Quote: What really bothers me is the fact that they said all this last year at this time."Won't be as bad as 2004".That to me is very important to note.If this year is even close to last year,than we really need to throw away the books.Maybe now is the time for the experts to think outside of the box.Will they be saying in 2007 that there is no way it wil be as bad as 2006.This is something that the experts have not been through.I don't want to be an alarmest,but I think we all need to realize that we maybe be in something that is new to ALL of us.Something to ponder.
Here is my thing. If i'm not mistaken and someone correct me if i'm wrong in the April 2005 forecast by Dr. Gray he had it at 13/7/3. This same time for 2006 he has it 17/9/5. And he is saying that it won't be as bad as last year. Why is that and the numbers are higher this year tan last?
I think this can be chalked up to the idea that 2005 was a stastical anomoly. The initial numbers are higher, but the current thought is... "Last year was a fluke." I personally am hoping that 2005 will be a 'stastical outlier' but... I'm still holding to my (even to my mind) outrageous prediction for 2006. Except near the US coast, water tempratures seem to be running about a degree (Farenheight) above average. We will have to see if that holds into the summer.
Even though i wasn't affected by last summer directly, anyone else still suffering from 'Hurricane Fatigue'?
-------------------- M. S. Earth and Atmospheric Sciences, Georgia Tech - May 2019.
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