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Edouard Moving East and Weakening in the North Central Atlantic.
Number of days since last Hurricane Landfall in US: 76 (Arthur) , in Florida: 3251 (8 y 10 m) (Wilma)
39.9N 41.3W
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Pres: 980mb
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E at 16 mph
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Archives >> 2005 News Talkbacks

HanKFranK
User


Reged: Mon
Posts: 1841
Loc: Graniteville, SC
Delta... why not?
      Tue Nov 22 2005 02:26 PM

Have you ever watched one of those B-horror flicks where the monster/evil thing keeps getting supposedly done in, but returns a scene or two later no matter how dead it's supposed to be?

Don't you start wondering when the danged thing will just quit trying and wait until the sequel? Well, for those of you watching the 2005 hurricane season, you're probably starting to feel that way about how things are going.
Right now the system being tracked as invest 95L south of the Azores is, as the NHC puts it, 'acquring tropical characteristics'. The satellite analysis algorithms used by NRL and SSD think it's a sort of tropical cyclone, as NRL has it rated as a 40kt gale center with a 988mb central pressure... and SSD has it rated subtropical 2.5, or roughly a 35-40kt hybrid tropical cyclone. The 1:05 PM EST tropical discussion issued by the NHC notes it as a special feature 985mb low, as part of an occluded frontal system... the language says that it's acquiring tropical characteristics and could become a tropical storm at any time.

Last night Clark passed along that numerous global weather models are analyzing it as warm core. During the late season occasionally cut-off lows that occlude in the subtropics will go through the usual process that it's species of low does... after occlusion they will slowly acquire a warm core, and the convective processes that a tropical system usually needs will be sustained by the relative difference to their environment... even if the sea surface temperatures are running below that normal 27C/80F threshold usually considered necessary.
Forecast models take this low southward, stall it, and give it a variety of eccentric paths from there by the weekend as the big blocking high to the north (upstream of the deep trough currently in the Eastern U.S.) keeps it more or less in the middle of nowhere. Based on the current appearance it is quite likely that the NHC will upgrade the system to Subtropical or Tropical Storm Delta this evening... so if it follows one of the various forecast paths and lingers as projected, this system could be wandering around past Turkey Day.
Elsewhere there are a couple of convective complexes in the Caribbean.

Gamma's remnants have slid south along the coast of Nicaragua, while a small low pressure north of Panama is firing a little bit of convection. Upper winds are not supportive in the area.. but you guessed it.. may become favorable for development around the end of the week, if anything lingers. There's a small disturbance/wind shift line south of Puerto Rico, but conditions there are also generally unfavorable.
I've put up an early 2006 season forecast thread in the forum. It's just for fun... take your best shot at how active the coming hurricane season will be, based on what little we can tell about next year from here. In May we'll do an update where we can all make better stabs at it.

Alrighty, y'all have a good one.

HF 1926z22november


Edited by MikeC (Tue Nov 22 2005 02:55 PM)

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Entire topic
Subject Posted by Posted on
* Delta... why not? HanKFranK Tue Nov 22 2005 02:26 PM
. * * Re: Delta... why not? FloydRTurbo   Wed Nov 23 2005 10:31 PM
. * * Re: Delta... why not? UKCloudgazer   Thu Nov 24 2005 05:25 AM
. * * Re: Delta... why not? FloydRTurbo   Thu Nov 24 2005 12:10 PM
. * * Re: Delta... why not? vineyardsaker   Tue Nov 22 2005 08:11 PM
. * * Re: Delta... why not? Rich B   Tue Nov 22 2005 05:28 PM
. * * Re: Delta... why not? typhoon_tip   Tue Nov 22 2005 06:29 PM
. * * Re: Delta... why not? Margie   Tue Nov 22 2005 06:03 PM
. * * Re: Delta... why not? Clark   Tue Nov 22 2005 07:48 PM
. * * Re: Delta... why not? Old Sailor   Tue Nov 22 2005 07:58 PM
. * * Re: Delta... why not? Clark   Tue Nov 22 2005 08:54 PM
. * * Re: Delta... why not? Old Sailor   Tue Nov 22 2005 09:06 PM
. * * Re: Delta... why not? HanKFranK   Tue Nov 22 2005 09:31 PM
. * * Re: Delta... why not? Old Sailor   Tue Nov 22 2005 09:53 PM
. * * Re: Delta... why not? HanKFranK   Tue Nov 22 2005 11:51 PM
. * * Re: Delta... why not? Margie   Wed Nov 23 2005 12:24 AM
. * * Re: Delta... why not? Bloodstar   Wed Nov 23 2005 01:30 AM
. * * Re: Delta... why not? Clark   Wed Nov 23 2005 01:52 AM
. * * Re: Delta... why not? danielwAdministrator   Wed Nov 23 2005 02:20 AM
. * * Re: Delta... why not? Bloodstar   Wed Nov 23 2005 02:25 AM
. * * Re: Delta... why not? danielwAdministrator   Wed Nov 23 2005 02:32 AM
. * * Re: Delta... why not? dave foster   Wed Nov 23 2005 08:39 AM
. * * Re: Delta... why not? UKCloudgazer   Wed Nov 23 2005 10:39 AM
. * * Re: Delta... why not? dave foster   Wed Nov 23 2005 11:45 AM
. * * Re: Delta... why not? HanKFranK   Wed Nov 23 2005 12:12 PM
. * * Re: Delta... why not? Rabbit   Wed Nov 23 2005 01:57 PM
. * * Why is the NHC not naming this storm? vineyardsaker   Wed Nov 23 2005 02:59 PM
. * * Re: Why is the NHC not naming this storm? Margie   Wed Nov 23 2005 03:41 PM
. * * Re: Why is the NHC not naming this storm? Storm Hunter   Wed Nov 23 2005 03:24 PM
. * * Re: Why is the NHC not naming this storm? Lee-Delray   Wed Nov 23 2005 03:41 PM
. * * Re: Why is the NHC not naming this storm? Trekman   Wed Nov 23 2005 04:17 PM
. * * Re: Why is the NHC not naming this storm? typhoon_tip   Wed Nov 23 2005 04:22 PM
. * * Re: Why is the NHC not naming this storm? Rabbit   Wed Nov 23 2005 03:42 PM
. * * Re: Why is the NHC not naming this storm? HanKFranK   Wed Nov 23 2005 03:57 PM
. * * Re: Why is the NHC not naming this storm? *Killed -- Sent to Graveyard* La Nimo   Wed Nov 23 2005 04:23 PM
. * * Re: Why is the NHC not naming this storm? *Killed -- Sent to Graveyard* dave foster   Wed Nov 23 2005 04:39 PM
. * * Re: Why is the NHC not naming this storm? Random Chaos   Wed Nov 23 2005 05:16 PM
. * * Re: Why is the NHC not naming this storm? Margie   Wed Nov 23 2005 05:37 PM
. * * Re: Why is the NHC not naming this storm? Tak   Wed Nov 23 2005 05:48 PM
. * * Re: Why is the NHC not naming this storm? Tak   Wed Nov 23 2005 05:55 PM
. * * Re: Why is the NHC not naming this storm? tpratch   Wed Nov 23 2005 06:20 PM
. * * Re: Why is the NHC not naming this storm? GuppieGrouper   Wed Nov 23 2005 06:59 PM
. * * Interesting Note danielwAdministrator   Wed Nov 23 2005 07:46 PM
. * * hmmm.. HanKFranK   Wed Nov 23 2005 08:32 PM
. * * Re: hmmm.. LoisCane   Wed Nov 23 2005 09:45 PM
. * * Re: hmmm.. Margie   Wed Nov 23 2005 10:00 PM
. * * Delta Burke's direction..? ltpat228   Wed Nov 23 2005 10:19 PM
. * * Re: hmmm.. emackl   Wed Nov 23 2005 08:40 PM
. * * Re: hmmm.. NONAME   Wed Nov 23 2005 08:48 PM
. * * Re: hmmm.. dave foster   Wed Nov 23 2005 09:18 PM
. * * Re: Why is the NHC not naming this storm? UKCloudgazer   Wed Nov 23 2005 05:48 PM
. * * Re: Why is the NHC not naming this storm? Rabbit   Wed Nov 23 2005 05:06 PM
. * * Re: Why is the NHC not naming this storm? typhoon_tip   Wed Nov 23 2005 04:18 PM
. * * Re: Why is the NHC not naming this storm? Margie   Wed Nov 23 2005 04:04 PM
. * * Re: Delta... why not? ltpat228   Wed Nov 23 2005 08:46 AM
. * * Re: Delta... why not? Lee-Delray   Wed Nov 23 2005 10:48 AM
. * * Re: Delta... why not? ltpat228   Wed Nov 23 2005 11:34 AM
. * * Re: Delta... why not? Rabbit   Wed Nov 23 2005 11:22 AM
. * * Re: Delta... why not? dave foster   Wed Nov 23 2005 11:49 AM
. * * Re: Delta... why not? damejune2   Wed Nov 23 2005 10:24 AM
. * * Re: Delta... why not? Lee-Delray   Wed Nov 23 2005 08:54 AM
. * * December Doombot!   Wed Nov 23 2005 03:30 AM
. * * Re: Delta... why not? danielwAdministrator   Wed Nov 23 2005 01:21 AM
. * * Re: Delta... why not? HanKFranK   Tue Nov 22 2005 09:04 PM
. * * Re: Delta... why not? Bloodstar   Tue Nov 22 2005 07:05 PM
. * * Re: Delta... why not? Rabbit   Tue Nov 22 2005 03:46 PM
. * * Re: Delta... why not? Rich B   Tue Nov 22 2005 04:20 PM
. * * Re: Delta... why not? ltpat228   Tue Nov 22 2005 04:37 PM
. * * Re: Delta... why not? Rich B   Tue Nov 22 2005 02:37 PM

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