Yeah I went back and looked and just figured it out.
What I thought was southward movement wasn't that at all...it was the convection suddenly being shoved SSE, by a lot of shear, right off of the LLC. If you look now it is vertically tilted to the SSE a bit, and on the water vapor, no moisture left on the NW side at all, no appreciable outflow anywhere, the LLC is exposed there.
I saw the buildup of convection again, and thought it was building back up again, but if I had checked the wv, or looked more closely at the IR, I would have seen how completely trashed the structure of the storm is at this point.
* * * * * * * The existing IR loop is kind of cool...1715Z is the last time you can see the center of the LLC in the eye of the convection, and then by the end of the loop (2245Z) the center of the LLC is completely exposed. If you track the path of the LLC during those frames, it is SW true -- 225 deg. It took five and a half hours.
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