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Archives 2000s >> 2005 Storm Forum

Margie
Senior Storm Chaser


Reged: Fri
Posts: 1191
Loc: Twin Cities
Re: 2006
      Sat Dec 03 2005 11:05 AM

Not sure where to post this...but looking at the ACE numbers again, between 1851 and 1994 there were nine years with an ACE higher than 175...and since 1995 we've had six years with an ACE higher than 175.

And if you add up all of the ACE energy beyond the top of the 'near normal' range (117), it turns out that the above-normal ACE for the past 11 years (1995-2005 inclusive) is almost exactly half of the above-normal ACE for the previous 143 years totaled (about 1200 vs 560), which is a time period 13 times longer.

neat figure, but it's like comparing apples and oranges. that's mostly an artifact of improved detection. years like 1886 and 1933 may have exceeded this one, but we didn't have satellites to find the lees and brets and epsilons. it's extremely likely that a lot of storms in the historic record have escaped detection. but anyhow, if you wish to beat dr. klotzbach's forecast. believe it's coming out tomorrow... CORRECTION, coming out tuesday, dec 6 -HF

Well sure, but there were still a lot of ships in the ocean, and not that much could have been missed, especially big storms, that would render previous ACE values useless for purposes of comparison for this large a discrepancy. The weaker tropical cyclones that were surely missed wouldn't have impacted the ACE number so much.

you'll notice that in a lot of years there are no major hurricanes, or just one.. and the tracks don't have realistic intensity trends for the stronger stroms. believe me, comparing the ntc data of 1872 and 2002 like they're the same thing is a mistake. -HF

Edited by HanKFranK (Mon Dec 05 2005 10:56 PM)

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Entire topic
Subject Posted by Posted on
* 2006 HanKFranK Sat Dec 03 2005 11:05 AM
. * * Re: 2006 EwanM   Mon Dec 05 2005 02:09 PM
. * * Re: 2006 Margie   Fri Dec 02 2005 12:04 AM
. * * Re: 2006 Margie   Sat Dec 03 2005 11:05 AM
. * * Re: 2006 firestar_1   Thu Dec 01 2005 02:01 PM
. * * Re: 2006 swimaway19   Wed Nov 30 2005 08:00 PM
. * * Re: 2006 Bloodstar   Tue Nov 29 2005 04:50 AM
. * * Re: 2006 Lee-Delray   Tue Nov 22 2005 03:08 PM
. * * leadoff HanKFranK   Mon Nov 21 2005 10:13 PM
. * * Re: leadoff Tak   Tue Nov 29 2005 06:03 PM
. * * Re: leadoff NewWatcher   Mon Dec 05 2005 03:13 PM
. * * graycast HanKFranK   Mon Dec 05 2005 11:04 PM
. * * Re: graycast Margie   Tue Dec 06 2005 01:00 AM
. * * Re: graycast bobbutts   Tue Dec 06 2005 08:13 AM
. * * Re: graycast B.C.Francis   Tue Dec 06 2005 09:19 AM
. * * Re: graycast Beginner   Wed Dec 21 2005 12:52 PM
. * * Re: graycast Random Chaos   Wed Dec 28 2005 09:00 AM
. * * Re: graycast Margie   Tue Dec 06 2005 11:00 AM
. * * Re: graycast Tak   Tue Dec 06 2005 06:07 PM
. * * Re: graycast Margie   Mon Dec 12 2005 01:03 AM
. * * Re: leadoff UKCloudgazer   Wed Nov 23 2005 07:29 PM
. * * Re: leadoff Enrique   Wed Nov 23 2005 08:59 PM
. * * Re: leadoff Hurricane Fredrick 1979   Wed Nov 23 2005 10:34 PM
. * * 2006 AgnesOfHell   Mon Nov 28 2005 01:52 PM
. * * Re: leadoff Clark   Tue Nov 22 2005 03:35 PM
. * * 2006 leadoff rmbjoe1954   Tue Nov 22 2005 03:47 PM
. * * Re: 2006 leadoff NONAME   Tue Nov 22 2005 09:15 PM
. * * Re: 2006 leadoff Cycloneye11   Wed Nov 23 2005 08:40 AM
. * * Piece of Cake - Almost Ed DunhamAdministrator   Mon Nov 21 2005 11:20 PM
. * * Re: Piece of Cake - Almost CaneTrackerInSoFl   Tue Nov 22 2005 10:42 AM

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