bob, i guess it's possible, but those are some long odds. as far as getting the storms here once they form... part of me wants to think that will depend on how strong la nina gets. in a lot of the recent la nina seasons where the signal was strong most of the storms developed, peaked, and recurved well out in the atlantic. in during the 1996-2001 (sans 1997) span of la ninas the most frequently affected area was the outer banks of nc. the la nina was developing in 1995 (not mature), again with a large number of recurvatures. 2003-2005 has been mostly neutral/warm. should the la nina circulation become well developed i'd think it unlikely we'll see the peculiar circulation features that led to florida's pummeling in 2004 and the assault in the gulf in 2005. can't get the csu forecast page to load to look at the chosen analog years. if i recall they fit the mold of recent la nina seasons, mostly. all winter i've been eyeballing the developing la nina, thinking of the return to the strike threat in eastern north carolina, with maybe the odd storm getting into the gulf. mostly though, recurvatures, storms clipping the ne caribbean, and maybe a good shellacking out at bermuda up to sable island. i'll try to refine my moonshine-quality ideas a little more when we do updates on our season forecasts in may. HF 0506z05april
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