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Archives 2000s >> 2005 News Talkbacks

Margie
Senior Storm Chaser


Reged: Fri
Posts: 1191
Loc: Twin Cities
Re: Happy New Year -- from Zeta!?!
      Wed Jan 04 2006 11:45 AM

"...via baroclinic enhancement leading to an enhancement of the processes that lead to tropical development ..." Thanks much, Clark that is the key to what I was wondering. I knew it had to be baroclinic in nature yet result in convection of a tropical nature, but I had no idea how that could occur. It sounds very interesting and yes I want to hear more about that when you get an opportunity.

Beven's early morning discussion was thoughtfully detailed. The steering environment is clearly complex and changing from hour to hour, and there is a lack of data on the specifics of all the atmospheric features surrounding Zeta. Ironically as soon as he pegged the SW movement Zeta took off like a shot for the west. We know this is because of changes in the environment, but it is so much more fun to blame it on Zeta being deliberately perverse.

Zeta stayed in the area of high upper level shear all night (30 to 40 kts), but right on the border of a low shear environment at the mid level, so the convection shows little sign of shear. However, unexpectectly, once again the LLC is mostly exposed with just a small amount of convection to the NE, but we know Zeta can exist just fine with that small amount of convection. The LLC is beautifully defined, especially the center (look at the 1515Z vis sat image).

Convection has not built up again, so in the absence of strong shear at the mid level there are some other factors inhibiting the increase of intensity, perhaps water temperatures or the combination of winds at different levels around Zeta. But perhaps it is simply that in this kind of marginal environment major intensification is not possible unless there is a baroclinic element, and otherwise only a low level but nevertheless steady state of intensity can be maintained, until (inevitably) encountering strong shear which will completely remove the convection and finish the TC.

The 10am discussion mentions oncoming unfavorable winds which will weaken Zeta today. With such a small amount of convection left, and no obvious improvement in the environment forthcoming, it does look like the repeated forecast of gradual weakening is now becoming the case, unless we see a repeat of intensification for a short time as already occured from interaction with a trough.

There is always so much to learn from the TC that do not make it to hurricane status. This winter the ATL has provided an interesting laboratory to study (or to simply be puzzled) by one hybrid TC after another. The automatic adaptability of the hybrid TC to ensure its survival in the marginal changing environment, by taking on various combinations of subtropical and tropical presentations, is facinating.

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Entire topic
Subject Posted by Posted on
* Happy New Year -- from Zeta!?! Clark Wed Jan 04 2006 11:45 AM
. * * Re: Happy New Year -- from Zeta!?! Lee-Delray   Thu Jan 05 2006 10:37 AM
. * * Re: Happy New Year -- from Zeta!?! Randrew   Thu Jan 05 2006 11:21 AM
. * * Re: Happy New Year -- from Zeta!?! Spoken   Tue Jan 03 2006 04:43 AM
. * * Re: Happy New Year -- from Zeta!?! Random Chaos   Tue Jan 03 2006 09:27 AM
. * * Re: Happy New Year -- from Zeta!?! ltpat228   Tue Jan 03 2006 04:37 PM
. * * Re: Happy New Year -- from Zeta!?! Allison   Tue Jan 03 2006 04:45 PM
. * * Re: Happy New Year -- from Zeta!?! Lee-Delray   Tue Jan 03 2006 05:59 PM
. * * Re: Happy New Year -- from Zeta!?! ltpat228   Tue Jan 03 2006 08:23 PM
. * * Re: Happy New Year -- from Zeta!?! eduardo sanchez   Tue Jan 03 2006 05:54 PM
. * * Re: Happy New Year -- from Zeta!?! Margie   Tue Jan 03 2006 06:10 PM
. * * Re: Happy New Year -- from Zeta!?! Randrew   Tue Jan 03 2006 09:06 PM
. * * Re: Happy New Year -- from Zeta!?! Random Chaos   Tue Jan 03 2006 09:30 PM
. * * Re: Happy New Year -- from Zeta!?! Margie   Tue Jan 03 2006 09:49 PM
. * * Re: Happy New Year -- from Zeta!?! Clark   Wed Jan 04 2006 02:01 AM
. * * Re: Happy New Year -- from Zeta!?! Margie   Wed Jan 04 2006 11:45 AM
. * * Zeta!?! danielwAdministrator   Wed Jan 04 2006 03:13 AM
. * * Re: Zeta!?! Margie   Wed Jan 04 2006 12:28 PM
. * * Re: Zeta!?! Clark   Wed Jan 04 2006 12:47 PM
. * * Goodbye Zeta and, finally, 2005 Margie   Wed Jan 04 2006 01:53 PM
. * * Re: Goodbye Zeta and, finally, 2005 Randrew   Thu Jan 05 2006 04:17 AM
. * * Re: Goodbye Zeta and, finally, 2005 Randrew   Thu Jan 05 2006 04:25 AM
. * * Re: Goodbye Zeta and, finally, 2005 eduardo sanchez   Wed Jan 04 2006 06:04 PM
. * * Re: Goodbye Zeta and, finally, 2005 Margie   Wed Jan 04 2006 06:15 PM
. * * Re: Goodbye Zeta and, finally, 2005 Random Chaos   Wed Jan 04 2006 08:13 PM
. * * [Jaws music] Margie   Wed Jan 04 2006 09:09 PM
. * * Re: [Jaws music] Clark   Thu Jan 05 2006 02:27 AM
. * * Re: [Jaws music] Margie   Thu Jan 05 2006 11:48 AM
. * * Re: [Jaws music] Frog   Thu Jan 05 2006 01:23 PM
. * * Re: [Jaws music] Margie   Thu Jan 05 2006 01:57 PM
. * * Are we there yet? Margie   Thu Jan 05 2006 02:19 PM
. * * Re: Are we there yet? Randrew   Thu Jan 05 2006 03:25 PM
. * * Re: Are we there yet? eduardo sanchez   Thu Jan 05 2006 04:37 PM
. * * Re: Are we there yet? Frog   Thu Jan 05 2006 05:32 PM
. * * Re: Are we there yet? Lee-Delray   Thu Jan 05 2006 04:57 PM
. * * Re: [Jaws music] Randrew   Thu Jan 05 2006 04:31 AM
. * * Re: [Jaws music] Frog   Thu Jan 05 2006 06:03 AM
. * * Re: [Jaws music] Randrew   Thu Jan 05 2006 10:37 AM
. * * Re: [Jaws music] Clark   Thu Jan 05 2006 01:23 PM
. * * Re: [Jaws music] Domino   Thu Jan 05 2006 05:06 PM
. * * Re: [Jaws music] Clark   Thu Jan 05 2006 05:26 PM
. * * Re: [Jaws music] Frog   Thu Jan 05 2006 06:52 PM
. * * Re: [Jaws music] Clark   Thu Jan 05 2006 08:24 PM
. * * Re: [Jaws music] HanKFranK   Thu Jan 05 2006 11:12 PM
. * * Re: [Jaws music] Not Logged MM   Fri Jan 06 2006 11:28 AM
. * * Brazilian Blob Randrew   Fri Jan 06 2006 12:35 PM
. * * Re: Brazilian Blob HanKFranK   Fri Jan 06 2006 02:03 PM
. * * 2005 Hurricane Season Almost OVER! Storm Hunter   Fri Jan 06 2006 03:28 PM
. * * Ok, everybody...big collective sigh! Margie   Fri Jan 06 2006 03:51 PM
. * * Interesting Season Randrew   Fri Jan 06 2006 04:42 PM
. * * Re: [Jaws music] Random Chaos   Wed Jan 04 2006 11:13 PM
. * * Re: Happy New Year -- from Zeta!?! CaneTrackerInSoFl   Tue Jan 03 2006 09:57 PM
. * * Re: Happy New Year -- from Zeta!?! Margie   Tue Jan 03 2006 11:04 PM
. * * Re: Happy New Year -- from Zeta!?! Randrew   Tue Jan 03 2006 09:45 PM
. * * Re: Happy New Year -- from Zeta!?! Margie   Tue Jan 03 2006 10:59 AM
. * * Re: Happy New Year -- from Zeta!?! Doombot!   Sun Jan 01 2006 02:09 PM
. * * Re: Happy New Year -- from Zeta!?! HanKFranK   Sun Jan 01 2006 03:54 PM
. * * Re: Happy New Year -- from Zeta!?! Margie   Sun Jan 01 2006 05:41 PM
. * * Re: Happy New Year -- from Zeta!?! Random Chaos   Mon Jan 02 2006 08:38 PM
. * * Re: Happy New Year -- from Zeta!?! Margie   Mon Jan 02 2006 09:03 PM
. * * Re: Happy New Year -- from Zeta!?! Clark   Mon Jan 02 2006 10:59 PM
. * * Re: Happy New Year -- from Zeta!?! Goosus   Tue Jan 03 2006 01:15 AM
. * * Re: Happy New Year -- from Zeta!?! UKCloudgazer   Tue Jan 03 2006 03:53 AM
. * * Re: Happy New Year -- from Zeta!?! CaneTrackerInSoFl   Mon Jan 02 2006 09:57 PM
. * * Re: Happy New Year -- from Zeta!?! emackl   Fri Dec 30 2005 01:41 PM
. * * Re: Happy New Year -- from Zeta!?! ChessieStorm   Fri Dec 30 2005 01:44 PM
. * * Re: Happy New Year -- from Zeta!?! Jenny   Fri Dec 30 2005 03:14 PM
. * * Re: Happy New Year -- from Zeta!?! Margie   Fri Dec 30 2005 03:54 PM
. * * Re: Happy New Year -- from Zeta!?! eduardo sanchez   Fri Dec 30 2005 04:40 PM
. * * Re: Happy New Year -- from Zeta!?! Frog   Sat Dec 31 2005 05:56 AM
. * * Re: Happy New Year -- from Zeta!?! *DELETED* eduardo sanchez   Sat Dec 31 2005 06:18 AM
. * * Re: Happy New Year -- from Zeta!?! Random Chaos   Sat Dec 31 2005 09:50 AM
. * * Re: Happy New Year -- from Zeta!?! HanKFranK   Sat Dec 31 2005 12:27 PM
. * * Re: Happy New Year -- from Zeta!?! Margie   Sat Dec 31 2005 02:40 PM
. * * Re: Happy New Year -- from Zeta!?! HanKFranK   Sat Dec 31 2005 11:10 PM
. * * Re: Happy New Year -- from Zeta!?! Clark   Sun Jan 01 2006 01:59 AM
. * * Re: Happy New Year -- from Zeta!?! Doombot!   Sun Jan 01 2006 02:24 AM
. * * Re: Happy New Year -- from Zeta!?! eduardo sanchez   Sun Jan 01 2006 09:13 AM
. * * Re: Happy New Year -- from Zeta!?! Rich B   Sun Jan 01 2006 06:47 AM
. * * Modern Marvels TDW   Sun Jan 01 2006 08:56 AM
. * * Re: Happy New Year -- from Zeta!?! Random Chaos   Sun Jan 01 2006 12:54 AM
. * * Re: Happy New Year -- from Zeta!?! Random Chaos   Fri Dec 30 2005 07:00 PM
. * * Re: Happy New Year -- from Zeta!?! Margie   Fri Dec 30 2005 07:44 PM
. * * Re: Happy New Year -- from Zeta!?! Clark   Fri Dec 30 2005 10:08 PM
. * * Zeta, we hardly knew ya Margie   Fri Dec 30 2005 11:12 PM
. * * Re: Happy New Year -- from Zeta!?! Clark   Fri Dec 30 2005 11:15 PM
. * * Re: Happy New Year -- from Zeta!?! Multi-Decadal Signal   Sat Dec 31 2005 04:22 AM
. * * Re: Happy New Year -- from Zeta!?! ltpat228   Sat Dec 31 2005 12:34 PM
. * * Re: Happy New Year -- from Zeta!?! Hugh   Sat Dec 31 2005 01:03 PM
. * * Re: Happy New Year -- from Zeta!?! eduardo sanchez   Sat Dec 31 2005 05:25 AM
. * * Re: Happy New Year -- from Zeta!?! Margie   Fri Dec 30 2005 11:19 PM
. * * Re: Happy New Year -- from Zeta!?! Random Chaos   Fri Dec 30 2005 11:54 AM
. * * Re: Happy New Year -- from Zeta!?! CaneTrackerInSoFl   Fri Dec 30 2005 12:45 PM

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