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Azores #96L fails to complete transition into a Sub-Tropical Storm. Elsewhere, weak low pressure in Caribbean may linger into next week.
Days since last H. Landfall - US: Any 44 (Nate) , Major: 62 (Maria) Florida - Any: 72 (Irma) Major: 72 (Irma)
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Archives >> 2005 Storm Forum

Margie
Senior Storm Chaser


Reged: Fri
Posts: 1191
Loc: Twin Cities
Re: graycast
      Tue Dec 06 2005 11:00 AM

More on the Graycast (more like 'overcast' it's so gloom and doom!); this is from Jeff Master's Wunderground blog this morning, and I found this summary of the factors taken into account in the forecast very helpful (for newbies like me):

"The CSU team uses observations of monthly average atmospheric winds and pressures over six specific regions of the globe taken this Fall to determine whether favorable or unfavorable conditions will exist for the 2006 hurricane season. All six of these "predictors" are favorable for an active 2006 hurricane season. A condensed summary:

"1) El Niņo, which acts to suppress Atlantic hurricane activity, is not expected to be active during the 2006 hurricane season. It is more likely that neutral or even La Niņa conditions will develop, which are favorable for Atlantic hurricane activity.

"2) The stratospheric quasi-biennial oscillation (QBO), an oscillation in the stratosphere that creates alternating westerly and easterly winds there, is expected to be in it west phase during the hurricane season of 2006. The west phase of the QBO has been shown to provide favorable conditions for development of tropical cyclones in the deep tropics.

"3) The observed pressure and wind patterns over the North Atlantic will allow stronger than normal southerly winds to keep sea surface temperatures over the entire North Atlantic well above normal during 2006. Sea surface temperatures during 2005 were the highest measured since at least 1950, and helped fuel 2005's record-breaking intense hurricanes. Sea surface temperatures during the 2006 hurricane season may be just as warm.

"4) Perhaps most importantly, observed wind and pressure patterns this Fall indicate that upper-level winds in the upper atmosphere (200 mb) will blow from the east during the hurricane season of 2006, like they did during 2005. This results in low wind shear over hurricane formation regions of the tropical Atlantic. Low wind shear is the key ingredient needed for tropical storm formation and intensification.

Jeff Masters"

margie, for large excerpts like this you should just put a link... unless you have a bunch of specific comments related to the text. -HF

Edited by HanKFranK (Tue Dec 06 2005 10:15 PM)

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Entire topic
Subject Posted by Posted on
* 2006 HanKFranK Tue Dec 06 2005 11:00 AM
. * * Re: 2006 EwanM   Mon Dec 05 2005 02:09 PM
. * * Re: 2006 Margie   Fri Dec 02 2005 12:04 AM
. * * Re: 2006 Margie   Sat Dec 03 2005 11:05 AM
. * * Re: 2006 firestar_1   Thu Dec 01 2005 02:01 PM
. * * Re: 2006 swimaway19   Wed Nov 30 2005 08:00 PM
. * * Re: 2006 Bloodstar   Tue Nov 29 2005 04:50 AM
. * * Re: 2006 Lee-Delray   Tue Nov 22 2005 03:08 PM
. * * leadoff HanKFranK   Mon Nov 21 2005 10:13 PM
. * * Re: leadoff Tak   Tue Nov 29 2005 06:03 PM
. * * Re: leadoff NewWatcher   Mon Dec 05 2005 03:13 PM
. * * graycast HanKFranK   Mon Dec 05 2005 11:04 PM
. * * Re: graycast Margie   Tue Dec 06 2005 01:00 AM
. * * Re: graycast bobbutts   Tue Dec 06 2005 08:13 AM
. * * Re: graycast B.C.Francis   Tue Dec 06 2005 09:19 AM
. * * Re: graycast Beginner   Wed Dec 21 2005 12:52 PM
. * * Re: graycast Random Chaos   Wed Dec 28 2005 09:00 AM
. * * Re: graycast Margie   Tue Dec 06 2005 11:00 AM
. * * Re: graycast Tak   Tue Dec 06 2005 06:07 PM
. * * Re: graycast Margie   Mon Dec 12 2005 01:03 AM
. * * Re: leadoff UKCloudgazer   Wed Nov 23 2005 07:29 PM
. * * Re: leadoff Enrique   Wed Nov 23 2005 08:59 PM
. * * Re: leadoff Hurricane Fredrick 1979   Wed Nov 23 2005 10:34 PM
. * * 2006 AgnesOfHell   Mon Nov 28 2005 01:52 PM
. * * Re: leadoff Clark   Tue Nov 22 2005 03:35 PM
. * * 2006 leadoff rmbjoe1954   Tue Nov 22 2005 03:47 PM
. * * Re: 2006 leadoff NONAME   Tue Nov 22 2005 09:15 PM
. * * Re: 2006 leadoff Cycloneye11   Wed Nov 23 2005 08:40 AM
. * * Piece of Cake - Almost Ed DunhamAdministrator   Mon Nov 21 2005 11:20 PM
. * * Re: Piece of Cake - Almost CaneTrackerInSoFl   Tue Nov 22 2005 10:42 AM

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