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Archives >> 2005 News Talkbacks

HanKFranK
User


Reged: Mon
Posts: 1841
Loc: Graniteville, SC
...going....
      Wed Dec 07 2005 04:47 PM

maybe the nhc is dog-tired of tracking storms and felt like giving the backup boys a whirl. hpc did the 21z discussion.... and i'm thinking they erred just a little high.
the storm's symmetry and convection has deteriorated to a point not seen since its inception in late november... it's obviously starting to come apart now (finally). if it was my job (which it never will be) to tag an intensity i would have gone with 60kt... just under the 65kt it's been getting for the last 24hr or so with a much better signature. i mean... the forecaster admitted that the t-numbers were concentrated just below 4.0... and yeah i know this goes against the logic i have that t-numbers underrate hybrid systems... but that is more of a problem when they're in formative phases, not so much when they're winding down. the semicircle of the storm northwest of the eye is peeling off, the eye structure has elongated and essentially closed. from here the surface center will start trailing the convective burst which should keep stuck on the southeastern side... probably dragging the core of the storm on an eastward-bending path as shown in the official.

later on... probably late tomorrow or early friday... the center ought to decouple and slow to a crawl as shown in the official. when things start going bad for a late season hurricane they can fold up pretty quickly.... this one ought to be done some time friday, i'm thinking. remnant low should still be apparent through about early sunday. i don't buy the gfdl baroclinic-regeneration scenario.... think we're done in about 48.

now, as for the next cut-off low shown out there early next week.. no real change there either. it's persisting in the models that like it, but there isn't a uniform picture of its existence or longevity yet. i'm not biting yet.

HF 2147z07december (PH 64)

Edited by HanKFranK (Wed Dec 07 2005 08:58 PM)

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Entire topic
Subject Posted by Posted on
* Hurricane Epsilon Forms in Central Atlantic MikeCAdministrator Wed Dec 07 2005 04:47 PM
. * * Couple of random notes... Clark   Mon Dec 19 2005 05:52 PM
. * * Re: Couple of random notes... Margie   Tue Dec 20 2005 06:16 PM
. * * Re: Couple of random notes... Clark   Tue Dec 20 2005 09:48 PM
. * * katrina report HanKFranK   Thu Dec 22 2005 10:56 AM
. * * Re: katrina report Margie   Fri Dec 23 2005 10:16 AM
. * * Re: Couple of random notes... Cycloneye11   Tue Dec 20 2005 06:57 PM
. * * Re: Hurricane Epsilon Forms in Central Atlantic swimaway19   Thu Dec 08 2005 09:12 PM
. * * Epsilon Doombot!   Sat Dec 03 2005 03:23 AM
. * * make it stop.... HanKFranK   Sat Dec 03 2005 04:30 PM
. * * Run away! Run away! Margie   Sat Dec 03 2005 07:58 PM
. * * Epsilon Endures Ed DunhamAdministrator   Sat Dec 03 2005 10:31 PM
. * * Re: Epsilon Endures Tak   Sun Dec 04 2005 07:25 AM
. * * Re: Epsilon Endures Random Chaos   Sun Dec 04 2005 09:39 AM
. * * Re: Hangin Tough Epsilon..the little storm that could! MapMaster   Sun Dec 04 2005 10:08 AM
. * * Re: Hangin Tough Epsilon..the little storm that could! Hugh   Sun Dec 04 2005 11:01 AM
. * * Re: Hangin Tough Epsilon..the little storm that could! Fuzzy   Sun Dec 04 2005 10:15 AM
. * * You gotta love those NHC TPC discussions! Margie   Sun Dec 04 2005 01:40 PM
. * * Re: You gotta love those NHC TPC discussions! Random Chaos   Sun Dec 04 2005 01:53 PM
. * * Re: You gotta love those NHC TPC discussions! Margie   Sun Dec 04 2005 01:58 PM
. * * Re: You gotta love those NHC TPC discussions! HanKFranK   Sun Dec 04 2005 02:48 PM
. * * Here we go again Margie   Mon Dec 05 2005 02:20 AM
. * * Re: Here we go again Doombot!   Mon Dec 05 2005 02:46 AM
. * * Re: Here we go again UKCloudgazer   Mon Dec 05 2005 03:08 AM
. * * Re: Here we go again Bloodstar   Mon Dec 05 2005 04:11 AM
. * * AM note HanKFranK   Mon Dec 05 2005 07:16 AM
. * * Re: AM note Bloodstar   Mon Dec 05 2005 05:47 PM
. * * Useful information... typhoon_tip   Mon Dec 05 2005 11:48 PM
. * * Re: Useful information... doug   Tue Dec 06 2005 11:48 AM
. * * Re: Useful information... Bloodstar   Tue Dec 06 2005 04:36 AM
. * * the latest on Epsilon Margie   Tue Dec 06 2005 08:35 AM
. * * Re: the latest on Epsilon HanKFranK   Tue Dec 06 2005 09:23 AM
. * * Re: the latest on Epsilon Random Chaos   Tue Dec 06 2005 11:10 AM
. * * Re: the latest on Epsilon Clark   Tue Dec 06 2005 12:17 PM
. * * Re: the latest on Epsilon Margie   Tue Dec 06 2005 06:00 PM
. * * Re: the latest on Epsilon CaneTrackerInSoFl   Tue Dec 06 2005 09:49 PM
. * * Epsilon's future Clark   Tue Dec 06 2005 10:10 PM
. * * Re: Epsilon's future Margie   Tue Dec 06 2005 11:41 PM
. * * Epsilon, Zeta or nothing? Doombot!   Wed Dec 07 2005 02:43 AM
. * * Re: Epsilon, Zeta or nothing? Random Chaos   Wed Dec 07 2005 08:02 AM
. * * Re: Epsilon, Zeta or nothing? Margie   Wed Dec 07 2005 01:19 PM
. * * Re: Ep's Epitaph..Part I? MapMaster   Wed Dec 07 2005 01:43 PM
. * * Re: Ep's Epitaph..Part I? Clark   Wed Dec 07 2005 03:45 PM
. * * Re: Ep's Epitaph..Part I? MapMaster   Wed Dec 07 2005 04:15 PM
. * * ...going.... HanKFranK   Wed Dec 07 2005 04:47 PM
. * * Re: ...going.... Margie   Wed Dec 07 2005 04:57 PM
. * * oddball watch HanKFranK   Thu Dec 08 2005 01:04 AM
. * * Re: oddball watch Clark   Thu Dec 08 2005 10:51 AM
. * * Re: oddball watch Clark   Thu Dec 08 2005 09:25 PM
. * * Watching Oddballs *DELETED* ltpat228   Fri Dec 09 2005 06:12 PM
. * * Re: Watching Oddballs HanKFranK   Fri Dec 09 2005 11:37 PM
. * * Re: Watching Oddballs Clark   Sat Dec 10 2005 09:50 PM
. * * Re: Watching Oddballs HanKFranK   Sun Dec 11 2005 04:22 PM
. * * Re: Watching Oddballs danielwAdministrator   Sun Dec 11 2005 08:11 PM
. * * Re: Watching Oddballs Clark   Sun Dec 11 2005 10:11 PM
. * * Re: Watching Oddballs Margie   Mon Dec 12 2005 11:48 AM
. * * Re: Here we go? MapMaster   Mon Dec 12 2005 06:27 PM
. * * Re: Here we go? Clark   Mon Dec 12 2005 06:55 PM
. * * Re: Here we go? Margie   Tue Dec 13 2005 09:54 AM
. * * Re: Here we go? HanKFranK   Tue Dec 13 2005 11:05 AM
. * * Re: Here we go? Clark   Tue Dec 13 2005 11:34 AM
. * * Re: Here we go? HanKFranK   Thu Dec 15 2005 08:08 PM
. * * Re: Here we go? Lee-Delray   Fri Dec 16 2005 07:45 AM
. * * Re: Watching Oddballs Doombot!   Mon Dec 12 2005 01:17 AM
. * * Early Morning Watch danielwAdministrator   Thu Dec 08 2005 04:58 AM
. * * Re: Early Morning Watch Thunderbird12   Thu Dec 08 2005 10:24 AM
. * * Re: Ep's Epitaph..Part I? In our dreams?... Margie   Wed Dec 07 2005 02:46 PM
. * * Re: Epsilon, Zeta or nothing? Lee-Delray   Wed Dec 07 2005 08:12 AM
. * * Re: Epsilon, Zeta or nothing? ltpat228   Wed Dec 07 2005 09:50 AM
. * * Re: Epsilon, Zeta or nothing? HanKFranK   Wed Dec 07 2005 03:36 AM
. * * Re: Epsilon's future UKCloudgazer   Wed Dec 07 2005 02:40 AM
. * * Re: the latest on Epsilon Hootowl   Tue Dec 06 2005 11:52 AM
. * * Re: AM note Clark   Mon Dec 05 2005 09:57 AM
. * * Re: AM note Margie   Mon Dec 05 2005 04:30 PM
. * * Re: AM note Margie   Mon Dec 05 2005 09:12 AM
. * * Re: Tropical Storm Epsilon Forms in Central Atlantic Lee-Delray   Wed Nov 30 2005 07:29 AM
. * * Re: Tropical Storm Epsilon Forms in Central Atlantic Domino   Wed Nov 30 2005 05:27 AM
. * * Re: Tropical Storm Epsilon Forms in Central Atlantic ltpat228   Wed Nov 30 2005 09:47 AM
. * * A Reminder Ed DunhamAdministrator   Tue Nov 29 2005 09:46 PM
. * * Re: A Reminder Margie   Wed Nov 30 2005 10:34 AM
. * * Re: A Reminder Margie   Wed Nov 30 2005 02:37 PM
. * * Re: A Reminder Clark   Wed Nov 30 2005 04:22 PM
. * * Re: A Reminder Margie   Wed Nov 30 2005 06:17 PM
. * * epsilon lookin' good HanKFranK   Wed Nov 30 2005 06:24 PM
. * * Re: epsilon lookin' good Margie   Wed Nov 30 2005 08:17 PM
. * * Re: epsilon lookin' good Colleen A.   Wed Nov 30 2005 11:56 PM
. * * Re: epsilon lookin' good Margie   Thu Dec 01 2005 12:16 PM
. * * Re: A Reminder Tropics Guy   Wed Nov 30 2005 02:45 PM
. * * Re: Dr. Gs forecast MapMaster   Wed Nov 30 2005 03:51 PM
. * * Re: Dr. Gs forecast Lee-Delray   Wed Nov 30 2005 04:34 PM
. * * Re: Dr. Gs forecast Colleen A.   Thu Dec 01 2005 12:00 AM
. * * Re: Dr. Gs forecast doug   Thu Dec 01 2005 01:10 PM
. * * Re: Dr. Gs forecast Lee-Delray   Thu Dec 01 2005 01:54 PM
. * * Re: Circulation MapMaster   Thu Dec 01 2005 06:06 PM
. * * Re: Circulation Margie   Thu Dec 01 2005 09:17 PM
. * * Re: Circulation Margie   Fri Dec 02 2005 10:27 AM
. * * Re: Circulation Lee-Delray   Fri Dec 02 2005 10:40 AM
. * * record keeping HanKFranK   Fri Dec 02 2005 12:41 PM
. * * Re: record keeping Clark   Fri Dec 02 2005 05:05 PM
. * * Re: EastPac??????? MapMaster   Fri Dec 02 2005 05:40 PM
. * * Re: EastPac??????? Random Chaos   Fri Dec 02 2005 06:24 PM
. * * Re: EastPac??????? damejune2   Fri Dec 02 2005 06:27 PM
. * * Re: EastPac??????? Random Chaos   Fri Dec 02 2005 08:16 PM
. * * Re: EastPac??????? Margie   Fri Dec 02 2005 09:24 PM
. * * Re: EastPac??????? Random Chaos   Fri Dec 02 2005 11:23 PM
. * * Re: EastPac??????? Margie   Fri Dec 02 2005 11:47 PM
. * * Re: Typo MapMaster   Fri Dec 02 2005 02:24 PM
. * * Re: Typo Margie   Fri Dec 02 2005 04:03 PM
. * * Re: Circulation Psyber   Fri Dec 02 2005 10:40 AM
. * * Re: Circulation weatherwatcher999   Thu Dec 01 2005 09:49 PM
. * * Re: Circulation Random Chaos   Thu Dec 01 2005 10:47 PM
. * * Hurrican Epsilon ftlaudbob   Fri Dec 02 2005 09:38 AM
. * * Re: Epsilon outflow jet? MapMaster   Thu Dec 01 2005 06:10 PM
. * * Re: Tropical Storm Epsilon Forms in Central Atlantic HanKFranK   Tue Nov 29 2005 10:40 AM
. * * Re: Tropical Storm Epsilon Forms in Central Atlantic *DELETED* Lee-Delray   Tue Nov 29 2005 10:44 AM
. * * Re: Tropical Storm Epsilon Forms in Central Atlantic Random Chaos   Tue Nov 29 2005 10:55 AM
. * * Re: Tropical Storm Epsilon Forms in Central Atlantic Margie   Tue Nov 29 2005 11:02 AM
. * * Re: Tropical Storm Epsilon Forms in Central Atlantic Steve H1   Tue Nov 29 2005 11:53 AM
. * * Re: Tropical Storm Epsilon Forms in Central Atlantic Margie   Tue Nov 29 2005 12:11 PM
. * * Re: Tropical Storm Epsilon Forms in Central Atlantic Random Chaos   Tue Nov 29 2005 12:15 PM
. * * Re: Tropical Storm Epsilon Forms in Central Atlantic weatherwatcher999   Tue Nov 29 2005 12:31 PM
. * * Re: Tropical Storm Epsilon Forms in Central Atlantic Random Chaos   Tue Nov 29 2005 01:06 PM
. * * delta in the canaries HanKFranK   Tue Nov 29 2005 02:00 PM
. * * Re: delta in the canaries Frog   Tue Nov 29 2005 02:26 PM
. * * Re: delta in the canaries Clark   Tue Nov 29 2005 06:39 PM
. * * Is it Over? danielwAdministrator   Tue Nov 29 2005 06:59 PM
. * * Re: Is it Over? Frog   Wed Nov 30 2005 05:02 AM
. * * Re: delta in the canaries typhoon_tip   Tue Nov 29 2005 02:16 PM
. * * Re: delta in the canaries Random Chaos   Tue Nov 29 2005 02:41 PM
. * * Re: delta in the canaries typhoon_tip   Tue Nov 29 2005 03:26 PM
. * * Re: delta in the canaries Margie   Tue Nov 29 2005 04:23 PM
. * * Re: delta in the canaries Rich B   Tue Nov 29 2005 04:46 PM
. * * Re: Tropical Storm Epsilon Forms in Central Atlantic Doombot!   Tue Nov 29 2005 11:30 AM

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