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Archives 2000s >> 2005 News Talkbacks

Clark
Meteorologist


Reged: Wed
Posts: 1710
Re: Happy New Year -- from Zeta!?!
      Mon Jan 02 2006 10:59 PM

Zeta sorta looks like it's being sheltered from the worst of the shear by a weak upper-level low to its southwest, perhaps a feature that tailed off at the bottom of the trough that has been approaching it. It also appears that this trough is about to fracture, likely missing the storm until the next batch of westerlies gets to it in 24 hours or so.

Zeta's been helped by being as far south as it is. This upper low appears to be pivoting to the south and east around the southern side of the storm; if Zeta is deep enough vertically, it might be turned a bit more to the west or west-northwest for a brief period of time in response to this feature. It's probably deeper than it was a day or two ago, but still not terribly deep -- probably "moderately deep," a vague term I'm using to suggest a storm that probably extends to the 300-400mb level. If it moves further north, Zeta will meet those westerlies; even if it doesn't, the westerlies will likely get it at some point. There's a small chance that the upper low and the "sheltering" environment it seems to be providing sticks around and keeps Zeta going for the next few days, but any drastic change and the storm is done for.

It briefly displayed an eye-like feature on microwave imagery in the late afternoon hours, but that is gone now. Nevertheless, it has the appearance of a strong tropical storm on both microwave and conventional satellite imagery and was probably stronger in the late afternoon hours...but appears to have leveled off since and may have slightly weakened. I've got a hunch that the aforementioned trough that looks to be fracturing just to the west of the storm likely narrowed quite a bit in scope and actually helped contribute to the organization of the storm -- and not in weakening it as had been forecast. It has a little bit to do with the outflow and enhanced diffluence, topics Margie hinted at in her analysis. It's tough to predict such an evolution, however, and even tougher for these wildly atypical systems. The upper-low now is likely helping to maintain the cooler temperatures aloft; as a result of everything I've mentioned, I'd expect a steady-state storm for the next 24 hours or so (except for maybe any "corrections" upward in intensity) followed by slow weakening, perhaps a tad slower than the NHC forecast. Once the shear hits it, however, it should die fast.

We'll see how this all pans out, but it's hard to have a *lot* of confidence in anything but its ultimate demise right now.

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Entire topic
Subject Posted by Posted on
* Happy New Year -- from Zeta!?! Clark Mon Jan 02 2006 10:59 PM
. * * Re: Happy New Year -- from Zeta!?! Lee-Delray   Thu Jan 05 2006 10:37 AM
. * * Re: Happy New Year -- from Zeta!?! Randrew   Thu Jan 05 2006 11:21 AM
. * * Re: Happy New Year -- from Zeta!?! Spoken   Tue Jan 03 2006 04:43 AM
. * * Re: Happy New Year -- from Zeta!?! Random Chaos   Tue Jan 03 2006 09:27 AM
. * * Re: Happy New Year -- from Zeta!?! ltpat228   Tue Jan 03 2006 04:37 PM
. * * Re: Happy New Year -- from Zeta!?! Allison   Tue Jan 03 2006 04:45 PM
. * * Re: Happy New Year -- from Zeta!?! Lee-Delray   Tue Jan 03 2006 05:59 PM
. * * Re: Happy New Year -- from Zeta!?! ltpat228   Tue Jan 03 2006 08:23 PM
. * * Re: Happy New Year -- from Zeta!?! eduardo sanchez   Tue Jan 03 2006 05:54 PM
. * * Re: Happy New Year -- from Zeta!?! Margie   Tue Jan 03 2006 06:10 PM
. * * Re: Happy New Year -- from Zeta!?! Randrew   Tue Jan 03 2006 09:06 PM
. * * Re: Happy New Year -- from Zeta!?! Random Chaos   Tue Jan 03 2006 09:30 PM
. * * Re: Happy New Year -- from Zeta!?! Margie   Tue Jan 03 2006 09:49 PM
. * * Re: Happy New Year -- from Zeta!?! Clark   Wed Jan 04 2006 02:01 AM
. * * Re: Happy New Year -- from Zeta!?! Margie   Wed Jan 04 2006 11:45 AM
. * * Zeta!?! danielwAdministrator   Wed Jan 04 2006 03:13 AM
. * * Re: Zeta!?! Margie   Wed Jan 04 2006 12:28 PM
. * * Re: Zeta!?! Clark   Wed Jan 04 2006 12:47 PM
. * * Goodbye Zeta and, finally, 2005 Margie   Wed Jan 04 2006 01:53 PM
. * * Re: Goodbye Zeta and, finally, 2005 Randrew   Thu Jan 05 2006 04:17 AM
. * * Re: Goodbye Zeta and, finally, 2005 Randrew   Thu Jan 05 2006 04:25 AM
. * * Re: Goodbye Zeta and, finally, 2005 eduardo sanchez   Wed Jan 04 2006 06:04 PM
. * * Re: Goodbye Zeta and, finally, 2005 Margie   Wed Jan 04 2006 06:15 PM
. * * Re: Goodbye Zeta and, finally, 2005 Random Chaos   Wed Jan 04 2006 08:13 PM
. * * [Jaws music] Margie   Wed Jan 04 2006 09:09 PM
. * * Re: [Jaws music] Clark   Thu Jan 05 2006 02:27 AM
. * * Re: [Jaws music] Margie   Thu Jan 05 2006 11:48 AM
. * * Re: [Jaws music] Frog   Thu Jan 05 2006 01:23 PM
. * * Re: [Jaws music] Margie   Thu Jan 05 2006 01:57 PM
. * * Are we there yet? Margie   Thu Jan 05 2006 02:19 PM
. * * Re: Are we there yet? Randrew   Thu Jan 05 2006 03:25 PM
. * * Re: Are we there yet? eduardo sanchez   Thu Jan 05 2006 04:37 PM
. * * Re: Are we there yet? Frog   Thu Jan 05 2006 05:32 PM
. * * Re: Are we there yet? Lee-Delray   Thu Jan 05 2006 04:57 PM
. * * Re: [Jaws music] Randrew   Thu Jan 05 2006 04:31 AM
. * * Re: [Jaws music] Frog   Thu Jan 05 2006 06:03 AM
. * * Re: [Jaws music] Randrew   Thu Jan 05 2006 10:37 AM
. * * Re: [Jaws music] Clark   Thu Jan 05 2006 01:23 PM
. * * Re: [Jaws music] Domino   Thu Jan 05 2006 05:06 PM
. * * Re: [Jaws music] Clark   Thu Jan 05 2006 05:26 PM
. * * Re: [Jaws music] Frog   Thu Jan 05 2006 06:52 PM
. * * Re: [Jaws music] Clark   Thu Jan 05 2006 08:24 PM
. * * Re: [Jaws music] HanKFranK   Thu Jan 05 2006 11:12 PM
. * * Re: [Jaws music] Not Logged MM   Fri Jan 06 2006 11:28 AM
. * * Brazilian Blob Randrew   Fri Jan 06 2006 12:35 PM
. * * Re: Brazilian Blob HanKFranK   Fri Jan 06 2006 02:03 PM
. * * 2005 Hurricane Season Almost OVER! Storm Hunter   Fri Jan 06 2006 03:28 PM
. * * Ok, everybody...big collective sigh! Margie   Fri Jan 06 2006 03:51 PM
. * * Interesting Season Randrew   Fri Jan 06 2006 04:42 PM
. * * Re: [Jaws music] Random Chaos   Wed Jan 04 2006 11:13 PM
. * * Re: Happy New Year -- from Zeta!?! CaneTrackerInSoFl   Tue Jan 03 2006 09:57 PM
. * * Re: Happy New Year -- from Zeta!?! Margie   Tue Jan 03 2006 11:04 PM
. * * Re: Happy New Year -- from Zeta!?! Randrew   Tue Jan 03 2006 09:45 PM
. * * Re: Happy New Year -- from Zeta!?! Margie   Tue Jan 03 2006 10:59 AM
. * * Re: Happy New Year -- from Zeta!?! Doombot!   Sun Jan 01 2006 02:09 PM
. * * Re: Happy New Year -- from Zeta!?! HanKFranK   Sun Jan 01 2006 03:54 PM
. * * Re: Happy New Year -- from Zeta!?! Margie   Sun Jan 01 2006 05:41 PM
. * * Re: Happy New Year -- from Zeta!?! Random Chaos   Mon Jan 02 2006 08:38 PM
. * * Re: Happy New Year -- from Zeta!?! Margie   Mon Jan 02 2006 09:03 PM
. * * Re: Happy New Year -- from Zeta!?! Clark   Mon Jan 02 2006 10:59 PM
. * * Re: Happy New Year -- from Zeta!?! Goosus   Tue Jan 03 2006 01:15 AM
. * * Re: Happy New Year -- from Zeta!?! UKCloudgazer   Tue Jan 03 2006 03:53 AM
. * * Re: Happy New Year -- from Zeta!?! CaneTrackerInSoFl   Mon Jan 02 2006 09:57 PM
. * * Re: Happy New Year -- from Zeta!?! emackl   Fri Dec 30 2005 01:41 PM
. * * Re: Happy New Year -- from Zeta!?! ChessieStorm   Fri Dec 30 2005 01:44 PM
. * * Re: Happy New Year -- from Zeta!?! Jenny   Fri Dec 30 2005 03:14 PM
. * * Re: Happy New Year -- from Zeta!?! Margie   Fri Dec 30 2005 03:54 PM
. * * Re: Happy New Year -- from Zeta!?! eduardo sanchez   Fri Dec 30 2005 04:40 PM
. * * Re: Happy New Year -- from Zeta!?! Frog   Sat Dec 31 2005 05:56 AM
. * * Re: Happy New Year -- from Zeta!?! *DELETED* eduardo sanchez   Sat Dec 31 2005 06:18 AM
. * * Re: Happy New Year -- from Zeta!?! Random Chaos   Sat Dec 31 2005 09:50 AM
. * * Re: Happy New Year -- from Zeta!?! HanKFranK   Sat Dec 31 2005 12:27 PM
. * * Re: Happy New Year -- from Zeta!?! Margie   Sat Dec 31 2005 02:40 PM
. * * Re: Happy New Year -- from Zeta!?! HanKFranK   Sat Dec 31 2005 11:10 PM
. * * Re: Happy New Year -- from Zeta!?! Clark   Sun Jan 01 2006 01:59 AM
. * * Re: Happy New Year -- from Zeta!?! Doombot!   Sun Jan 01 2006 02:24 AM
. * * Re: Happy New Year -- from Zeta!?! eduardo sanchez   Sun Jan 01 2006 09:13 AM
. * * Re: Happy New Year -- from Zeta!?! Rich B   Sun Jan 01 2006 06:47 AM
. * * Modern Marvels TDW   Sun Jan 01 2006 08:56 AM
. * * Re: Happy New Year -- from Zeta!?! Random Chaos   Sun Jan 01 2006 12:54 AM
. * * Re: Happy New Year -- from Zeta!?! Random Chaos   Fri Dec 30 2005 07:00 PM
. * * Re: Happy New Year -- from Zeta!?! Margie   Fri Dec 30 2005 07:44 PM
. * * Re: Happy New Year -- from Zeta!?! Clark   Fri Dec 30 2005 10:08 PM
. * * Zeta, we hardly knew ya Margie   Fri Dec 30 2005 11:12 PM
. * * Re: Happy New Year -- from Zeta!?! Clark   Fri Dec 30 2005 11:15 PM
. * * Re: Happy New Year -- from Zeta!?! Multi-Decadal Signal   Sat Dec 31 2005 04:22 AM
. * * Re: Happy New Year -- from Zeta!?! ltpat228   Sat Dec 31 2005 12:34 PM
. * * Re: Happy New Year -- from Zeta!?! Hugh   Sat Dec 31 2005 01:03 PM
. * * Re: Happy New Year -- from Zeta!?! eduardo sanchez   Sat Dec 31 2005 05:25 AM
. * * Re: Happy New Year -- from Zeta!?! Margie   Fri Dec 30 2005 11:19 PM
. * * Re: Happy New Year -- from Zeta!?! Random Chaos   Fri Dec 30 2005 11:54 AM
. * * Re: Happy New Year -- from Zeta!?! CaneTrackerInSoFl   Fri Dec 30 2005 12:45 PM

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