The 12z and 18z runs of the GFS have trended even more cold-core with the development of the system, to the point that it doesn't even resemble what we saw with Delta and Epsilon. The other models, however, are more bullish, more closely resembling the 06z GFS with the evolution of the forecast area of low pressure. It bears watching over the next 3-4 days, but it appears as though the likelihood of getting a candidate for Zeta seems to be dwindling. The environment out there, just looking at satellite, is pretty stable right now...might change, might not -- we'll see.
As for Gray's forecast -- there's a thread about it over in the Storm Forum right now, along with a prediction thread for 2006 for those so inclined.
Added Friday 12/9, 3:10pm: the latest three runs of the GFS have trended back more toward a possible subtropical/tropical development out of the low forecast to develop to the north/northeast of the remnants of Epsilon. We're about 12-24hr away from such an area of low pressure forming, according to the model, and about 3-4 days from any sort of development, so we still have some time to watch things and, of course, things are subject to change. Other models are of similar evolution to the GFS and similar to what they showed yesterday, with the Canadian (big shock) being the most bullish. The NOGAPS has the low forming much further north than the others; such an evolution would not lend itself to warm-core development.
Nevertheless, something to watch out of the corner of your eyes as we move into mid-December. The NHC will watch it, I'm sure, but will again likely be sluggish to classify anything and will almost undoubtedly require a good satellite signature before an upgrade is made.
You cannot start new topics
You cannot reply to topics
HTML is disabled
UBBCode is enabled
Thread views: 50457
Note: This is NOT an official page. It is run by weather hobbyists and should not be used as a replacement for official sources.
CFHC's main servers are currently located at Hostdime.com in Orlando, FL.
Image Server Network thanks to Mike Potts and Amazon Web Services. If you have static file hosting space that allows dns aliasing contact us to help out! Some Maps Provided by:
Great thanks to all who donated and everyone who uses the site as well.
Site designed for 800x600+ resolution
When in doubt, take the word of the National Hurricane Center