No invest or T-numbers on this one yet, though I wouldn't be surprised to see them started later tonight or tomorrow morning. Outer convection is on the fritz as the system starts to consolidate, particularly to the north and to the west; the outer band to the east is starting to contract a little bit as well. An inner convective band earlier today has started to try to consolidate into a small inner core, with perhaps a banding eye feature trying to become evident (though I'm not sold on that yet). I think the system has completely separated from the trough that spawned it as that feature has left off toward the north over top of the ridge near the British Isles. While some outer bands/frontal structures may still be present to the east, those are becoming more diffuse with time and don't particularly have any sharp gradients (temperature, wind shifts, etc) associated with them right now.
The phase space analyses suggest it is on the cusp of subtropical/tropical development right now, though the models are still trending shorter on the system's life span. I'm a bit more bearish on the system lasting through the forecast period than I was yesterday as the trough leaving the east coast looks like it may capture this one, though the same could have been said for Epsilon once upon a time as well. I think as the inner-core starts to organize a bit better, you'll see subtropical or tropical cyclone advisories being issued on this one; that's about the only difference between this storm and the early stages of Epsilon and Delta as named systems. Time may be of the essence, though -- if nothing is going by early Wednesday, it may run out of time. It's trending the right way, though.
Just in is the 0000UTC NHC/TAFB Tropical Discussion:
Quote: THE LOW IS SEPARATING FROM ITS FRONTS AND CONVECTION IS DEEPENING A LITTLE AROUND THE CENTER... THOUGH IT REMAINS QUITE SHALLOW. THE SATELLITE PRESENTATION IS ALSO BECOMING MORE SUBTROPICALISH WITH TIME AS THE SYSTEM LOSES FRONTAL CHARACTERISTICS AND SOME SHALLOW CONVECTION FORMS NEAR THE CENTER.
They say it bears watching, and as I've been harping on for the past 3 days or so, I certainly agree. Same odds as yesterday at getting something (i.e. Zeta) out of this one, albeit with a shorter time frame. Satellite appearance will be key for this one, as it has moved into that netherworld where the cyclone phase diagrams/model representations aren't going to add much value to the initial analysis.
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