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Archives 2000s >> 2005 News Talkbacks

typhoon_tip
Meteorologist


Reged: Wed
Posts: 573
Re: Delta... why not?
      Tue Nov 22 2005 06:29 PM

Quote:

Well the 530PM TWO is out, and it looks like we dont have Delta... just yet. I would guess that NHC are waiting for the system to generate persistent and deep convection. It has been generating convection during today, but most of this has been relatively shallow. Recent IR imagery would suggest that this may be changing though, with an area of intense cold topped convection having formed to the immediate west of the centre, and now wrapping around the southern and eastern quadrants. If this continues then it has a decent shot. I would also imagine that NHC are waiting for it to break free totally from the frontal system to its northeast. Given how it is moving away from the front, and the continually improving convective patterns, we could see this upgraded within the next 6 to 12 hours.

Regards




..Whether HPC has pulled the trigger on this at 5pm or not, I believe the after thought of most tropical Mets is that it has already acquired sub-tropical characteristics - check that, IS a nameable system at this time. Not sure with the overwhelming signal we are getting from heat channels what the hold up is, but I suspect it may have something to do with the actual meteorology of what is going on out there... I'll eat crow if wrong, but I suspect this is an internal policy decision because of certain meteorological observations that need to be atoned for; they will soon enough! (*I cast no aspersion at HPC for any policies they have and frankly believe they are completely necessary for a few reasons I won't broach here..)

For example, we do still see a tendency for a subtended baroclinic field between the remnant mid-lvl trough N, and the system its self, W of 30 longitude. However, there are no current large scale synoptic suggestions/reasonings that connote "Delta" will effectively be re-captured by the westerlies therein. Normally, when observing a tropical system so close to a baroclinically forced sfc trough you immediately think "..Oh, NNE motion along/ahead of that boundary.." - Nope, not this time.

I'm sure you are much agreed with this stuff already...But, in fact, quite the opposite as the continued separation from said attenuating trough is certain and already underway... This "monster" (for you HF ) is taking on more independent structure in tandem with that trough N losing its own present in the N Atlantic... It is filling and will be totally gone from the regions along 30W soon as the exertion of the -NA0 is coming into prominence. The -NAO will provide for a nice deep layer ridging there much sooner over later. This will effect/incur a S drift to "Delta", as HF has been intimating and follows quite logically...

Lastly, it is intriguing that in the -NAO phase we typically do see the amplification of the Azore's Low... I find it interesting that the counter part variant for this particular NAO seem to be an evolving tropical phenomenon... You have to find that awesome?

--...bold and or highlighted meteorology reference-able sections are for the general reader... I should also add a caveat that the SSTs are a slightly less that 26C....so we are certainly not talking explosive development!
TT

Edited by typhoon_tip (Tue Nov 22 2005 06:33 PM)

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Entire topic
Subject Posted by Posted on
* Delta... why not? HanKFranK Tue Nov 22 2005 06:29 PM
. * * Re: Delta... why not? FloydRTurbo   Wed Nov 23 2005 10:31 PM
. * * Re: Delta... why not? UKCloudgazer   Thu Nov 24 2005 05:25 AM
. * * Re: Delta... why not? FloydRTurbo   Thu Nov 24 2005 12:10 PM
. * * Re: Delta... why not? vineyardsaker   Tue Nov 22 2005 08:11 PM
. * * Re: Delta... why not? Rich B   Tue Nov 22 2005 05:28 PM
. * * Re: Delta... why not? typhoon_tip   Tue Nov 22 2005 06:29 PM
. * * Re: Delta... why not? Margie   Tue Nov 22 2005 06:03 PM
. * * Re: Delta... why not? Clark   Tue Nov 22 2005 07:48 PM
. * * Re: Delta... why not? Old Sailor   Tue Nov 22 2005 07:58 PM
. * * Re: Delta... why not? Clark   Tue Nov 22 2005 08:54 PM
. * * Re: Delta... why not? Old Sailor   Tue Nov 22 2005 09:06 PM
. * * Re: Delta... why not? HanKFranK   Tue Nov 22 2005 09:31 PM
. * * Re: Delta... why not? Old Sailor   Tue Nov 22 2005 09:53 PM
. * * Re: Delta... why not? HanKFranK   Tue Nov 22 2005 11:51 PM
. * * Re: Delta... why not? Margie   Wed Nov 23 2005 12:24 AM
. * * Re: Delta... why not? Bloodstar   Wed Nov 23 2005 01:30 AM
. * * Re: Delta... why not? Clark   Wed Nov 23 2005 01:52 AM
. * * Re: Delta... why not? danielwAdministrator   Wed Nov 23 2005 02:20 AM
. * * Re: Delta... why not? Bloodstar   Wed Nov 23 2005 02:25 AM
. * * Re: Delta... why not? danielwAdministrator   Wed Nov 23 2005 02:32 AM
. * * Re: Delta... why not? dave foster   Wed Nov 23 2005 08:39 AM
. * * Re: Delta... why not? UKCloudgazer   Wed Nov 23 2005 10:39 AM
. * * Re: Delta... why not? dave foster   Wed Nov 23 2005 11:45 AM
. * * Re: Delta... why not? HanKFranK   Wed Nov 23 2005 12:12 PM
. * * Re: Delta... why not? Rabbit   Wed Nov 23 2005 01:57 PM
. * * Why is the NHC not naming this storm? vineyardsaker   Wed Nov 23 2005 02:59 PM
. * * Re: Why is the NHC not naming this storm? Margie   Wed Nov 23 2005 03:41 PM
. * * Re: Why is the NHC not naming this storm? Storm Hunter   Wed Nov 23 2005 03:24 PM
. * * Re: Why is the NHC not naming this storm? Lee-Delray   Wed Nov 23 2005 03:41 PM
. * * Re: Why is the NHC not naming this storm? Trekman   Wed Nov 23 2005 04:17 PM
. * * Re: Why is the NHC not naming this storm? typhoon_tip   Wed Nov 23 2005 04:22 PM
. * * Re: Why is the NHC not naming this storm? Rabbit   Wed Nov 23 2005 03:42 PM
. * * Re: Why is the NHC not naming this storm? HanKFranK   Wed Nov 23 2005 03:57 PM
. * * Re: Why is the NHC not naming this storm? *Killed -- Sent to Graveyard* La Nimo   Wed Nov 23 2005 04:23 PM
. * * Re: Why is the NHC not naming this storm? *Killed -- Sent to Graveyard* dave foster   Wed Nov 23 2005 04:39 PM
. * * Re: Why is the NHC not naming this storm? Random Chaos   Wed Nov 23 2005 05:16 PM
. * * Re: Why is the NHC not naming this storm? Margie   Wed Nov 23 2005 05:37 PM
. * * Re: Why is the NHC not naming this storm? Tak   Wed Nov 23 2005 05:48 PM
. * * Re: Why is the NHC not naming this storm? Tak   Wed Nov 23 2005 05:55 PM
. * * Re: Why is the NHC not naming this storm? tpratch   Wed Nov 23 2005 06:20 PM
. * * Re: Why is the NHC not naming this storm? GuppieGrouper   Wed Nov 23 2005 06:59 PM
. * * Interesting Note danielwAdministrator   Wed Nov 23 2005 07:46 PM
. * * hmmm.. HanKFranK   Wed Nov 23 2005 08:32 PM
. * * Re: hmmm.. LoisCane   Wed Nov 23 2005 09:45 PM
. * * Re: hmmm.. Margie   Wed Nov 23 2005 10:00 PM
. * * Delta Burke's direction..? ltpat228   Wed Nov 23 2005 10:19 PM
. * * Re: hmmm.. emackl   Wed Nov 23 2005 08:40 PM
. * * Re: hmmm.. NONAME   Wed Nov 23 2005 08:48 PM
. * * Re: hmmm.. dave foster   Wed Nov 23 2005 09:18 PM
. * * Re: Why is the NHC not naming this storm? UKCloudgazer   Wed Nov 23 2005 05:48 PM
. * * Re: Why is the NHC not naming this storm? Rabbit   Wed Nov 23 2005 05:06 PM
. * * Re: Why is the NHC not naming this storm? typhoon_tip   Wed Nov 23 2005 04:18 PM
. * * Re: Why is the NHC not naming this storm? Margie   Wed Nov 23 2005 04:04 PM
. * * Re: Delta... why not? ltpat228   Wed Nov 23 2005 08:46 AM
. * * Re: Delta... why not? Lee-Delray   Wed Nov 23 2005 10:48 AM
. * * Re: Delta... why not? ltpat228   Wed Nov 23 2005 11:34 AM
. * * Re: Delta... why not? Rabbit   Wed Nov 23 2005 11:22 AM
. * * Re: Delta... why not? dave foster   Wed Nov 23 2005 11:49 AM
. * * Re: Delta... why not? damejune2   Wed Nov 23 2005 10:24 AM
. * * Re: Delta... why not? Lee-Delray   Wed Nov 23 2005 08:54 AM
. * * December Doombot!   Wed Nov 23 2005 03:30 AM
. * * Re: Delta... why not? danielwAdministrator   Wed Nov 23 2005 01:21 AM
. * * Re: Delta... why not? HanKFranK   Tue Nov 22 2005 09:04 PM
. * * Re: Delta... why not? Bloodstar   Tue Nov 22 2005 07:05 PM
. * * Re: Delta... why not? Rabbit   Tue Nov 22 2005 03:46 PM
. * * Re: Delta... why not? Rich B   Tue Nov 22 2005 04:20 PM
. * * Re: Delta... why not? ltpat228   Tue Nov 22 2005 04:37 PM
. * * Re: Delta... why not? Rich B   Tue Nov 22 2005 02:37 PM

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