HankFrank - My only worry about the La Nina recurve arguement is that a good number of those hurricanes came rather close to the east coast of Florida i.e., Hurricane Floyd. My concern is that considering the tendency the last two seasons for storms to actually make it to the east coast, the La Nina pattern could combine to bring them (possibly more than a couple) to FL and then recurve to NC. Does this reasoning make sense? Dr. Gray's analogs so far this year are 1964, 1996, 1999, and 2003. There were a couple of "close-calls" for Florida and hits to NC, and many close calls for both.
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