Quote: the hurricane's convective tops are low enough that fast winds above say 300 mb aren't hurting it a whole lot.
This is along the lines of what I've been wondering as well, and I've been looking at the CIMSS upper level winds product the last couple days and comparing that to Epsilon and it is rarely being affected by the shear at the high levels. Last night I noticed again on sat that the shear could be seen just to the north of it at the end of the comma of circulation but not directly over it, and then again just at the southern edge of the circulation. I am not seeing 30 kts of shear affecting Epsilon, and when it was under 20 kts of shear, you could not see that effecting it either. However this morning I am seeing some shear. On the CIMSS upper level winds product, which I am not sure exactly how to read, it appears that the higher winds are over top the TC now, and that strong winds from the 351-500mb range, which maybe could affect it more, if the convection is shallow, are always just to the south of it.
But this info I didn't know:
Quote: and the tropospheric heights are generally lower than would be in the summer
So maybe that is how it can make sense from an atmospheric point of view, and, if not, then perhaps it really does have some strong outflow that is managing somehow to deflect the shear.
I'm surprised they didn't adjust the floater last night. They've just moved it.
And you know what's funyy...after consistently going south of the forecast points for like six forecasts in a row, now that they've adjusted southward, it's heading due east again.
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