Getting a typical start to a hybrid evolution out along 30W -- deep ridging over Western Europe is causing the midlatitude trough out there to fracture, leaving behind a cut-off upper-low (with a 999mb surface reflection) in its wake. Models are still suggesting that something could undergo tropical transition out there and end up classified, though as my boss noted to me from down under yesterday -- they've got the tendency to kill off anything that pops up warm-core this late in the year as they don't handle these processes all that well once a storm becomes tropical. That said, they do handle the basics of getting it there pretty well, so I'd say we've got a fair shot at seeing something out there in a few days.
Next question becomes one of what name would it take. The TAFB Atlantic discussions are tracking it as the remnant low of Epsilon. I'm not so sure on that one, though I will admit to not having tracked it quite as much as they have. That said, the NHC may have a naming dilemma on their hands if something does get going out there -- Epsilon or Zeta? Nevertheless, it'd be one for the record books and surely would bring about arguments over semantics and the like if it happened.
Whatever happens, models are forecasting it to move slowly toward the west over the next 5 days. It's so far out there, though, that it'll only be a threat to interests in the Eastern Atlantic, likely after it gets captured by another midlatitude feature later on down the line.
We'll watch this one -- I'm going to put about 60/40 odds favoring it developing right now, assuming the NHC goes forth and classifies it (noting the caveats outlined in previous posts), and will be looking to see if future discussions track this feature as Epsilon as well. If they do, then we likely will not see any addition to the numbers for this season out of this one; if not, then it's more likely anything that develops out there will become Zeta as opposed to a reincarnation of Epsilon.
You cannot start new topics
You cannot reply to topics
HTML is disabled
UBBCode is enabled
Thread views: 65556
Note: This is NOT an official page. It is run by weather hobbyists and should not be used as a replacement for official sources.
CFHC's main servers are currently located at Hostdime.com in Orlando, FL.
Image Server Network thanks to Mike Potts and Amazon Web Services. If you have static file hosting space that allows dns aliasing contact us to help out! Some Maps Provided by:
Great thanks to all who donated and everyone who uses the site as well.
Site designed for 800x600+ resolution
When in doubt, take the word of the National Hurricane Center