms near Honduras Wxwatcher2   Fri Nov 18 2005 05:33 PM
. * * Re: Tropical Storm Gamma forms near Honduras WXMAN RICHIE   Fri Nov 18 2005 04:39 PM
. * * Re: Tropical Storm Gamma forms near Honduras Lee-Delray   Fri Nov 18 2005 04:37 PM
. * * Re: Tropical Storm Gamma forms near Honduras Tak   Fri Nov 18 2005 05:07 PM
. * * Re: Tropical Storm Gamma forms near Honduras Lee-Delray   Fri Nov 18 2005 05:12 PM
. * * Re: Tropical Storm Gamma forms near Honduras ralphfl   Fri Nov 18 2005 05:16 PM
. * * Re: Tropical Storm Gamma forms near Honduras Lysis   Fri Nov 18 2005 05:21 PM
. * * Re: Tropical Storm Gamma forms near Honduras WXMAN RICHIE   Fri Nov 18 2005 06:09 PM
. * * Re: Tropical Storm Gamma forms near Honduras Thunderbird12   Fri Nov 18 2005 06:17 PM
. * * Re: Tropical Storm Gamma forms near Honduras dave foster   Fri Nov 18 2005 06:43 PM
. * * Re: Tropical Storm Gamma forms near Honduras ralphfl   Fri Nov 18 2005 05:58 PM
. * * Re: Tropical Storm Gamma forms near Honduras ralphfl   Fri Nov 18 2005 10:30 PM
. * * Re: Tropical Storm Gamma forms near Honduras pincty   Fri Nov 18 2005 06:49 PM
. * * Re: Tropical Storm Gamma forms near Honduras Dawn   Fri Nov 18 2005 07:04 PM
. * * Re: Tropical Storm Gamma forms near Honduras ChessieStorm   Fri Nov 18 2005 11:07 PM
. * * Re: Tropical Storm Gamma forms near Honduras danielwAdministrator   Fri Nov 18 2005 11:18 PM
. * * Re: Tropical Storm Gamma forms near Honduras saluki   Sat Nov 19 2005 01:18 AM
. * * 4 AM EST Advisory...oops danielwAdministrator   Sat Nov 19 2005 04:15 AM
. * * Re: 4 AM EST Advisory...oops danielwAdministrator   Sat Nov 19 2005 04:27 AM
. * * Re: 4 AM EST Advisory...oops Hugh   Sat Nov 19 2005 09:32 AM
. * * Re: 4 AM EST Advisory...oops ralphfl   Sat Nov 19 2005 08:00 AM
. * * Re: Tropical Storm Gamma forms near Honduras pincty   Fri Nov 18 2005 07:14 PM
. * * Why I think it's heading to Tampa Bloodstar   Fri Nov 18 2005 06:36 PM
. * * Re: Why I think it's heading to Tampa Hootowl   Fri Nov 18 2005 07:03 PM
. * * Re: Why I think it's heading to Tampa Ron Basso   Fri Nov 18 2005 07:24 PM
. * * Re: Why I think it's heading to Tampa HanKFranK   Fri Nov 18 2005 07:55 PM
. * * Re: Why I think it's heading to Tampa *Killed -- Sent to Graveyard* collegemom   Fri Nov 18 2005 07:33 PM
. * * Re: Why I think it's heading to Tampa Lee-Delray   Fri Nov 18 2005 07:48 PM
. * * Re: Why I think it's heading to Tampa weatherwatcher999   Fri Nov 18 2005 08:08 PM
. * * Re: Why I think it's heading to Tampa Major7   Fri Nov 18 2005 09:49 PM
. * * Gamma danielwAdministrator   Fri Nov 18 2005 08:20 PM
. * * Area Forecast Dicussion excerpts danielwAdministrator   Fri Nov 18 2005 08:34 PM
. * * SHIPS forecast danielwAdministrator   Fri Nov 18 2005 09:02 PM
. * * Re: SHIPS forecast Lee-Delray   Fri Nov 18 2005 09:07 PM
. * * Re: SHIPS forecast laxpimpj   Fri Nov 18 2005 09:47 PM
. * * Classes and Recon danielwAdministrator   Fri Nov 18 2005 09:56 PM
. * * Re: Classes and Recon dave foster   Fri Nov 18 2005 10:09 PM
. * * Re: SHIPS forecast Hugh   Fri Nov 18 2005 09:49 PM
. * * Gamma Hugh   Fri Nov 18 2005 09:46 PM
. * * Re: Why I think it's heading to Tampa Hugh   Fri Nov 18 2005 07:03 PM
. * * Re: Tropical Storm Gamma forms near Honduras Lee-Delray   Fri Nov 18 2005 06:07 PM
. * * Re: Tropical Storm Gamma forms near Honduras Tak   Fri Nov 18 2005 05:55 PM
. * * Re: Tropical Storm Gamma rmbjoe1954   Fri Nov 18 2005 04:43 PM
. * * Re: Tropical Storm Gamma forms near Honduras Rich B   Fri Nov 18 2005 04:39 PM
. * * Re: Tropical Storm Gamma forms near Honduras Lee-Delray   Fri Nov 18 2005 04:44 PM
. * * Re: Tropical Storm Gamma forms near Honduras Lee-Delray   Fri Nov 18 2005 04:16 PM
. * * Re: Tropical Storm Gamma forms near Honduras HURRICANELONNY   Fri Nov 18 2005 03:55 PM
. * * Re: Tropical Storm Gamma forms near Honduras *DELETED* Lee-Delray   Fri Nov 18 2005 03:57 PM
. * * Re: Tropical Storm Gamma forms near Honduras ralphfl   Fri Nov 18 2005 03:59 PM
. * * Re: Tropical Storm Gamma forms near Honduras Lee-Delray   Fri Nov 18 2005 04:02 PM
. * * Re: Tropical Storm Gamma forms near Honduras ralphfl   Fri Nov 18 2005 04:05 PM
. * * Re: Tropical Storm Gamma forms near Honduras HURRICANELONNY   Fri Nov 18 2005 04:05 PM

Extra information
0 registered and 76 anonymous users are browsing this forum.

Moderator:  MikeC, Ed Dunham, danielw 



Forum Permissions
      You cannot start new topics
      You cannot reply to topics
      HTML is disabled
      UBBCode is enabled

Rating: *****
Thread views: 61199

Rate this thread

Jump to

Note: This is NOT an official page. It is run by weather hobbyists and should not be used as a replacement for official sources. 
CFHC's main servers are currently located at Hostdime.com in Orlando, FL.
Image Server Network thanks to Mike Potts and Amazon Web Services. If you have static file hosting space that allows dns aliasing contact us to help out! Some Maps Provided by:
Great thanks to all who donated and everyone who uses the site as well. Site designed for 800x600+ resolution
When in doubt, take the word of the National Hurricane Center