i'll believe the ENSO neutral forecast when SOI stays put near or above normal for a couple of months. it's been mostly positive all winter/spring, and that has set the feed of cool water upwelling near south america to keep coming for at least a while. but yeah, the cool signature that stretched out to the dateline disappeared earlier this month. have to see what that growing cold pool near ecuador can do. HF 0450z21april
might as well mention that the atlantic has gotten incrementally warmer relative to average during the spring. the gulf has heated some in the last week, the extent of cold anomalies in the western atlantic has shrunk, and much of the rest of the subtropical atlantic is slightly above normal. thing is, even though the whole caribbean is at threshold and the gulf will likely be there in 2-3 weeks, the westerlies are still strong deep into the tropics. doubt we'll see anything early (as in may/first half of june) unless we get some major amplification/blocking in the northern latitudes that logjams things up in the tropics... as in what happened with adrian and arlene last (astronomical) spring. HF 0550z24april
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