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Archives 2000s >> 2005 Storm Forum

Margie
Senior Storm Chaser


Reged: Fri
Posts: 1191
Loc: Twin Cities
Re: 2006
      Fri Dec 02 2005 12:04 AM

I have no technical expertise in this area so I looked only at historical statistics. I looked at all the years and first, based on years with high numbers and with similar tracks (although there is never going to be a terribly close match) I focused on 1887-1888, 1933-34, and 1969-70. 1995-1996 was not a good fit. Then I factored in a little higher activity because of 2003-2004 statistics. Also looked at how quickly the stats tend to fall off after peak years.

I came up with initial ranges of 14-16 / 7-8 / 2-4 and an ACE of 160-175, and 3-4 GOM landfalls.

I'm still working on figuring a way to narrow that down.

* * * * * *

OK this is what I came up with.

15 / 8 / 3

ACE of 165

Now I thought this was very interesting: When you go back and look at Dr Gray's forecast, at the beg of Dec 2004 he forecast a normal year: only 11/6/3. In April he updated that to 13/7/3, and in May to 15/8/4.

From looking at the data, apparently 2005 is the very first time there was a third year in a row with ACE values above normal (75-117). The records are only a little over a hundred years old so we may be looking at more like a 500-year cycle, or overall global warming may be kicking the ACE stats up a bit. There were pairs of years with high ACE values well before this past decade, so it still does not definitely follow that something out of the ordinary is occuring. However if we do have a 4th year with a high ACE value as I think, it will definitely be considered unusual. So my ACE prediction could be way too high for what should be expected next year.

The reason I picked the three storm numbers that I did, is because I looked at the dropoffs from similar years and went down about the same percentage. But I didn't spend enough time on the pattern of the tracks each season and this weekend am going to go back and try to find good matches on the tracks, for years that did not have a high number of storms, and may make some changes based on that, before Monday.

So, because my guess is based on statistical patterns from previous years, which are set, I won't change it as the year progresses, based on other factors, because I didn't take those factors into account in the first place. And I don't think it is sporting to change the numbers once the season starts.

--------------------
Katrina's Surge: http://www.wunderground.com/hurricane/Katrinas_surge_contents.asp

Edited by Margie (Fri Dec 02 2005 10:29 PM)

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Entire topic
Subject Posted by Posted on
* 2006 HanKFranK Fri Dec 02 2005 12:04 AM
. * * Re: 2006 EwanM   Mon Dec 05 2005 02:09 PM
. * * Re: 2006 Margie   Fri Dec 02 2005 12:04 AM
. * * Re: 2006 Margie   Sat Dec 03 2005 11:05 AM
. * * Re: 2006 firestar_1   Thu Dec 01 2005 02:01 PM
. * * Re: 2006 swimaway19   Wed Nov 30 2005 08:00 PM
. * * Re: 2006 Bloodstar   Tue Nov 29 2005 04:50 AM
. * * Re: 2006 Lee-Delray   Tue Nov 22 2005 03:08 PM
. * * leadoff HanKFranK   Mon Nov 21 2005 10:13 PM
. * * Re: leadoff Tak   Tue Nov 29 2005 06:03 PM
. * * Re: leadoff NewWatcher   Mon Dec 05 2005 03:13 PM
. * * graycast HanKFranK   Mon Dec 05 2005 11:04 PM
. * * Re: graycast Margie   Tue Dec 06 2005 01:00 AM
. * * Re: graycast bobbutts   Tue Dec 06 2005 08:13 AM
. * * Re: graycast B.C.Francis   Tue Dec 06 2005 09:19 AM
. * * Re: graycast Beginner   Wed Dec 21 2005 12:52 PM
. * * Re: graycast Random Chaos   Wed Dec 28 2005 09:00 AM
. * * Re: graycast Margie   Tue Dec 06 2005 11:00 AM
. * * Re: graycast Tak   Tue Dec 06 2005 06:07 PM
. * * Re: graycast Margie   Mon Dec 12 2005 01:03 AM
. * * Re: leadoff UKCloudgazer   Wed Nov 23 2005 07:29 PM
. * * Re: leadoff Enrique   Wed Nov 23 2005 08:59 PM
. * * Re: leadoff Hurricane Fredrick 1979   Wed Nov 23 2005 10:34 PM
. * * 2006 AgnesOfHell   Mon Nov 28 2005 01:52 PM
. * * Re: leadoff Clark   Tue Nov 22 2005 03:35 PM
. * * 2006 leadoff rmbjoe1954   Tue Nov 22 2005 03:47 PM
. * * Re: 2006 leadoff NONAME   Tue Nov 22 2005 09:15 PM
. * * Re: 2006 leadoff Cycloneye11   Wed Nov 23 2005 08:40 AM
. * * Piece of Cake - Almost Ed DunhamAdministrator   Mon Nov 21 2005 11:20 PM
. * * Re: Piece of Cake - Almost CaneTrackerInSoFl   Tue Nov 22 2005 10:42 AM

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